A YouGov poll conducted Wednesday found that more than 53 percent of Americans, including 31 percent of Republicans, think Swift’s endorsement will help Harris, while only 4 percent think it will hurt her.
In making political endorsements, celebrities and influencers risk alienating some fans — likely one reason Swift’s endorsement diplomatically encouraged followers to do their own research on the election.
But Swift has made political endorsements in the past, all of which have been for Democrats, so this isn’t wholly new territory for her.
That represented a massive 55-point difference between Swift fans and all registered voters, who preferred Trump by a 7-point margin in that same survey.
So, what can we glean from Swift’s endorsement?
Winfrey’s backing of Obama was her first political endorsement ever, and her access to an audience of loyal, but potentially less politically engaged, viewers who were mostly women is likely what made her endorsement so consequential.
While Swift’s first political endorsement — of Phil Bredesen, the Democratic nominee in the 2018 Tennessee Senate race — was likely negligible in the deep-red state, she does have a record of driving up voter registration by weighing in.
As seen by the whirlwind of speculation about Swift’s potential endorsement, celebrities face new pressures to make political endorsements.
Swift’s endorsement was driven in part by a uniquely modern phenomenon: She explicitly mentioned that AI-generated images of her endorsing Trump, which had been shared by Trump himself, were what prompted her to make a statement.
“Swifties for Kamala” is a fan-led group that led virtual meetings to fundraise for Harris in the weeks after Biden stepped aside.
The Impact of Oprah. The Surge of Colbert. The Quick Rise?
Following Tuesday night’s conclusion of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump’s presidential debate, Taylor Swift announced to her 280 million Instagram followers that she would be voting for Harris and Tim Walz. Vox.com referred to it as “a year of paranoid speculation” during which both supporters and detractors publicly searched for hints to ascertain whether the pop star intended to weigh in. This is when the endorsement was announced. After President Joe Biden resigned in July, speculation surged and numerous celebrities, including musicians, endorsed Harris.
In a poll released on Wednesday by YouGov, more than 53% of Americans—including 31% of Republicans—believe that Swift’s support will benefit Harris, while just 4% believe the opposite. However, in a politically charged age, it can seem as though nothing is getting done.
Celebrities and influencers who endorse political causes run the risk of upsetting certain fans; this is probably why Swift’s endorsement tactfully urged supporters to educate themselves about the election. However, Swift is not entirely new to this; she has previously endorsed Democrats in political campaigns. Furthermore, the majority of her followers probably already lean Democratic. 64 percent of Democrats, compared to only 17 percent of Republicans and 29 percent of independents, expressed favorability toward Swift in a Change Research survey conducted in February 2013. Just 37% of “moveable” voters—those who weren’t sure about Biden or had doubts about him—were in this category.
Remarkably, the survey discovered that registered voters who thought favorably of Swift chose Biden by 48 points, or 69 percent to 21 percent, in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Swift supporters and all registered voters, who favored Trump by a 7-point margin in the same survey, were separated by a staggering 55 points.
Nevertheless, Swift’s influence may be able to draw in those who aren’t as politically aware or reawaken those who have been avoiding politics and political news in general. What therefore can we learn from Swift’s support, and will it have any real impact on the 2024 election?
Supporters have the power to increase voter turnout.
There is a wealth of evidence indicating that endorsements do count in elections. By relying on the endorser’s perceived credibility and values instead of doing in-depth research on policies or candidates themselves, endorsements psychologically act as information shortcuts that facilitate easier decision-making for voters. Furthermore, while political figures are usually the most sought-after sources of endorsements, the increasing mistrust of political institutions implies that support from other public figures, such as influencers or celebrities, may be more important than in the past.
There is some precedent for this: according to one study, TV personality Oprah Winfrey’s support of then-candidate Barack Obama may have given him an extra million votes in the Democratic presidential primary of 2008—a political equivalent of the “Oprah Effect.”. It’s likely that Winfrey’s endorsement of Obama was significant because it was her first political endorsement ever and she had access to a predominantly female audience of devoted but possibly less politically engaged viewers.
As for Swift, she has one of the biggest global audiences, and her political endorsement could have a significant impact by attracting people who might not otherwise be interested in politics—a group known as the purposefully uninvolved, according to Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan of the University of Michigan. Her support could inspire younger Americans, a demographic with historically low voter turnout, to register and cast ballots.
Since Swift’s audience is already Democratic, this does not imply that her endorsement will be meaningless; on the contrary, it may be the reason it is important. Trump’s primary tactic since his 2016 campaign has been registering new and low-propensity voters, but celebrities like Swift could help him gain traction with a group of unlikely voters who are much more likely to support the Democrats.
By encouraging supporters to register to vote and outlining her reasons for backing the Harris-Walz ticket, Swift’s endorsement appeared to be designed with this in mind. She brought up reproductive rights, which is a topic that matters a lot to women and younger Americans in particular, as well as to Swift fans in general, who, according to a Change Research poll conducted in February, ranked it among the top three issues influencing their vote (39%). Furthermore, candidates who emphasize issues that young voters care about may be better able to encourage turnout in an election where young voters’ votes may matter more than ever. Democrats have a significant advantage in this area.
Experts claim that endorsements like Swift’s can have a significant impact by reaching new or less politically involved voters and fostering a sense of social responsibility in them, even though it can be challenging to quantify their direct effects. “Musicians and celebrities can be effective public opinion leaders among the people who are not deeply political and who would generally turn off the news and put on some music,” according to Jessica Feezell, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Mexico who specializes in the intersection of politics and music. “If Taylor Swift didn’t. is sending a message to potential voters and politically ambivalent individuals that it’s good to be involved in politics, to be registered to vote, and perhaps even to support Harris over Trump. “.”.
Swift has a history of increasing voter registration by contributing, even though her first political endorsement—of Phil Bredesen, the Democratic candidate in the 2018 Tennessee Senate race—was probably insignificant in the heavily Republican state. After she urged her followers to register to vote, there was a spike in registrants at Vote . org, a nonpartisan voter registration website, in 2023. This week, a similar incident occurred: during the 24-hour period that Swift’s Instagram story was active, more than 400,000 individuals clicked on the URL she shared to visit vote.gov.
Celebrity endorsements: the start of a new era?
The word “politics” is avoided by millions of Americans. For instance, 65% of American adults say they feel “exhausted” when they think about politics, per a 2023 Pew survey. Nevertheless, some of these indifferent Americans might be persuaded to pay attention or even take action by the support of influencers and celebrities. For starters, audiences are searching for alternative information sources they believe to be more reliable, relatable, and genuine due to their growing mistrust of mainstream political news sources. Younger Americans in particular, who are primarily watching the election unfold online rather than necessarily looking for political news, are a prime example of this.
The flurry of rumors surrounding Swift’s possible endorsement shows that celebrities are under increasing pressure to endorsing political causes. Swift’s support for Trump was partly sparked by a very contemporary phenomenon: she made it clear that she was inspired to make a statement by AI-generated photos of her endorsing Trump that Trump had shared. Additionally, some fans even expect their idols to publicly take a stand on political issues and align their values with those of the majority of their audience, in an era where social media has intensified parasocial relationships—one-sided emotional connections that people form with media figures.
But some fans aren’t waiting for approval before acting. A fan-run organization called “Swifties for Kamala” organized online gatherings to raise money for Harris in the weeks following Biden’s resignation. The group provided a space for fans to come together for a cause they cared about and demonstrated how quickly grassroots organizing can take off on social media, even though they were quick to clarify that they were not associated with the artist. Since then, the group has raised over $150,000 for the Harris campaign.
