More Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice Fantasy Football Trade Tools Week 3 Fantasy Football Forecast Jump ahead to check out my advice for each team using the table below!
Ty Johnson was effective in the passing game, catching both of his targets (11% target share) for 33 yards.
LA will play at the Steelers in Week 3, followed by the Chiefs, and a Week 5 bye week.
He had a 49% air yards share in Week 2 because Young generated just 75 air yards passing.
The Titans will host the Packers in Week 3, followed by the Dolphins and a Week 5 bye week.
The one constant in the Ravens’ offense through two games has been Flowers, who has a 27% target share.
Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated the target share, receiving 19 targets (35% target share), catching 11 passes for 119 yards with 32 YAC.
The Lions will play at Arizona in Week 3, followed by the Seahawks and a Week 5 bye week.
In Week 3, the Chiefs will play the Falcons, followed by the Chargers and Saints, before a bye week in Week 6.
Philly will play at New Orleans in Week 3, followed by the Buccaneers and a bye week in Week 5.
I hope this weekly post helps you stay up to date on all the action from NFL Week 2, which is officially over. I will be providing you with the KEY ACTION items, such as waiver wire pickups, trades, adds, drops, stashes, buys, sells, starts, sits, and more. – according to the events of the previous week, for your fantasy football team. You just need to follow my lead; I’ll take care of sorting through the data. My marketing professor in college used to say, “Keep it simple, stupid.”. The KISS maxim is perfected.
It goes without saying that I’ll highlight the most important points and possibly just noise from the weekend’s previous matchups using statistics and what I saw on film. As they are undoubtedly the players fantasy managers have the most doubts about, I will work hard to highlight players who have just finished divisive performances.
Additionally, if there is a need or I think some tables fit in, I would be more than happy to add them.
Reiterating, the goal of the Fantasy Forecast has always been to pinpoint the players who are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and hitting high-value targets because these players are typically early adopters of future fantasy production. Additionally, they don’t always show up in the standard box score.
brand-new for this year. FantasyPros’ in-house data scientist Sam Hoppen has provided more graphics and an opening trade advice column!
To set ourselves up for future success, let’s now reveal the Fantasy Forecast for Week 3.
It’s time to take a ride on the (Breece) lightning once more. Considering that the schedule for Week 3 looks INCREDIBLY exciting.
Additional Advice on Fantasy Football Waiver Wire.
Expert Rankings for Week One of Fantasy Football.
Advice for Starting and Sitting in Fantasy Football.
Trade Tools for Fantasy Football.
Fantasy Football Schedule for Week 3.
Use the table below to skip ahead and see my recommendations for each team!
Trade Guidance.
In this week’s trade advice column, I want to address a few points.
It’s usually the case when a player performs better than they actually are. Likewise, the other way around. Is this player who has produced these past two weeks REALLY who they are?
A willingness to “buy high” and “sell low” should be maintained. “The buy low/sell high method is the standard for most trade analysis, but is it really a practical strategy that transcends theory, given that everyone is aware of it?
We can’t be as dedicated to our priors at this point—two weeks in, for better or worse. You must take into account the impact that this player, or players, are having on your roster when selling cheap. It’s time to change course if they keep trying to force their way into your lineup with no luck. Get rid of the temptation to save yourself. If a player is a losing proposition overall, consider whether they are a winning proposition as well; if so, pursue them, even if it is by the narrowest of margins.
Recall your initial draft decision regarding that player as well. You should lower your expectations if it’s because you were expecting something different to happen that hasn’t happened in the last two games.
What questions does this raise for you? You’re disciplined enough to start the underperforming player off the bench. Fortune. You are safe from their harm. After that, though, they have a pleasant week. You’re feeling tempted once more to start them in the first place. However, they burst once more. The cycle keeps going.
Try to distance yourself from a player if you don’t think they can have back-to-back excellent performances. Your biggest headache will be deciding whether to start or stop. Without headaches, life is better.
On occasion, I enjoy trading in my “low players” for other “low players” on another team who are more in need of me.
I want to specifically emphasize how much I oppose selling low with regard to WRs. You’ll always get more value for your money after a volatile week because the position is naturally volatile. It’s a lot more sensible strategy.
In terms of buying high, I would advise being assertive. Exchange several powerful assets for a single, exceptional asset. Bring in the best player while giving the opposing manager options. If you have depth to deal with—especially when dealing with other managers who have a lot of stock—buy high.
