Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election.
The race for the White House, in fact, may be the closest presidential election in over a century.
According to 538’s final presidential forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College after all votes are counted (which could take a few days).
According to 538’s final House forecast, the Republican Party is in real danger of losing the chamber entirely in 2024.
**As well as scenarios in which Republicans win 50 seats and Nebraska independent candidate Dan Osborn wins his seat and chooses not to caucus with either party.
through November 9th. 4. 83 million Americans have already voted in the election scheduled for 2024. On November 2nd. On Election Day, millions more will join them.
This year, their votes will be more important than ever: 538’s White House predictions state that U. S. Senate and the U.S. S. . House, the federal government is firmly in the balance of power. At six in the morning, our finished model runs. M. Eastern on November. 5) give the Senate to Republicans a roughly 9 out of 10 chance of winning control, while the House and the presidency are up for grabs. The White House contest may actually be the most closely contested presidential election in more than a century.
the White House.
The race that everyone is watching should come first. Upon the completion of the count of votes, which may take several days, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College, according to 538’s final presidential forecast. Donald Trump, the former president, has a 49-in-100 chance of winning. * In actuality, those odds are nearly identical; they are comparable to flipping a coin and receiving heads or tails.
A 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance do not significantly differ statistically either. It would be easy to convert a 50-in-100 edge to a 51-in-100 or 49-in-100 edge with minor adjustments to our model’s settings or the available polling data. All of which means that our overall assessment of the race matters more than the exact likelihood or which candidate is “ahead.”. “..”.
Our forecast is so close because the polls are so close, more than anything else. In all seven swing states, the difference between Trump and Harris is 2 points, 1 percentage point or less, based on our final polling averages. As of right now, Trump is ahead by 2 points in Arizona, 0 points in North Carolina, 0 points in Georgia, and 0 points in Nevada. In Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris is ahead by a margin of 1.0 points. Furthermore, Harris has a slim 0–2 point lead in Pennsylvania, the state that will most likely determine the election’s outcome.
It is important to emphasize, however, that the polls will not be entirely accurate. For instance, pollsters overestimated Republicans by an average of 2 to 5 points in the 2012 presidential election and Democrats by an average of 3 to 4 points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Our election model predicts that this year’s polls will be off by an average of 3 to 8 points, though this could vary. Our model also believes that Democrats are equally likely to benefit from this error as Republicans.
To put it another way, you shouldn’t count on absolute accuracy from polls during presidential contests. You ought to anticipate that they will be just as flawed as they have always been. Additionally, a race where the leader’s advantages in each important state are extremely limited implies that there are many possible election outcomes.
And for that reason, we have been arguing that just because the polls are close, the race won’t necessarily be. Our model indicates that both Trump and Harris are only a typical polling error away from a landslide victory. Harris would win the election with 319 Electoral College votes if the polls were shifted 4 points in her favor.
In the meantime, if the polls understate Trump by the same amount, he would end up winning 312 electoral votes.
I hope you can see how improbable a 50-in-100 chance of winning the election is. We mean it when we say that there is no clear winner in the race for the White House.
the Representatives’ House.
Republicans were successful in regaining the majority in the U.S. Congress in the 2022 midterm elections. A. Representatives House. But they performed far worse than expected, particularly in seats where their candidates disputed the 2020 election results. They only managed to secure 222 seats, which is hardly enough to form a functional majority—and occasionally even that.
If 538’s final House forecast is correct, the Republican Party could actually lose the chamber in 2024. While Democrats have a 51-in-100 chance of gaining control of the House, we give them a 49-in-100 chance. Our forecast indicates that Democrats will win a one-seat majority, which is the median outcome. However, whichever party gains a majority may find it so narrow as to be unmanageable.
However, there is also a lot of uncertainty here. According to our model, there is a roughly one in two chance that one party will win a double-digit majority because House polls are prone to significant error and the other indicators our House uses can be highly noisy.
For Democrats to win a double-digit majority, they would need to win two of the 23 seats that we currently rate as “Lean” or “Likely Republican,” as well as every seat that our model rates as “Likely Democratic,” “Lean Democratic,” and “Toss-up.”. Republicans would need to win all of their “Likely” and “Lean” seats, as well as all of the “Toss-ups” and four seats that are currently held by Democrats. These performances may seem ambitious, but when they surpass expectations, parties frequently win most or all of the toss-ups.
One last thing about where surprises can be expected. We already know that we won’t choose the “right” people for each seat. That is intentional. Our objective is to accurately estimate probabilities, not to select winners. Candidates who have a 75-in-100 chance of winning must win 75 times out of 100 and lose 25 times out of 100 in order for us to be successful in that regard. 66 seats are rated as “Toss-up,” “Lean,” or “Likely” in our final prediction. We anticipate that 14 of those districts will go to the party that is not favored to win, based on how well our model would have predicted comparable races in previous elections. Furthermore, we anticipate three upsets in “Solid” districts, meaning either party has a 98-in-100 chance of winning.
The Senate.
The race to control the Senate is the next one, and it is undoubtedly not close. According to our model, Republicans have a 92-in-100 chance of controlling the upper house, including the White House (the vice president severing Senate ties) and scenarios in which they win 50 seats or more. **.
According to our forecast, Republicans are strong because they are expected to win in Ohio and Montana, which are consistently red states where moderate Democratic incumbents are attempting to withstand intense Republican competition. In Montana, the GOP has a 93-in-100 chance of defeating Sen. Jon Tester. Sen. Sherrod Brown’s odds of defeating Republican businessman Bernie Moreno are 41 to 100. Furthermore, according to our prediction, Glenn Elliott, the Democratic candidate in West Virginia, has a one in a thousand chance of retaining his position as retiring senator. A seat for Joe Manchin.
Democrats will need to gain another seat elsewhere in order to maintain their majority if they lose at least two of these seats, which our forecast indicates should occur roughly 95% of the time. Our prediction states that they have the best chances of winning in Florida or Texas, but their odds of winning are only 16 out of 100. The likelihood of rolling a standard six-sided die and receiving a 1 is what makes that not insignificant. Democrats still face a significant uphill battle, though.
Our last sentence.
People should be reminded that our predictions are not perfect at this time. Furthermore, they are unable to offer greater certainty than the information at our disposal, particularly in a year when races are this close. According to what I wrote last week, the goal of developing election forecasting models is not to offer an incredibly precise, laser-like prediction of the election that eliminates all uncertainty about what might occur. Instead, it’s meant to help people understand how the polls might be inaccurate and what would happen if they were.
Either party could win the presidential and House elections if the polls are off by a historically normal amount. For at least one state to have a Senate seat, the polls would need to be more inaccurate than they were in 2020. Though we believe it is unlikely that Democrats will hold the chamber, that is still possible given the other information we have about the seats up for grabs.
notes in the foot.
*In theory, there is a 50-point-33 chance for Harris to win, a 49-point-45 chance for Trump, and a 0 point-22 chance for an Electoral College tie. The rounded numbers seem to not add up to 100% because of this.
**In addition to scenarios where Dan Osborn, an independent candidate from Nebraska, wins his seat and decides not to caucus with either party, and Republicans win 50 seats.
