“We’ve won!” he announced to cheers from the crowd, before giving a victory speech thanking his family and supporters.
The runoff came after neither candidate achieved more than 50% of votes in a crowded first-round vote two weeks ago.
“Tusk knows the stakes and that if Nawrocki wins, he’s got a lame-duck administration for the next couple of years.
“This election could be decided by single votes,” Nawrocki told a rally of supporters last week.
“Encourage everyone, so that as many Poles as possible vote in the presidential election,” he told a rally on Friday.
Sunday night’s pivotal Polish presidential election was too close to call. Rafał Trzaskowski, a liberal candidate, had a slight lead according to an early exit poll, while Karol Nawrocki, a right-wing challenger, had a narrow lead according to a later poll that combined exit polls and the first official results.
Both polls’ differences between the two candidates fell within the error margin.
As polls closed on Sunday, Ipsos Poland released its first exit poll at 9 p.m. local time (8 p.m. BST), placing Trzaskowski, who is supported by the current administration under Donald Tusk, at 50 percent and Nawrocki at 49 percent. The margin of error for the poll was two percent.
Trzaskowski went straight to the Warsaw stage to declare victory. He declared, “We’ve won!” to applause from the audience before thanking his family and supporters in a victory speech. This is a very unique time in Polish history. He declared, “I am certain that it will enable us to proceed and concentrate on the future.”.
During a speech at his own campaign headquarters, Nawrocki claimed he was still certain he would win after all the votes were counted.
Indeed, there was a sharp change in the predictions in a second “late poll” that was made public two hours after the polls closed, with Nawrocki now leading with 50 points and Trzaskowski with 49 points and 3 percent. Analysts warned that as more votes are counted, these numbers might alter once more. As the night continues, more trustworthy results should be forthcoming.
The two candidates have presented radically different perspectives of Poland during a fiercely contested and frequently irascible campaign, and the outcome of the election will have a significant impact on the political future of the nation because the president has the power to veto laws.
The progressive, pro-European mayor of Warsaw, Trzaskowski, is in favor of allowing LGBT couples to form civil partnerships and liberalizing abortion regulations. Historian and former amateur boxer Nawrocki has strongly opposed these measures and, should he be elected, would likely veto any attempts to put them into effect.
Following a crowded first-round vote two weeks ago in which neither candidate received more than fifty percent of the vote, the runoff was held. The victor will succeed Andrzej Duda, the departing president, who will leave office in August after serving two terms. Duda supports the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, which controlled Poland until late 2023, when Tusk’s coalition won parliamentary elections.
In addition to having a president who holds a different ideology, Tusk’s tenure as prime minister has been characterized by challenges in uniting his wide coalition. Even though the presidency is primarily a ceremonial position, it does have some control over defense and foreign policy and the crucial authority to veto proposed laws. Only a 60 percent majority in parliament, which Tusk’s administration lacks, can overturn this.
A Nawrocki victory would prolong the impasse and make it difficult for the government to enact any significant reforms prior to the 2027 parliamentary election, whereas Trzaskowski would pave the way for Tusk to govern with intent.
Tusk is aware of the risks and that if Nawrocki prevails, his administration will be ineffective for the ensuing years. Furthermore, Nawrocki will take over with a new mandate from what essentially amounted to a referendum on the government, making it worse than under Duda,” said Prof. Aleks Szczerbiak, a politics professor at the University of Sussex who specializes in east and central Europe.
Trzaskowski, the Oxford-educated mayor of Warsaw since 2018, has attempted to portray himself as a reliable partner to assist the government in carrying out progressive reforms. Trzaskowski has previously served in the European parliament and held ministerial positions.
Since 2021, Nawrocki, a historian and former museum director, has led the Institute of National Remembrance, a state research organization frequently charged with promoting a politicized view of history. Throughout the campaign, the media reported on several scandals involving his alleged prior behavior.
Both candidates tried to rally their supporters and win over voters who had lost to them in the first round of the election in the closing days of the campaign. “Single votes could decide this election,” Nawrocki said last week at a rally of supporters.
Trzaskowski added that each vote would be important. He said at a rally on Friday, “Encourage everyone, so that as many Poles as possible vote in the presidential election.”. In order to ensure Tusk’s coalition won the 2023 parliamentary election, a large turnout was considered essential, particularly among younger urban Poles.
