Israel has invaded Lebanon

After days of bombing operations both inside and outside the capital, Beirut, Israel has launched what it claims will be a “limited” military invasion of Lebanon.

The Israeli military announced that it had ordered residents of about two dozen nearby villages who are Lebanese citizens to relocate north and that it had moved one army division, which normally consists of about 10,000 soldiers, to the Iranian border.

Since its founding decades ago, Hezbollah, an Islamist militant group with Iranian support and a political party in Lebanon, has fought Israel. This invasion represents a risky new phase in their long-running conflict. Israel has allegedly launched a series of attacks on thousands of mobile devices used by Hezbollah members throughout Lebanon. On Friday, Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s reclusive leader, in a bombing in a Beirut suburb. Israel has recently increased its attacks on Hezbollah.

Israel’s most recent operations have not been cheap: Lebanese government officials report that in recent weeks, over 1,000 people have died, 6,000 have been wounded, and up to a million have been displaced. At least eight persons have been injured in the past week as a result of Hezbollah’s recent attacks on Israel, which have mostly involved missile strikes.

While the two sides have clashed periodically over the years, Hezbollah and Israel have been fighting more fiercely since Hamas’s attacks on Israel on October 7 of last year. Until Israel consents to a ceasefire in Gaza, where at least 40,000 Palestinians have been killed, Hezbollah has vowed to keep firing missiles into Israeli territory. Nor has Israel demonstrated any indication that it is considering ceasing operations. The nation’s leaders have declared their desire to destroy Hamas entirely, and Israel’s defense minister stated on Monday that the “next stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon.”. “.

Important allies also don’t seem to be able to put an end to the fighting. It has been reported that the US abandoned a peace plan with Hezbollah and Israel. Although the US has advised Israel to attempt defusing the situation, there are reports that the US has also privately given Israel support for its Hezbollah strategy.

On Tuesday, Iranian officials launched a ballistic missile strike in retaliation for Israel’s recent attacks. Although Iran’s mission to the UN stated that it “has duly carried out” in response to X, it also threatened that “should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue.” This implied that Iran did not have any more attacks planned. “.

What is currently known about what has occurred and what is probably going to happen next is as follows.

How did we end up here?

The hostility between Hezbollah and Israel dates back many years. In fact, Hezbollah was founded in southern Lebanon in 1982 in reaction to Israel’s horrific invasion, which claimed the lives of tens of thousands of Lebanese, and its subsequent occupation of the region for many years. Hezbollah fought Israeli troops with guerilla warfare for many years; after years of bloody combat and a UN resolution mandating that Israel withdraw, Israel did so in 2000.

Up until 2006, the two parties’ disagreement continued to simmer. Following a counterattack by Israel that resulted in the deaths of over 1,000 Lebanese and 160 Israelis, Hezbollah killed eight Israeli soldiers and captured two more. When Hamas launched its attack on October 7, the fighting resumed after a ceasefire brokered by the UN but lasted for years.

Along with Hamas, Hezbollah launched massive artillery barrages into northern Israel on October 8, 2023, which resulted in the displacement of about 60,000 people.

Initially, Israel’s northern border with Lebanon saw only tit-for-tat fighting as it concentrated on driving out Hamas from Gaza. However, Israel began to pick up more and more weapons against Hezbollah in September. First, it bombarded the organization’s stronghold in southern Lebanon and the outskirts of Beirut, then it used explosive devices to attack the organization’s leadership and members.

Speculators have cautioned that Israel’s conflict with Gaza may expand to include Hezbollah and possibly the entire region ever since the attack on October 7.

It’s unclear whether that’s what’s occurring right now or what an all-out conflict between Israel and Hezbollah might entail. It’s unclear how Hezbollah will fare with its communication networks disrupted by the recent pager and walkie-talkie attacks, which Israel has not claimed but is widely assumed to be behind, despite the group’s history of withstanding Israeli firepower. Furthermore, that attack and the bombings that followed claimed the lives of a considerable number of senior and mid-level Hezbollah leaders.

What action might Hezbollah take next?

