Where next for Iran now its ‘Axis of Resistance’ is shattered?

What will happen to Iran now that its “Axis of Resistance” has been destroyed?

four hours before.

Hawley Caroline.

a diplomat’s correspondent.

Posters of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are torn on the floor of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, amid broken glass and stomped flags. There are also ripped photos of Hassan Nasrallah, the former head of Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement, who was killed in a September Israeli airstrike in Beirut.

The elaborate turquoise tiles on the exterior of the embassy remain intact, but the giant image of Iran’s highly influential former military Revolutionary Guards commander, Qasem Soleimani, who was killed on Trump’s orders during his first term as president, is defaced and serves as a reminder of the series of setbacks Iran has endured, which culminated on Sunday in the overthrow of a crucial ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Will the Islamic Republic choose a more conservative stance or resume talks with the West as it recovers from its setbacks and gets ready for another Donald Trump administration? Additionally, how stable is the current regime?

In his first speech following Assad’s overthrow, Khamenei was trying to hide a strategic loss. Being in charge and the supreme authority in Iran since 1989, he is now 85 years old and faces the impending challenge of succession.

He asserted that “Iran is strong and powerful – and will become even stronger,”.

He emphasized that the “scope of resistance” against Israel, which consists of Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias, would only get stronger under the Iran-led alliance in the Middle East.

“The resistance increases with the amount of pressure applied. The more crimes you commit, the more determined you get. It grows larger the more you struggle with it,” he said.

However, the regime is in shock from the regional fallout from the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacres in Israel, which Iran encouraged, if not condoned.

With Iran firmly on the defensive, the Middle East has changed as a result of Israel’s retaliation against its adversaries.

Former US diplomat and deputy national security advisor James Jeffrey, who currently serves at the nonpartisan Wilson Center think-tank, agrees, “All the dominoes have been falling.”.

Israel destroyed the Iranian Axis of Resistance, and the current situation in Syria has further demolished it. Apart from the Houthis in Yemen, Iran has no other viable regional proxies. “.”.

Iran continues to support strong militias in Iraq, its neighbor. However, Mr. Jeffrey asserts that this is a completely unprecedented breakdown of a regional powerhouse. “.”.

Assad was last seen in public on December 1st, when he met with the Iranian Foreign Minister and promised to “crush” the rebels who were advancing on the Syrian capital. He fled the country and is now in Russia, according to the Kremlin.

Hossein Akbari, Iran’s ambassador to Syria, called Assad the “front end of the Axis of Resistance.”. But when Bashar al-Assad’s time came, a weakened Iran, stunned by the abrupt disintegration of his army, was unable and unwilling to defend him.

The lynchpin of the “Axis of Resistance,” the only other state, vanished in a few short days.

Iran’s network construction process.

Iran has been constructing its network of militias for decades in order to deter Israeli attacks and retain influence in the region. This has its roots in the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

In the ensuing conflict with Iraq, Hafez, the father of Bashar al-Assad, sided with Iran.

Iran’s Shia clerics and the Assads, who belong to the Alawite sect, a minority branch of Shia Islam, formed an alliance that strengthened Iran’s position of power in the largely Sunni Middle East.

Additionally, Syria served as a vital supply line for Iran to reach Hezbollah, its ally in Lebanon, and other armed groups in the region.

Iran had previously aided Assad. In 2011, a popular uprising turned into a civil war, and Tehran supplied weapons, fuel, and fighters when he looked vulnerable. There, over 2,000 Iranian generals and soldiers who were supposedly acting as “military advisers” were slain.

Director of the Middle East and North Africa program at think tank Chatham House, Dr. Sanam Vakil, says, “We know that Iran spent $30 billion to $50 billion [£23.5 billion to £39 billion] in Syria [since around 2011].”.

The pipeline that Iran could have used to resupply Hezbollah in Lebanon and possibly other groups has now been cut.

Dr. Vakil contends that “the Axis of Resistance was an opportunistic network which was intended to give Iran strategic depth and shield Iran from direct strike and attack.”. “This tactic has obviously failed. “.

Iran’s decision regarding its next course of action will be influenced not only by the fall of Assad but also by the fact that its own military performed significantly worse than Israel in the two nations’ first-ever direct clash earlier this year.

Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Israel in October were mostly intercepted, though some damaged multiple airbases. Iranian missile production and air defenses were severely damaged by Israeli strikes. According to Mr. Jeffrey, “the missile threat has proven to be a paper tiger.”.

Another significant embarrassment for Iran was the July assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the former leader of Hamas, in Tehran.

The future course of the nation.

