Record numbers of Texans turned out Monday for the first day of early voting — numbers that were particularly concentrated in several of the state’s blue-leaning urban and suburban counties.
Turnout was also up well over 2016 levels in more purple, suburban counties like the Houston suburbs of Fort Bend and the Dallas suburb of Collin County.
Over that same period, the share of registered voters in Texas has increased by 22 percent — 7 points more than the overall rise in population.
Analysis by KXAN has found that while suburban counties still lean red, 26 percent fewer suburban voters backed Trump in 2020 versus 2016 — even as the suburban population rose by 600,000.
While the overall trend may favor Democrats, surveys of likely voters show both Trump and Cruz solidly in the lead in Texas.
On Monday, the first day of early voting, record numbers of Texans cast ballots, with a concentration of those voters concentrated in a number of the state’s blue-leaning urban and suburban counties.
Due to the tight race between incumbent Texas Sen. The Republican Ted Cruz and his opponent, Democratic Rep. The state’s first polling station, Colin Allred, opened early on Monday.
In Harris County, the home of Houston, about 125,000 people cast ballots, which is half as many as did so in the 2016 general election, the most recent year for which Texas secretary of state statistics are available.
With a record-breaking 46,600 voters on the first day, Travis County—home of Austin—surpassed first-day voting in the previous three elections, according to the county clerk.
In Bexar, the home of San Antonio, nearly 47,000 people cast ballots, with some voters standing in line for over two hours.
Additionally, more purple suburban counties, such as the Dallas suburb of Collin County and the Houston suburb of Fort Bend, saw a significant increase in turnout compared to 2016.
One reason for these increasing numbers is that there are a lot more Texans than there used to be, which is due to both migration from other states and the state’s high birthrate. From 2016 to 2024, Texas’s population increased by 15%.
Furthermore, according to the Houston Chronicle, it might also be partly due to the state’s steadily rising voter registration rate, which has outpaced the state’s overall population growth.
Texas’s registered voter share has grown by 22% during that time, which is 7 percentage points higher than the state’s overall population growth.
In addition, the percentage of registered voters who actually cast a ballot has steadily increased, rising from 58% in 2012 to 66% in 2020.
On the surface, Democrats have benefited from those trends. As Texas’s national and state elections have become increasingly competitive, as evidenced by the narrowing margins of Republican victories in recent years, there has been a consistent increase in both the percentage of registered voters and their turnout.
With a mere 5 to 5 point margin in 2020, former President Trump won the state, which was more than enough to win but less than a third of the margin by which Sen. About two-thirds of the buffer between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016 was taken by Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who won the state in 2012.
Although it is also evident in the state’s still conservative but increasingly competitive suburbs, the purpling trend has been most noticeable in the large urban counties.
Although suburban counties continue to lean red, KXAN’s analysis shows that, despite a 600,000 increase in the suburban population, 26% fewer suburban voters supported Trump in 2020 than in 2016.
In the same time frame, the Democratic vote share in the cities increased by two-thirds, from 562,000 in 2016 to 925,000 in 2020. This increase more than doubled the percentage of votes Democrats lost in the state’s increasingly rural counties, where the population is declining.
To date, however, the state has not been competitive enough thanks to those trend lines.
Joshua Blank of the Texas Politics Project (TPP) at the University of Texas told The Hill that while high turnout in urban counties is “a necessary condition for [Democrats] to be competitive, but it’s not sufficient,” increases in Democratic turnout have generally coincided with increases in turnout overall.
Both Trump and Cruz are firmly ahead in Texas, according to polls of likely voters, even though the general trend may favor Democrats. According to a TPP survey of 1091 likely voters released last week, Cruz was ahead of Allred by 7 points, while Trump was ahead of Harris by 5 points.
There is a catch, though, Blank told The Hill: those figures are based on likely voters, who are typically older and whiter than the state as a whole.
In other words, they don’t reveal much about how the less likely voters, who are crucial to Democrats’ plans and any hope of a statewide Democratic victory, will behave.
Despite all the polling, Blank stated, “we don’t know what the unlikely voters are going to do.”.
Recent polls have shown that Cruz and Allred are getting closer, which has given Democrats hope that this election could be a turning point for the party in Texas.
Vice President Harris revealed on Tuesday that she and Allred would hold a rally in Harris County on Friday, reflecting the close contest. This was an unexpected halt in a campaign tour that was primarily concentrated on more conventional swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania, according to The Hill.
According to Blank, the election ultimately depends on Democrats’ capacity to overcome a conundrum: mobilizing the most difficult-to-turn-out voters.
“That indicates that the parties have quite different strategic needs,” Blank continued. All Republicans have to do is make sure that every voter turns up. For Democrats to stay competitive, they must recruit new voters who are unlikely to cast ballots. “.”.
