Six months after Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel, the war in Gaza is in limbo.
“We are in the middle of the war,” Netanyahu said in a statement Sunday.
The officials interpret Netanyahu’s actions this way: As long as a war is going on, elections that could oust him are less likely.
State of play: Israeli defense officials say their military has significantly decreased its footprint in Gaza in the last two months.
There’s much more fighting there than in Gaza, but Netanyahu doesn’t call it a war, officials say.
It was an attempt to rebrand the goal of destroying Hamas’ military and governance abilities.
But others believe he’s using it to avoid acknowledging that the Gaza war — in which more than 32,000 Palestinians have been killed — has largely ended, at least when it comes to widespread fighting.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated with new figures on the IDF’s troop presence in Gaza and comments from Netanyahu.
Six months after Hamas’ Oct. Seven terrorist attacks on Israel have left the Gaza War in limbo. But for the embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is struggling to stay in politics, that might not be entirely a negative thing.
Leading the news: Netanyahu has threatened to launch an attack on Rafah in order to exterminate Hamas militants, but he has refrained thus far due to mounting pressure not to.
Although Israel is withdrawing its troops from Gaza and has not been carrying out any significant military operations there, it is still carrying out occasional raids and airstrikes, such as the mishandled one that claimed the lives of seven World Central Kitchen employees.
Additionally, a ceasefire is nowhere in sight, despite growing calls from U. S. officials as well as numerous others across the globe.
Additionally, there is currently no imminent deal for the 134 hostages that Hamas is holding, despite intermittent negotiations.
In a statement released on Sunday, Netanyahu declared, “We are in the middle of the war.”. We are about to achieve complete triumph. “.”.
Close up: Numerous U. s. Considering all of this, Israeli officials are certain that even though the incredibly unpopular Netanyahu appears to be contained, he may believe that a protracted conflict improves his chances of holding onto power.
Officially, Netanyahu’s actions make sense because elections that could remove him are less likely to occur while a war is raging. Additionally, the longer time goes on, the more opportunities he will have to make a political comeback.
As far as senior government officials go, Netanyahu is the only one who has refused to own up to the mistakes that resulted in the greatest Jewish massacre since the Holocaust.
Recent polls suggest that the majority of Israelis want him to step down, and that if elections were held today, his Likud party—which currently controls the government—would lose nearly half of its Knesset seats.
However, there’s no quick way for Israel to hold fresh elections.
Current situation: According to Israeli defense officials, during the past two months, the military has drastically reduced its presence in Gaza.
Instead of the three divisions (roughly 30,000 troops) that the Israeli Defense Forces had in Gaza in January, the force now only possesses one brigade (roughly 4,000 troops).
The IDF is currently only conducting restricted ground operations in Gaza and concentrating on raiding particular compounds, like the Shifa hospital, where authorities claim a large number of Islamic Jihad and Hamas militants have been hiding.
Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in increasing and more intense fighting along the Lebanese border during this time. According to officials, there is a lot more fighting there than in Gaza, but Netanyahu does not consider it a war.
Overall: Not too long after the Oct. In response to the September 7 attack, Netanyahu outlined three goals for Israel’s response: free the hostages, destroy Hamas’s military and political infrastructure in Gaza, and end the terror threat to Israel.
It seems that the first objective has been accomplished after six months of fighting. There is very little chance that Hamas will launch a major attack against Israel in the near future.
Netanyahu declared a fresh objective in December, but his cabinet has never given its approval. He referred to it as “Total Victory.”. “.
It was an attempt to reposition the objective of undermining Hamas’ capacity for rule and military might.
A ground invasion of Rafah, the only city in Gaza where Hamas’ military is still operational and where over a million Palestinians are seeking shelter, was the provocative scenario involved.
Although he hasn’t done much to move forward with the Rafah operation, Netanyahu has talked a lot about it.
He has stated in public four times in the last two months that he has given his approval to attack plans. However, the IDF has not received his approval.
Both the large-scale operation and the necessary mass civilian evacuation beforehand are beyond the capabilities of the IDF’s current forces in Gaza.
You. s. It is evident from official statements that they oppose attacking Rafah.
However, the majority of Israelis, 61 percent in a recent Channel 13 survey, do not believe that Hamas’ defeat will bring an end to the war.
Between the lines: According to certain Israeli officials, Netanyahu uses the possibility of a Rafah attack as leverage when negotiating the release of Hamas hostages.
However, some think he’s using it as a cover to deny that, at least in terms of widespread fighting, the Gaza war, in which over 32,000 Palestinians have lost their lives, has essentially come to an end.
According to them, if the war ends, some of Netanyahu’s objectives have not been fulfilled, and debates about how Israel arrived at its current state of affairs will intensify.
Negotiations over the hostages are taking center stage, with the Rafah operation placed on hold.
Director of the CIA Bill Burns will attempt to break the impasse in the negotiations when he meets in Cairo on Sunday with the prime minister of Qatar and the heads of the spy services in Egypt and Israel. In town will also be a delegation from Hamas.
Many officials are doubting Netanyahu’s determination to negotiate a release of the hostages.
While he isn’t issuing orders to intensify the pressure, Netanyahu claims that only military action will persuade Hamas to accept a fair agreement.
President Biden pointed out during their call on Thursday that he sends negotiators for multiple rounds of talks but doesn’t give them much leeway to reach an agreement.
In recent days, hostage-family members have attacked Netanyahu, alleging that he fears a deal will force his right-wing allies out of his governing coalition and force elections.
In a statement released on Sunday, Netanyahu stated, “We are ready for a deal but not for capitulation to Hamas’ extreme demands.”.
What to watch: According to a Channel 13 survey, 51% of Israelis desire elections to take place before the year ends. Not so for Netanyahu, whose tenure as prime minister lasts for three years.
His recent press conferences have centered around the idea that elections would benefit only Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
The main political rival of Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, who serves in Israel’s war cabinet, has called for elections in September.
Netanyahu shot that down right away. Netanyahu and his ultra-orthodox and ultranationalist allies would still control a majority of seats in the Knesset even if Gantz were to withdraw from Israel’s ruling coalition.
The growing protests, which have gained momentum in recent weeks and are mostly calling for a hostage deal, pose a potential threat to Netanyahu’s coalition. Tens of thousands of Israelis protested in Tel Aviv on Saturday, demanding elections.
However, these demonstrations’ reach is still rather narrow. If they gain steam and look more like the massive pro-democracy protests of Netanyahu’s government that occurred before Oct. 7, he will find it much more difficult to hold onto power.
Not directly connected to October is the biggest danger to Netanyahu’s rule. 7–It’s his ultra-orthodox allies’ request that he enact legislation freeing ultra-orthodox men from military duty.
His deadline to find a solution has been extended by the religious leaders of those parties to May, after Passover. Since most Israelis are forced to serve in the military, they are against the idea.
Editor’s note: New information about the IDF’s troop presence in Gaza and quotes from Netanyahu have been added to this story.