The most well-armed and potent militia in the Middle East is thought to be Hezbollah. It has a sizable arsenal of weapons, which may include up to 120,000 missiles, and has been using them inside Israel’s borders more and more successfully since the start of the Gaza War. According to Israel, thousands of the group’s rockets and shells have been destroyed, and some of Hezbollah’s precision munitions may have also been destroyed, according to Natan Sachs, director of the Brookings Institution’s Middle East policy program.

Even so, Hezbollah has proven capable of employing cutting edge military strategies—like sending drones to launch missiles at vital Israeli targets—as well as efficient intelligence gathering techniques, like cyberespionage. Furthermore, Nasrallah’s murder and recent Israeli strikes on Lebanese cellphones haven’t totally destroyed that capability.

Based on the departure of its leadership, Phillip Smyth, an independent analyst covering terrorism and the Middle East, said there was a certain joy that Hezbollah was now totally destroyed and crippled. It doesn’t operate that way. “.

However, the effectiveness of recent Israeli strikes has reportedly unsettled Iranian leadership and raised doubts about Hezbollah’s level of capability. Thus, even though Hezbollah had earlier promised not to back down until a ceasefire in Gaza was achieved, it might not have many options moving forward.

“Hezbollah turns out to be less capable, militarily, than I expected,” Thanassis Cambanis, a senior fellow and director of the think tank Century International, said.

Hezbollah, according to Cambanis and other experts, possesses the technological means to hit both military and civilian targets in Israel, including Tel Aviv, a major population center, and Haifa. However, it appears that it would have done so by now if it had been willing and capable.

“It appears that Hezbollah was unwilling to employ its most potent military alternatives, or that it was unable to do so due to Israel’s ability to penetrate or neutralize Hezbollah’s capabilities,” Cambanis stated.

In a speech on Monday, the group’s second-in-command, Naim Qassem, attempted to allay concerns regarding Hezbollah’s capabilities, but he also appeared to imply that Hezbollah is presently on the defensive.

The media’s claim that Israel has hit most of the country’s medium- and long-range capabilities is unfounded and unachievable, Qassem said. “Israel was not able to reach our military capabilities,” Qassem added. “We are prepared to deal with any situation that may arise if the Israelis choose to invade by land and the resistance forces are prepared for a ground battle. “.

He continued by saying that news regarding Nasrallah’s heir—who Smyth predicted would most likely be his cousin and hand-picked heir Hashem Safieddine—will be released in the next few days. Safieddine presently sits on the council that directs Hezbollah’s military operations and is in charge of the organization’s political affairs.

What part does Iran play in this?

With Tuesday’s missile barrage, Iran has escalated its actions to the highest level since April, when it launched about 300 missiles and rockets toward Israel, almost all of which were intercepted by Israeli air defenses, US forces in the region, and partner forces.

Mostly, Iran uses resources and funding to support a network of militia groups in order to project its power in the region and pursue its foreign policy objectives, which include provoking Israel. They include Hezbollah, of course, Hamas, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Shia militias in Syria and Iraq.

Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group’s director of the Iran project, told Vox in October of last year that Iran and Hezbollah are “really like two NATO allies.”.

Iran has been hesitant to actively participate in a war against Israel, despite NATO allies’ pledge to defend one another from attacks. A drone attack on Israeli territory in April came after an Iranian military leader was killed in an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus, Syria; the attack was clearly premeditated and did little harm. Furthermore, there was no evident reprisal after Ismail Haniyeh, the former leader of Hamas, was killed in July while he was in Tehran.

However, Smyth clarified, “The appetite for them was quite high, to be perfectly frank.” This does not imply that Iran lacks desire for conflict. “They just thought that they could micromanage this so that it wouldn’t get to this point. Furthermore, the Israelis exposed their deception. “.

Iran appears to have offered a force demonstration now, but the nation’s willingness to go only so far.

Sachs stated that “escalation could come, but [the Iranians] need to thread a needle.”. Without starting a protracted conflict with both Israel and the US, that entails attempting to demonstrate support for Hezbollah and Iran’s offensive capabilities.

Is the Israeli campaign in Lebanon a lead-up to a more extensive ground invasion?

Hezbollah will be driven out along Lebanon’s southern border with Israel as part of Israel’s “limited” ground invasion strategy, according to the Washington Post, which aims to eliminate the threat to Israeli communities in the area. The Israeli army claimed to have carried out “limited, localized and targeted raids” along the border thus far.

