First-round winners, disappointments, dark horse, Stanley Cup champion and more are predictions for the NHL playoffs

Will an underdog team like the Florida Panthers do something amazing in the playoffs this year, or are the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs destined for the NHL’s first all-Canada Stanley Cup Final since 1989? Can the Vegas Golden Knights make it back to the Final Four again?

Our NHL staff members were asked these and other questions ahead of Saturday’s postseason opener by The Athletic.

In addition to selecting the biggest possible letdown and a dark horse for the playoffs, here are our predictions for winning each first-round series, the Eastern and Western Conferences, the Conn Smythe Trophy, and the Stanley Cup.

We’ve brought in national writer Sean Gentille, analytics whiz Shayna Goldman, and NHL betting specialist Jesse Granger to assess and dissect the selections.

initial round of series forecasts.

Atlantic Division matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning versus. Florida Panthers.

Gentille: This seems roughly accurate. It makes sense that for one in four people, “They’re the Lightning” will be sufficient. I understand that, too, but Tampa Bay’s defensive depth concerns prevent me from choosing them.

Goldman: I appreciate that Tampa Bay’s lone shot feels like it belongs in Game 7; it gives me the impression that “they know what it takes.”.

Granger: I was among the select few who selected the Lightning. In the end, Andrei Vasilevskiy has begun to resemble his old self, even though the Panthers are still the superior squad overall. In the playoffs, he’s 8-2 against Florida with a .950 save percentage and two shutouts. Tampa Bay can pull off the upset, but it won’t be simple.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Hockey Team.

Gentille: I promise you that there would be a closer to 50/50 split if these were the exact rosters for the Coyotes and the Flames, or whatever.

Granger: Sean, I completely agree. Even though the odds suggest that these teams are closely matched, history has influenced the votes in this case. Having said that, I chose Boston (not because of the history, but because of the extreme goaltending mismatch).

Metro Division: Washington Capitals against… New York Rangers.

Gentille: There is an employee who genuinely adores Charlie Lindgren. Though it’s hard to blame them, no.

Goldman: Maybe we would feel a little differently if the Capitals had been able to secure the second wild-card spot a little sooner.

Granger: The series is going to be brief.

Metro Division: The New York Islanders against. Hurricanes from Carolina.

Gentille: The previous season, first-round upset pick Isles over Canes was quite popular. It appears that we won’t be rerunning that one.

Goldman: It will be hilarious if the Canes lose in the first round of the playoffs in the year that they finally add a legitimate goal scorer in Jake Guentzel, as we have all been screaming for them to do.

Granger: The Hurricanes are obviously superior on the roster, and they also appear to be more adept at the areas where the Islanders are weakest. Carolina seems to be in a great matchup with this opponent.

Central Division Matchup: Vegas Golden Knights versus. Dallas Stars.

Gentille: Although I must admit that I’m shocked by how lopsided the vote is on this one, the Stars were (and still are) my favorite team to win the Cup. It’s almost time for Mark Stone to return to Vegas. That should be worth more than 15% on its own.

All of us are betting on the Stars and praying that Vegas wins so that the LTIR debate doesn’t come up. I think there is one thing that is certain: this series will endure.

Granger: Although I believe Dallas has a stronger roster, I am concerned about the Stars’ system matchup. Good defensive teams that play a compact zone around the net have always had difficulty stopping Pete DeBoer’s possession-heavy offensive scheme that fires tons of shots from outside. Vegas made it to the conference finals last year in large part because of it, and it might happen again.

Central Division: Avalanche of Colorado against. Winnipeg Jets.

Gentille: That is a sizable number of people endorsing Alexandar Georgiev.

Goldman: I’m not sure if we’re put too much stock in Winnipeg or if we simply believe that Colorado’s star power will win out.

Granger: I think Colorado has a slight advantage in the lineups, but the goaltending is so lopsided that it will take an incredible series for the Avs to win this.

Nashville Predators versus… in the Pacific Division. Vancouver Canucks.

Gentille: Juuse Saros is what makes this series, in my opinion, the most intriguing of the first round.

Goldman: Sean, I agree with you on that point. This seems like a toss-up that could go all seven ways.

Granger: It seems like the Canucks are here too, after being treated disrespectfully the entire season. Seattle cruises, I believe.

Pacific Division matchup: Los Angeles Kings versus. The Edmonton Oilers.

Gentille: Is the King going all Blutarsky?

Goldman: My belief is that many of us gave the Kings a better opportunity to prevail against Edmonton in the previous few seasons. I take it that this will be the year that they actually pull it off?

Granger: The Kings would have been on their way to Dallas if they had sealed the deal with Chicago in the last two minutes of Thursday’s game. Rather, they are taking on an Oilers team that, it seems, nobody thinks they can beat.

The Cup’s dark horse.

Note: According to BetMGM, one must have +2,000 or worse odds to win the Cup.

Gentille: Despite the odds and the rules, the Lightning ought to be given an exception in this case.

Granger: I concur.

Goldman: Nashville has the potential to be a disruptor. Here, it all makes sense.

Who will be the biggest letdown, the favorite?

To win the Cup, one must have odds of +1,000 or higher, according to BetMGM.

Gentille: And now the chat has been invaded by Georgiev skeptics. Hi there.

Goldman: I understand why Colorado’s stock is so high, but Dallas’s lack of a Round 1 matchup against Vegas surprises me.

Granger: It almost seems wrong to call the losers of first-round series “disappointments” because there are so many evenly matched contests between contenders. “.

winner of the Eastern Conference.

Gentille: It’s interesting to see the Bruins completely excluded from this voting, though I wouldn’t pick them because I actually believe they lose to Toronto.

Goldman: Carolina seems to have emerged as the team to beat after the deadline. It’s true—the Jake Guentzel Effect!

Granger: It surprises me a little that the Rangers didn’t receive more attention in this. They have an outstanding goalie who is developing at the perfect time, making them a very complete team.

winner of the Western Conference.

Gentille: Stars versus The Field? Shocker. After all that deadline drama at the top of the West, this is what’s happened?

Goldman: To further compound this lopsidedness, I chose Dallas. However, I think that this should be much closer because of how stacked the West is.

Granger: The Oilers’ general image has been wildly inconsistent this season, and by the end of the first round, it seems possible that they will have received a lot more votes than this. Though not many agreed, I tried to get ahead of it.

winner of the Stanley Cup.

Gentille: I never wavered in my preseason choice of the Stars. Honesty is Important.

Goldman: It’s really shocking that Florida fell to this level after garnering so many votes to win the East. Many of us were disappointed when they lost in the final.

Granger: I think the Rangers should win it all, but I can’t recall a postseason in which I thought more teams had a genuine chance.

Winner: Conn Smythe.

Gentille: I’m deeply in love with Sebastian Aho, but his ranking at No. 1. It is confirmation of Dallas’ excellence. The Stars gave their votes to five different players.

Goldman: I believe that the list’s most intriguing feature is the number of names at the top (apart from Nathan MacKinnon) who are not the clear favorites to win the Hart Trophy. Another person might receive their MVP opportunity.

Granger: There’s no consensus on who each team’s MVP is, and the field is still very open. This is going to be such an enjoyable few months.

(Top image: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images of Mark Stone winning the Stanley Cup in 2023).