The Islamic Republic’s survival will be its top priority going forward. Dr. Vakil states that in order to withstand the pressure that Trump is likely to face, “it will be looking to reposition itself, reinforce what’s left of the Axis of Resistance, and re-invest in regional ties.”.

Dennis Horak served as the Canadian charge d’affaires in Iran for three years. He asserts that the regime is “quite resilient, with tremendous levers of power, and a lot more they could unleash.”.

He contends that in the event of a conflict with Israel, it still has significant firepower that could be used against Gulf Arab nations. He warns against considering Iran to be a paper tiger.

But with an unpredictable Donald Trump set to take office in the US and Israel having proven its ability to target its adversaries, it has been severely undermined on a global scale.

According to Dr. Vakil, “Iran will undoubtedly be reevaluating its defense doctrine which was primarily reliant on the Axis of Resistance.”.

In order to give the regime more security, it will also be evaluating its nuclear program and attempting to determine whether more funding is required. “..”.

nuclear capability.

Iran maintains that its nuclear program is completely non-military. However, since Donald Trump backed out of a carefully crafted agreement reached in 2015 that limited its nuclear activities in exchange for the removal of some economic sanctions, it has made significant progress.

Iran was allowed to enrich uranium to a purity of 3.67 percent under the agreement. Commercial nuclear power plants can be powered by low-enriched uranium. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, Iran is now considerably accelerating its ability to produce uranium enriched to 60%.

Iran claims that it is taking this action in retaliation for the sanctions that Trump restored and that persisted while the Biden administration attempted and failed to bring the agreement back to life.

Ninety percent or more of the uranium used in nuclear bombs is weapons-grade.

Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, has hinted that Iran’s actions could be a reaction to the nation’s regional setbacks.

Nuclear proliferation specialist Darya Dolzikova of the Royal United Services Institute think tank says, “It’s a really concerning picture.”. “Compared to 2015, the nuclear program is now in a totally different state. “,”.

Although it would also need to build a warhead and mount a delivery system, which experts say could take months or even a year, Iran could now enrich enough uranium for a weapon in roughly a week, if it so chooses.

Their proximity to a nuclear weapon that can be delivered is unknown. However, Iran now has a wealth of knowledge that will be difficult to reverse,” Ms. Dolzikova continues.

The Western nations are concerned.

According to Dr. Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University and the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, “it’s obvious that Trump will try to re-impose his’maximum pressure’ strategy on Iran.”.

However, I believe he will also attempt to reestablish talks with Iran in an effort to persuade it to reduce its nuclear arsenal. “..”.

According to Dr. Zimmt, Israel will wait to see what Donald Trump does and how Iran reacts, even though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed a desire for regime change.

Iran probably doesn’t want to start a full-scale conflict.

“As a businessman, I believe Donald Trump will try to engage Iran and make a deal,” political science professor Nasser Hadian of Tehran University says.

“He will exert the greatest amount of pressure to get it to the table if that doesn’t occur. “..”.

“There is a chance that, if he goes for maximum pressure, things go wrong and we get a war that neither side wants,” he says, adding that he favors a deal over conflict. “,”.

“Simmering rage on a wide scale.”.

As it gets ready for the Supreme Leader’s succession, the Islamic Republic also has a number of internal issues to deal with.

“Khamenei is looking to leave Iran in a stable place and worries about his legacy and transition when he goes to bed,” Dr. Vakil said.

The nationwide protests in 2022 after the death of Mahsa Jina Amini, a young woman who was accused of improperly donning the hijab, severely rocked the regime.

The rebellion, which called into question the authority of the clerical establishment, was violently put down.

Anger at a government that has invested heavily in foreign wars while many Iranians are unemployed and dealing with high inflation is still simmering and pervasive.

Furthermore, many of Iran’s younger generation are angry about the social constraints imposed by the regime, and they are becoming more and more alienated from the Islamic Revolution. In defiance of the regime, women continue to risk arrest every day by going out without covering their hair.

Iran watchers, however, assert that this does not imply that the regime will fall like it did in Syria.

According to Mr. Jeffrey, “I don’t think the Iranian people are going to rise up again because Iran has lost its empire, which was very unpopular anyway,”.

As it attempts to strengthen its internal security, Mr. Horak thinks that its tolerance of dissent will be further reduced. A long-awaited new law that toughens penalties for women who don’t wear the hijab is about to take effect. However, he does not think that the regime is in danger right now.

“Millions still support it, but millions of Iranians don’t,” he claims. “I don’t believe it will topple over very soon. “.

But after so many other setbacks to its regional influence, the loss of its lynchpin in Syria has made the job of Iran’s rulers much more difficult as it manages anger at home.

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