However, some worry that Israel’s limited mission might expand into something more, as it has in Gaza, where the country’s declared operational goal of defeating Hamas has given way to the extensive loss of civilian life. Severe Lebanese resistance is likely to result from the growing conflict with Hezbollah.

“Lebanese will mobilize as a national issue to resist an invasion of Lebanon,” Cambanis stated. “This includes the many Lebanese who oppose another Israeli invasion and occupation in addition to not supporting Israel.”. By following the logic of total war, Israel may be able to short-term achieve some of its goals, but the Middle East as a whole will become less safe as a result. “.

The Lebanese government, or what passes for it, having been in power since 2022 as an unelected caretaker government, has made it abundantly evident that it has no interest in starting another conflict with Israel. On Monday, acting prime minister Najib Mikati declared that his administration is ready to carry out UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which put an end to the 2006 conflict. In order to combat Hezbollah and compel Israel to leave southern Lebanon, that resolution would send the Lebanese army to the country’s south. It’s uncertain if Mikati will cause the resolution to be initiated now that Israel has invaded Lebanon.

Lebanese civilian casualties from the conflict have already been severe, and things could only get worse from here. In anticipation, on Tuesday, Lebanon and the UN submitted a $426 million humanitarian aid request to assist those impacted over the next three months.

Decades of conflict, malfeasance in the administration, and a flood of Syrian refugees have put additional strain on Lebanon’s already precarious security situation. Approximately one million Lebanese have now fled their country’s south due to Israel’s invasion and bombing campaigns, according to Mikati, and the government of Lebanon claims that at least 1,000 people have died in the last two weeks.

What comes next for the conflict between Israel, Hamas, and Gaza?

The US’s unwillingness to hold Israel accountable by limiting arms transfers, Hezbollah’s declared stance that it will not cease attacking Israel until a ceasefire with Gaza is achieved, and the ongoing failure of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza all seem to be contributing factors to the growing conflict.

The US and France did try to broker a 21-day cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah last week, but Joel Beinin, a Middle East history professor at Stanford University, stated that “Israel (Netanyahu) has flat out rejected the US-French 21 day ceasefire proposal in Lebanon.”. Given that Hezbollah portrays its actions as an act of solidarity with Gaza, it is highly unlikely that it will consent to a ceasefire while Gaza remains under attack.

After the ceasefire attempt failed, the US appears to be making very little effort to really restrain Israel.

Michael Hanna, the director of the International Crisis Group’s US program, stated that “the United States is just not driving events.”.

“We back Israel’s right to self-defense against Hezbollah and all terrorist organizations supported by Iran.”. We will continue to talk about mission creep with the Israelis because, of course, we are aware of the potential risks. The National Security Council spokesperson emailed Vox, saying, “In the end, a diplomatic solution is the only way to achieve lasting stability and security across the Israel-Lebanon border.”.

But the US could take further action to prevent an escalation; Sen. Though it is unlikely to pass in Congress, Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has introduced a resolution to stop arms sales to Israel on the grounds that the transfers violate international law.

While the crisis is currently in Lebanon, Israeli military operations are still going on in Gaza, where fighting has killed up to 186,000 people in the last year, according to the medical journal The Lancet. (A lot of media sources estimate that number at 40,000, but it’s hard to get an exact count when so much of Gaza is destroyed and fighting is still going on. There are numerous reports of communicable diseases and malnutrition, and the medical infrastructure has been devastated.

Hanna declared, “The humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire; people are dying there every day.”. “Life is thrown off balance and interrupted; there are no schools and no functioning society.”. There isn’t anything. “.

After its victories, Israel seems more confident, and Hezbollah seems hesitant to attack Israel on a large scale. In addition to increasing troop levels in the area, the US has continued to support Israel. Though it hasn’t yet taken a particularly active part in the conflict, Iran has made some threats. It’s impossible to predict where the war will go from here because of all of that. Nonetheless, Cambanis foresees the worst.

The march to war against Iran is “dangerous and delusional,” he declared. “While it’s evident that the Biden administration supports Israel’s spiraling escalation, I would have preferred to rely on the US government to hold Israel accountable.”. “.