A sluggish Idea About The Drones Over New Jersey

There are a plethora of rumors and stories about unidentified drones flying over New Jersey and New York. The stories so far can be divided into three groups: private drones, drones used by adversarial foreign actors, and drones used by US authorities on an unrecognized, covert mission. President-elect Trump has weighed in, and the media has taken up the cause and the story has gained widespread attention. Confused officials have failed to provide a cohesive explanation. Another theory will be added to the increasing amount of noise in this column, but it will be well-founded, covering all available information and, ideally, making it more likely.

First, let’s quickly rule out the private drone scenario. To avoid being discovered, any private organization that is causing this kind of panic would quickly acknowledge it and issue an apology. By using satellite technology, the authorities would be able to track them, determine their origin, and disclose the truth. The foreign actor hypothesis follows; once more, as Donald Trump claims, the military or intelligence community would be aware of this. They may choose to keep quiet about it out of concern that it will lead to conflict with a foreign power. The Havana Syndrome findings by Congress, which disregarded the intelligence community’s earlier report that the Syndrome doesn’t exist and that no foreign power is to blame, are the most recent example of the US’s regrettable propensity for such willful passivity. A foreign state is most likely responsible for the Havana Syndrome, according to the recent ad hoc Congressional Committee’s official findings.

Returning to the drones, are the authorities aware that a foreign power is behind the drone outbreak but refuse to acknowledge it? In situations like this, timing is crucial. As demonstrated by the increase in aid to Ukraine and the authorization to strike inside Russia, the Biden White House is not afraid to complicate the incoming administration’s foreign policy at the last minute. We would be aware of the identity of the person who released the drones if it were a hostile power. This brings us to the third and final possibility: the drone phenomenon was a covert government operation that unintentionally reached the public eye. Given that this column focuses on geostrategic matters, the potential explanation is within its purview.

Why the United States and Germany, until recently, refused to permit Ukraine to use allied weapons to strike inside Russia has never been fully understood (Germany still refuses). Other than an enduring fear of Russian reprisal, a variety of theories have floated but nothing cohesive has been discovered. But in recent months, particularly following Trump’s election win, Washington authorized Ukraine to use American weapons across its border. The truth is, any kind of highly visible and attributable strike against the US was never a risk because Moscow would have suffered devastating retaliation. Did the Russian threat to retaliate against the US diminish? Did the US suddenly feel safer? And why did it take so long to grant permission? However, a nameless disaster in a big American city would do. If allied weapons were to bomb Russian territory, there would be a sort of covert Samson Option, or hidden nuclear device in Germany or America. It is the threat, the ambiguity, that makes such a threat so effective, not its application. as well as the hesitation or skepticism it causes.

Furthermore, the danger shouldn’t be overt or widely known. Any large-scale explosion causes a stir, forces the authorities to locate a return address, and identifies the obvious culprit. No foreign power would dare to provoke someone in such a way that it could be recognized and lead to reprisals. Take a look at 9/11. The real threat would, therefore, be frightening rather than extremely destructive, one must conclude. In addition to being discreetly built, the device would also need to be discreetly delivered or stored. No foreign state actor would accept accountability either. Thus, a compact radiation apparatus is appropriate. And that’s exactly what New Jersey officials have been saying about the drone activity: we’re searching for a small medical isotope that went missing, one that was on a container ship. A federal agency, however, recently denied that the US was using drones to look for nuclear radiation. All of which are common practices for controlling panic.

Lastly, the foreign actors would not directly threaten. Like the Havana Syndrome, they would continue to be deniable. Nobody knows who was responsible if it was a radiation device, but given its technical sophistication, only rival superpowers are likely to be suspects. Thus, we return to the Russian dark operations and the Biden White House’s inexplicable reluctance to assist Ukraine.