Danish and European officials have responded negatively, saying Greenland is not for sale and its territorial integrity must be preserved.
And how could the aspirations for independence among Greenland’s population of 56,000, under Danish control for 300 years, affect the final outcome?
But independence for Greenland has been on the agenda for many years, and some say the debate could even go in the opposite direction.
Greenland votes for independence, seeks closer ties with US There is a general consensus in Greenland that independence will happen eventually, and also that if Greenland votes for it, Denmark will accept and ratify it.
Trump invades Greenland The “nuclear option” seems far-fetched, but with Trump failing to rule out military action it has to be considered.
11 hours prior.
Robert Greenall in London, and Laura Gozzi in Copenhagen.
the BBC News.
US President-elect Donald Trump has expressed a renewed interest in annexing Greenland, the largest island in the world and a largely autonomous Danish territory in the Arctic, in recent weeks.
During his first term as president, he first hinted that he intended to purchase Greenland in 2019. This week, he went one step further and refused to rule out using military or economic force to seize control of the territory.
In response, European and Danish authorities have stated that Greenland’s territorial integrity must be maintained and that it is not for sale.
With two NATO allies at odds over a vast area that is 80% covered in ice but has significant untapped mineral wealth, how might this unusual scenario unfold?
How might the outcome be impacted by the 56,000 people who live in Greenland, which has been ruled by Denmark for 300 years, wanting to become independent?
In this article, we examine four potential futures for Greenland.
No action is taken after Trump loses interest.
Given the threat posed by China and Russia vying for influence in the area, some people believe that Trump’s action is merely bluster intended to persuade Denmark to strengthen Greenland’s security.
A new military package worth $1.05 billion (£1.2 billion) for the Arctic was announced by Denmark last month. Although it had been planned prior to Trump’s comments, the Danish defense minister called the announcement made just hours after them a “irony of fate.”.
“The key point of Trump’s remarks was that Denmark must fulfill its responsibilities in the Arctic or allow the United States to do so,” says Elisabet Svane, chief political correspondent for Politiken.
As an important step towards independence, Greenland is taking advantage of the opportunity to increase its international authority, while Trump is “positioning himself before entering office,” according to Marc Jacobsen, an associate professor at the Royal Danish Defence College.
Therefore, Trump has undoubtedly raised awareness of the problem, even if he were to lose interest in Greenland going forward, which Professor Jacobsen believes is the most likely scenario.
However, the issue of Greenland’s independence has been discussed for a long time, and some believe it may even go the other way.
“I’ve observed that the Greenland PM has been speaking more calmly in recent days, i.e. Svane acknowledges that we do desire independence, but only in the long term.
Greenland wants stronger ties with the US and votes for independence.
It is widely believed in Greenland that independence will eventually be achieved and that Denmark will accept and ratify it if Greenland votes in favor of it.
Greenlanders are unlikely to vote for independence, though, unless they are assured that they will be able to retain the Danish subsidies they currently receive for welfare and medical care.
“The Greenland prime minister may be furious right now, but if he decides to call a referendum, he will need a compelling story about how to save the Greenland economy and welfare system,” Ulrik Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, told the BBC.
The US’s current free association with Pacific nations, including the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau, is one potential next step.
Both Greenland and the Faroe Islands have faced opposition from Denmark in the past, but Dr. Gad claims that current Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is not adamantly opposed to this status.
“Danish understanding of the Greenland historical experience is way better than it was 20 years ago,” he claims, acknowledging Denmark’s acceptance of colonial responsibility.
“It might convince [Frederiksen] that it’s better to keep Denmark in the Arctic and maintain some sort of connection to Greenland, even if it’s a looser one,” he continues, because of the recent talks.
However, in recent years, it has become evident that Greenland cannot eliminate the United States, even if it can eliminate Denmark. The Americans, who saw the island as essential to their security after seizing it during World War Two, never really left.
A 1951 agreement effectively gave the US anything it desired while upholding Denmark’s fundamental sovereignty over the island.
According to Dr. Gad, representatives from Greenland had communicated with the previous two US administrations regarding Washington’s involvement.
“Now they realize the United States will never leave,” he said.
Trump increases financial pressure.
It has been suggested that Trump’s economic rhetoric poses the greatest threat to Denmark because it would force Denmark to make some sort of concessions over Greenland due to the US’s sharply rising tariffs on Danish and even EU goods.
According to Professor Jacobsen, the Danish government has been getting ready for that, and not just because of the Arctic region.
Some Danish and other European businesses are now thinking about establishing production facilities in the US as a result of Trump’s threats to impose universal 10 percent tariffs on all US imports, which could seriously impede European growth, among other things.
Benjamin Cote of the international law firm Pillsbury told the website MarketWatch that one way to increase tariffs would be to invoke the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
The pharmaceutical industry in Denmark is one of the primary sectors that could be impacted. In addition to the diabetes medication Ozempic, which is manufactured by the Danish company Novo Nordisk, the United States imports most of its insulin and hearing aids from Denmark.
According to analysts, the American public would not approve of the price increase that would follow from these actions.
Greenland is invaded by Trump.
Trump has not ruled out military action, so even though the “nuclear option” seems unrealistic, it must be taken into consideration.
In essence, the US already has bases and a large number of troops in Greenland, so assuming control would not be difficult.
According to Professor Jacobsen, “the US has de facto control already,” and Trump’s comments appeared to be ill-informed and he didn’t grasp their significance.
However, any military action by Washington would precipitate a global crisis.
“They invade NATO if they invade Greenland,” Svane asserts. “So it ends there. Article 5 would need to be activated. And there won’t be any NATO if a member nation invades the alliance. “..”.
According to Dr. Gad, Trump sounds like Russian President Vladimir Putin discussing Ukraine or Chinese President Xi Jinping discussing Taiwan.
He claims that “he’s saying it’s legitimate for us to take this piece of land.”. “This portends ill for the entire Western alliance if we take him seriously. “,”.
George Sandeman did more reporting.
