A potential tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico could be a low-end Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday and headed toward a landfall on the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts.
A tropical storm watch was issued Sunday for Southern Texas, from Port Mansfield south to the Rio Grande River, which means tropical storm winds are possible along the coast by Tuesday evening.
The hurricane center expects the system to become a tropical storm on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible within the watch area on the northeastern coast of Mexico and southern tip of Texas.
Hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm watches are expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts on Monday.
The system, labeled Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, is one of three the hurricane center is watching.
Another is in the central tropical Atlantic and is given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm within 48 hours.
So far, landfall could be on Wednesday evening along the southwestern Louisiana coast, Jones said.
Once the system forms a well-defined center, the hurricane center said steady strengthening is possible.
“We’re going to be looking at 8 to 12 inches of rainfall south of Interstate 10 in southwestern Louisiana,” Jones said.
The track of the tropical storm shifted a little eastward Sunday and could shift even further east, he said.
In the Gulf of Mexico, a possible tropical storm has the potential to strengthen into a low-end Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday and make landfall on the coasts of southwest Louisiana or Upper Texas.
The National Hurricane Center estimated that there was a 90% chance of a tropical storm forming within 48 hours following several weeks of calm. me. on Sunday for the CT update.
With the issuance of a tropical storm watch on Sunday, tropical storm winds are predicted along the coast by Tuesday evening for Southern Texas, extending from Port Mansfield south to the Rio Grande River. Barra del Tordo and the southern portion of the Mexican coast are under a tropical storm watch.
On Sunday night, the system’s center was located roughly 550 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, and 320 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande. The extended system was moving very slowly at 5 mph in a north-northwesterly direction, with sustained winds estimated to be 50 mph.
The hurricane center predicts that on Monday, the system will intensify into a tropical storm, with tropical storm conditions possibly occurring within the watch area along the southernmost tip of Texas and the northeastern coast of Mexico.
This storm would become the sixth named storm of the 2024 season and be named Francine unless one of the systems being watched out in the tropical Atlantic forms first. On Monday, watches for hurricanes, storm surges, and tropical storms are predicted for the coasts of upper Texas and Louisiana.
One of three systems under observation by the hurricane center is designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. Another is located in the central tropical Atlantic and has a sixty percent chance in 48 hours of developing into a tropical storm. Over the next week, there is a fifty percent chance that a storm located further east will develop.
The center predicts that on Wednesday, the storm will reach 80 mph winds and be a low-end Category 1 hurricane. The center said that through Thursday, the storm is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rain to the coast, and in some areas of northeastern Mexico and along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana, amounts as high as 12 inches. This could pose a risk for flash floods.
By late Tuesday, as the Gulf of Mexico system approaches a cold front along the Gulf coast, it is expected to start moving more quickly to the northeast. Donald Jones, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles, Louisiana, stated during a Sunday night briefing that it would be just offshore along the Texas coast moving toward a possible landfall along the upper Texas or Louisiana coast on Wednesday.
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Jones said there was a possibility that the storm might even strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane and advised people in southwest Louisiana to monitor the weather. Thus far, Jones stated that landfall might occur on Wednesday night along the southwest coast of Louisiana.
According to Jones, the Gulf’s water temperatures are warmer than usual, which may encourage the development of hurricanes. The hurricane center stated that steady strengthening is possible once the system forms a clearly defined center. The hurricane center said that although the storm would be over the warm Gulf in an area of rich moisture, it might experience increased wind shear and slightly drier air, which could prevent significant strengthening.
“We anticipate 8 to 12 inches of precipitation in the southwest region of Louisiana, south of Interstate 10,” stated Jones.
Flooding is currently the biggest threat, according to Jones. He said that on Sunday, the tropical storm’s track moved slightly eastward and might move even farther east.
