The 59-year-old politician is expected to outline her vision and policy agenda to the American people, while many in Europe will also be curious to understand what a Harris presidency could mean for the trans-Atlantic relationship.
If Harris were to win, political analysts told CNBC they expect a broadly similar approach to Biden’s policy platform — albeit with some subtle differences on major international issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war.
Sudha David-Wilp Senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States For analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit, the expectation is that a Harris presidency would offer a sense of continuity on matters of foreign affairs.
“On Ukraine, we can perhaps expect a Harris-Walz presidency to be bolder than Biden’s,” Nicoli told CNBC via email.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images Nicoli, who also serves as a visiting fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, said a Harris presidency was unlikely to drastically alter the trans-Atlantic approach on international issues such as Israel and China.
A Harris presidency is unlikely to change that,” he added.
This is where the party is and probably where Harris will be also,” she added.
“Undoubtedly, there would be a certain degree of continuity from the Biden administration to a Kamala Harris presidency in terms of ideals, actions, and advisors,” David-Wilp said.
Daniel Leal via Afp via Getty Images.
In what is anticipated to be the largest political speech of her career, Vice President Kamala Harris will take the stage at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday.
Many in Europe will also be interested in learning what a Harris presidency could entail for the transatlantic relationship, as the 59-year-old politician is expected to present her vision and policy agenda to the American people.
Following President Joe Biden’s announcement of his campaign’s termination last month, Harris rose to the top of the Democratic ticket and will face Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump in November.
Political analysts told CNBC that, should Harris win, they anticipate a nearly identical policy platform to that of Biden, with a few minor variations on significant global issues like the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Europe is realistic enough to know that a Democratic victory in the White House would not mean that America would abandon its industrial policies and meet all of Europe’s security requirements.
David-Wilp Sudha.
Senior fellow at the US German Marshall Fund.
The expectation among Economist Intelligence Unit analysts is that a Harris presidency would provide a sense of continuity in foreign policy matters.
EIU analysts Emily Mansfield and Andrew Viteritti sent an email to CNBC explaining, “That means a gradual decline in military aid for Ukraine, rather than the sharp reduction to force peace talks that we would expect under Donald Trump; a still hawkish stance on China but without Trump’s threat of immediate tariff hikes; and continued efforts to balance support for Israel with de-escalation of the war in Gaza.”.
They went on, “Harris has undoubtedly not criticized Biden on any of these issues, but she is likely to change the messaging around them—her emphasis on the Gaza humanitarian crisis being one example of this.”.
Israel, China, and the Ukraine.
Political science assistant professor Francesco Nicoli of the Politecnico Institute of Turin, Italy, stated that the current trajectory of U.S. s. In particular, in areas like trade, artificial intelligence, Big Tech, and climate policy, it was expected that European Union convergence would continue under a Harris presidency.
“It’s possible that a Harris-Walz administration will be more assertive on Ukraine than Biden’s,” Nicoli emailed CNBC.
It’s likely that the new Democratic ticket will take a slightly more liberal stance when it comes to giving Ukraine the tools to push and test these red lines, he said, without fundamentally altering the’red lines’ strategy that has so far restricted US aid to Ukraine. Tim “Especially Waldz has been an outspoken advocate for Ukraine. ****.
Bloomberg Pictures | Bloomberg | Getty Images.
The trans-Atlantic approach to foreign affairs, including China and Israel, is unlikely to change significantly under a Harris presidency, according to Nicoli, who is also a visiting fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.
Noting that the bloc seemed “happy to leave the negotiating leadership” to the U.S., he said the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, was likely to hail any compromise deal between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas as a success “as long as the war finishes.”. S.
When CNBC contacted a European Commission spokesperson on Thursday, the spokesperson was not immediately available to comment.
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According to Nicoli, “the EU is currently too divided on China to be a credible partner for the US in any situation short of an open conflict,” even though “I have little doubt that, should China launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan the EU would react swiftly and coherently.”.
“The EU is likely to persist with its fragmented industrial policy, which could be perceived as anti-China during discussions with any incoming US president; however, in actuality, it is likely to be opposing the US nearly as much as China.”. It is improbable that a Harris presidency will alter that “continues.”.
The director of the U.S. s. and Americas program at Chatham House, stated that although Harris is in “the difficult position of staking out her foreign policy while serving as Vice President,” she is likely to follow Biden’s foreign policy agenda.
Through email, Vinjamuri informed CNBC, “We know she feels passionately about protesting Palestinian lives and this is perhaps the area where we will see more difference.”.
But pay attention to what former President Barack Obama said. “America can be a force for good, but it cannot be the world’s policeman.”. Harris will most likely be present at this location as well as the party,” she continued.
Industry policies and security requirements.
A Harris victory in November, according to Sudha David-Wilp, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, “would offer breathing space for Europe to strengthen its defense capabilities” and “adjust to new realities” in the U.S. S. -EU bond.
According to David-Wilp, “there would definitely be some continuity in terms of ideals, actions, and advisors from the Biden administration to a Kamala Harris presidency.”.
But Europe is not fooled into believing that if the Democrats win the White House, all of Europe’s security needs would be met and its industrial policies would be reversed. “.”.
[Alessandro Della Valle | Afp | Getty Images].
David-Wilp indicated that the EU ought to cooperate with the U.S. rather than “handwringing” over Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act. s. should guard against the economic weaponization of supply chains and concentrate on combining domestic research and funding to achieve breakthroughs in fields like artificial intelligence and renewable energy.
She continued, “Harris would not break up the transatlantic relationship, but she would naturally prioritize dealing with China’s foreign policy issues as well as the pressing crises in the Middle East and at the US southern border—issues that are more pertinent to American domestic politics.”.
