Ukraine mobilised men over the age of 27 when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of the country on February 24, 2022.
But only a third of its million men and women in uniform are on active combat duty, facing what Kyiv estimates are 462,000 Russian soldiers, and Russia’s Putin claims are 617,000.
In theory, Ukraine has a pool of 10 million men aged 18-61 it can draw on to replace demobilised troops.
While there was “no consensus” on the sending of Western ground troops to Ukraine, “nothing should be excluded.
We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war,” Macron said.
“The Kremlin has for over a decade now … spoken of a war with the West,” Rory Finnin, a Ukraine historian at Cambridge University, told Al Jazeera.
“We may not have been interested in that war, but clearly their war is interested in us.
I don’t think it’s simply a war against Ukraine … Russia wants to see dysfunction and division in the West.
It’s the only way it can amplify its own power.”Jade McGlynn, a Russia expert at the War Studies Department of King’s College London, agrees that Russia is psychologically prepared to fight the West directly.
Following Vladimir Putin’s reelection, Russia appears prepared to bolster its offensive forces, leaving Kyiv with no option but to follow suit.
Lawmakers in Ukraine are arguing a bill that could make or break their nation’s chances in this war, in a battle that is taking place far from the front lines.
The bill would double Ukraine’s standing army by half by recruiting up to 500,000 new soldiers.
This could finally allow Ukraine to loosen Russia’s grip on its southern regions, splitting the front in half and pressuring the Kremlin to engage in negotiations on Kyiv’s terms. The increase is ten times as many additional soldiers as the 12 brigades Ukraine raised for its 2023 counteroffensive.
Ukraine is engaged in a war of attrition that, according to experts, favors Russia because it has more manpower resources, so it may not have much choice. Additionally, after being re-elected, it appears likely that Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, will mobilize additional forces.
Tim Less, a professor at Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics, told Al Jazeera that “Putin is… planning to mobilize more men, once the election is over.”.
Less stated that among other things, he has prohibited the country’s fighting-age men from leaving and barred antiwar candidate Boris Nadezhdin from running for office out of concern that he would incite opposition to the war effort. “Putin seems to have come to the conclusion that additional mobilization is necessary to reinforce Russia’s military edge, and he intends to carry out this decision. “.
Congress Republicans’ decision to halt US aid, possibly indefinitely, may have led Putin to believe that 2024 was his year to win the war, which has forced Ukraine into a dire situation.
As the bill is being discussed in the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, Inna Sovsun, a member of the Security, Defense, and Intelligence Committee, said, “It’s been two years of hell for us.”.
Since Russia’s invasion, her partner has been fighting on the front lines, and she is in favor of bringing in more troops—but only after those who have already served can see their ends coming.
“Some people go about their lives normally. If there is a time in the future when he will be demobilized and replaced, that would be great to know. There is currently no answer to this, which is being vigorously debated, she told Al Jazeera.
When Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the country mobilized men over the age of 27. With only 33% of its one million men and women in uniform serving in active combat, Kyiv estimates that it is up against 462,000 Russian soldiers, while Putin claims that there are 617,000.
The remaining personnel of Ukraine are assigned to support roles. Among them are tens of thousands of people stationed at the currently peaceful northern border with Belarus, which served as the source of Moscow’s initial major offensive against Kyiv in case it was replicated.
The military claims that while a more effective rotation of people in uniform might fill some combat roles, it would not be sufficient.
Closing the draft’s loopholes will yield tens of thousands of additional beneficiaries.
Young men raced to enroll in PhD programs at private universities following Russia’s invasion, and the number of marriages to women with mild disabilities increased. These and additional exemptions are being closed by the committee.
However, that’s also the point at which the easy choices end and the hard ones start.
The issue was brought up by then-Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi last December after the counteroffensive failed to carry out his plan and he demanded the addition of 500,000 troops.
“After meeting with his top generals, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, stated, “This is a significant number.” He seemed skeptical that the economy could afford to spare them or that allies could provide the necessary training and equipment.
Zelenskyy remarked, “I told them I need more arguments to support this direction, because this is a matter of people first and foremost.”.
A bill to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25 was already approved by the Verkhovna Rada in the spring of 2023.
It is thought that in part because of this disagreement, Zelenskyy, who did not sign it, fired Zaluzhny last month.
“In reality, Zelenskyy is attempting to obtain additional weaponry from the West, which he views as a substitute for or requirement for mobilization, while enabling his new commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskii, to evaluate the situation on the ground,” Less stated.
According to Sovsun, parliament “will get it done by the end of March” and the lowering of the draft age is a given.
Punitive measures, like freezing draft dodgers’ bank accounts or prohibiting them from selling property, that were part of a January 4 draft and were viewed as violations of human rights have been dropped by the committee. However, the travel ban outside of Ukraine is probably still in place.
According to Sovsun, the current discussion is centered on developing enlistment incentives, like a 36-month term limit and a guarantee of six-month rotations.
“We don’t particularly like the wording, but the 36-month [term limit] is still in effect in a very specific way that those who serve will have the right to demobilize after 36 months based on the commander-in-chief’s decision,” the spokesperson stated. In essence, nothing happens if no decision is made. [We desire] automaticity. “.
Although the move might result in the withdrawal of seasoned soldiers in March 2025, Sovsun thinks it is essential.
Certain units have been deployed to combat zones for a duration of 24 months. That is ineffective and very difficult. People must get enough sleep, she stated.
Theoretically, demobilized troops can be replaced by 10 million men in Ukraine between the ages of 18 and 61. That figure might be lower in actuality.
48 million people called Ukraine home in 2001, but up to 25% of that country is either voluntarily or involuntarily under occupation, and many more left the country’s unoccupied western regions when the invasion occurred.
And there’s the human element Zelenskyy mentioned.
“People are incredibly worn out. Everyone has been affected by the war, so I began to wonder, “How long can people live like this? “Sovsun remarked.
Russia-NATO war?
On February 26, French President Emmanuel Macron brought up the possibility of sending in NATO troops, raising the possibility of a conflict between Russia and NATO, presumably in part to bolster Ukrainian morale and send a message to Moscow.
Nothing should be excluded, even though there was “no consensus” regarding the deployment of Western ground forces in Ukraine. Macron declared, “We will stop at nothing to prevent Russia from winning this war.”.
The idea of deploying forces in supporting roles, such as clearing mines, manning defenses, and training Ukrainian soldiers, has been expressly discussed by Macron’s generals and cabinet members, according to Less. This will free up the Ukrainians to engage the Russians on the front lines.
Russia, getting ready to take on the West head-on, might have a different perspective.
Rory Finnin, a historian from Cambridge University who studies Ukraine, told Al Jazeera that “the Kremlin has spoken of a war with the West… for over a decade now.”.
Even though we weren’t interested in that war, it’s obvious that theirs is an interest of ours. It’s not just a war against Ukraine, in my opinion. Russia wants to see disintegration and disarray in the West. It cannot increase its own power in any other way. “.
Russia is psychologically ready to confront the West head-on, according to Jade McGlynn, a specialist in the country from King’s College London’s War Studies Department.
It would have been different if the West had been completely opposed to Russia [during the Cold War], but there are situations in which hatred isn’t the worst thing. For instance, being disregarded,” McGlynn said to Al Jazeera. And it keeps coming up. “.
But for the time being, Ukrainians must rely solely on their strength.
“War is an unjust place,” Sovsun declared. “This weight of war should at least be distributed more equally; there is no just way to decide who should serve and who shouldn’t, nor is there a fair way to do this. “.
