Below that is South Jersey.
Democratic politics here are dominated by an old-fashioned political machine that is backing the lone South Jersey candidate in the field: former state Sen. Steve Sweeney.
And because South Jersey is part of the Philadelphia media market, he’s not well-known in the rest of the state, which is served heavily by the New York market.
And to the extent he is known, Sweeney’s connection to the South Jersey machine is a liability.
The history of New Jersey Democratic primaries says Sherrill should win — but is history still worth anything in 2025?
Rep. Mikie Sherrill is the front-runner for the Democratic nomination to be the governor of New Jersey going into Tuesday’s primary. She has run television advertisements on the expensive New York and Philadelphia metro airways, has the support of a large portion of the party establishment, and had opened double-digit leads in two polls released a few weeks ago.
But there is uncertainty. Overall, there hasn’t been much or any reliable public polling. The primary ballot’s layout changes mandated by the court may also significantly lessen the impact of Sherrill’s endorsements from significant county Democratic organizations.
Both of Sherrill’s rivals have gained ground. However, it appears that this has kept them in each other’s path thus far, preventing one from becoming Sherrill’s obvious replacement. Think about the political geography of the state.
The approximate location of Route 195 on a map can be drawn as a line south of Mercer and Monmouth counties. South Jersey is beneath that. An outdated political apparatus that supports the only South Jersey candidate in the race—a former state senator—dominates Democratic politics in this area. Steve Sweeney. .
The problem for Sweeney is that this area will only account for around 30% of all primary votes. Furthermore, he is not well-known throughout the rest of the state, which is primarily served by the New York market, because South Jersey is a part of the Philadelphia media market.
Additionally, Sweeney’s affiliation with the South Jersey machine is a liability to the extent that it is known. StimSight Research’s May Insider NJ poll found that more Democratic voters than any other candidate described him as a “typical machine politician.”. It makes sense that he has trailed far behind in the polls.
In North Jersey, which has a large number of votes, the other contenders can all assert a certain edge. Ras Baraka, the mayor of the largest city in the state, is expected to win by a landslide. In addition to being the seat of Essex County, Newark has the highest number of Democrats registered in the county. Since Baraka is the most well-known Black candidate in the race and Sean Spiller, the president of the state teachers union, is also Black, the fact that over 40% of Essex’s population is Black should help him further. Another treasure trove of votes may be found in nearby Union County, which has the second-highest percentage of Black citizens.
Baraka has also attempted to appeal to the progressive wing of the party more broadly. Since his arrest at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility last month, he has pushed hard to the left and strengthened his anti-Trump credentials. That could form the basis of a strong coalition in a statewide primary when combined with strong Black support.
But the presence of Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who is also adopting left-wing themes and has presented his campaign as a battle against the Democratic establishment, has put Baraka in the progressive lane. Democrats were asked in an Insider NJ poll if they thought any of the candidates were “true progressives.”. By far the most citations were given to Baraka and Fulop. Stated differently, each of them is gaining support that the other could greatly benefit from.
An additional contender, Rep. Josh Gottheimer has aimed his message more moderately, stressing the cost of living and promising tax breaks. By turning around a traditionally Republican district, Gottheimer won his House seat and has accumulated an impressive campaign fund. Bergen’s official Democratic organization has endorsed him, and he is expected to do well in suburban Bergen County, his political base.
However, when he entered the race, Gottheimer was relying on his perceived electability to win over not only his home county but also several other important county organizations in North Jersey. With their own strong turnout operations and the capacity to spend on behalf of their chosen candidates, those groups still have the feel of vintage political machinery. When Hudson County officials, who include Fulop’s Jersey City, backed Gottheimer last year, he appeared to strike gold. It was the first of many large dominoes to fall, he hoped. However, over the course of the winter, that agreement fell through, and Sherrill was instead supported by the Hudson group.
Gottheimer also continued to be left out. Warren County, a small, rural county in the northwest of the state, is the only other party that has endorsed Bergen.
Rather, those county machines chose to accompany Sherrill and her perceived electability. She has been a strong fundraiser and, like Gottheimer, she won a long-held GOP seat on her way to Congress. Her experience piloting Navy helicopters has also been a major selling point. Every significant North Jersey county machine, excluding Bergen’s, has endorsed Sherrill; collectively, these will generate roughly 70% of the primary’s votes.
The almost unanimous display of establishment support has given Sherrill’s campaign momentum and signaled to other influential people and donors to join the cause. Additionally, it gives her a practical advantage in getting out to vote.
The line, however, is a crucial component that is absent this year. Previously, Sherrill could have received a highly preferred position on primary ballots from county parties. However, that authority was overturned by a court decision last year. All eyes will be on Tuesday’s results to see how much that weakens the machines’ influence in primary elections.
Sherrill, however, has escaped the drawbacks of being linked to the political establishment. In the same Insider NJ poll, only 20% of Democrats said she was a “typical machine politician”—half as many as said Sweeney was. An overwhelming majority of Democrats, more than any other group, believed she could win the November election, according to that poll.
There will be pockets of strong support for each of the major candidates on Tuesday. But according to polls and endorsements, Sherrill has the capacity to do well overall, even in counties where she does not receive the majority of the vote. She will win on Tuesday if she can fulfill that potential.
We’re flying blind here, though, I must admit. There hasn’t been nearly any public polling that would detect a change in the race’s dynamics in recent weeks. Additionally, “the line’s” demise has forced the primary into even more uncharted territory. Sherrill should win, according to New Jersey Democratic primary history, but is history still relevant in 2025?