If you don’t need those players on your roster, even as benchwarmers, sell them cheaply. Your third or fourth round pick may be sitting idle if you made good draft decisions in the later rounds. Exchange him for a long-term stash or a handcuff.
Finally, even if they are far down the depth charts, invest in rookies who keep making an impression. For mediocre production, it’s wise to keep any kind of flash on hand.
Additionally, before you start sending out trade requests, take a look at the other manager’s roster. Provide a rationale for your approach to the trade, at the very least. Certain teams have a record of 0-2 while others are beset by numerous injuries. You should hold trade negotiations with these teams.
Run percentages for Tight End and Wide Receiver routes (Week 2).
Running Back Snap Rates (Second Week).
Miami Dolphins.
Steer clear of Jonnu Smith and purchase De’Von Achane. Hold or sell Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.
With three interceptions and one touchdown, Tua Tagovailoa completed 17 of 25 passes for 145 yards. In the end, he received a 56-point passer rating.
Nope. 2 quarterback Skylar Thompson had a 73.5% passer rating after completing 8 of 14 passes for 80 yards without a touchdown.
De’Von Achane led the Dolphins in receiving (69 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions) and rushing (96 yards on 22 carries), forcing nine missed tackles in 29 touches overall, according to Next Gen Stats. Playing 62% of the snaps, he was rewarded with 4 red-zone carries.
In a game, Achane had never had more than 22 touches. Achane was less effective as a rusher (-26 rushing yards over expected) than a receiver (+25 receiving yards over expected). Late in the first quarter, an Achane 5-yard flat route scored the Dolphins’ lone touchdown of the game.
Rookie running back Jaylen Wright had a difficult time in his NFL debut, gaining just four yards on five carries. Jeff Wilson Jr. was not involved, and Raheem Mostert was not active. suffered an injury during the match.
Jonnu Smith, a tight end, caught six of his seven targets for 53 yards, or 19% of the total targets. In terms of routes run, he led the Dolphins. Because of this usage, I’d like to make Smith a top waiver wire pick, but Miami’s QB situation is too uncertain to trust a fringe fantasy tight end.
Eleven percent of the targets were Jaylen Waddle’s four, which he caught for forty-one yards. In terms of snaps, he was the top Miami wide receiver.
Tyreek Hill hauled in 24 yards, including 25 yards per target, after catching three of his six targets (17 percent target share).
Two receptions for 12 and 8 yards went to each of Wilson and D. Smythe, while Grant DuBose caught one of his three targets for 13 yards. In snaps and routes, DuBose trailed Braxton Berrios as the WR4.
Despite being targeted four times, Robbie Chosen only managed one catch for five yards. Julian Hill failed to score despite seeing two red-zone targets.
The big-play offense of Miami was constrained by Buffalo’s defense. similar to how they performed in Arizona last week and how they have played under head coach Sean McDermott.
In 31 of 43 dropbacks (72 percent), the Bills used split-safety coverage, which is their fourth-highest percentage in a game since 2018, according to Next Gen Stats.
Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion is obviously the biggest worry for fantasy football managers. Miami may be without their starting quarterback for some time given his lengthy history of recorded concussions. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will start third-year quarterback Skylar Thompson. He was selected as the QB2 after defeating Mike White in training camp.
Thompson, a former Kansas State 7th-round pick, started three games as a rookie and finished 1-2. (ATS, 2-1). Nevertheless, he was also hurt in his first start; thus, he was 2-0 ATS in his two complete rookie starts, one of which was at Buffalo in the postseason.
Even though he was hyper-targeting Tyreek Hill, there was a noticeable difference in the fantasy output of Miami’s best playmakers overall.
What is the best course of action for fantasy managers with Hill, Waddle, and Achane in this situation? To start, I am less concerned about Achane in the long run because of his role in the underneath passing game. In fact, I would try to get him LOW. If the quarterback is upgraded, Miami might rely more on the run game.
It’s more challenging in Waddle/Hill. It is unrealistic to expect Thompson to propel both players to weekly production. Though almost all wide receivers experience spiked weeks, those guys are still too talented to avoid them. I can’t advise selling low because there will be better opportunities to sell high (unless another manager, like Jaxon Smith-Njigba for Waddle, for example, offers you a good deal for an out). Once more, I am all for getting something for the Dolphins wide receivers without having to wait for a turnaround in Week 3.
Recall that we are using Thompson’s stats from his rookie quarterback draft class in the seventh round. Under Mike McDaniel, he has played in the Dolphins offense for three seasons. For the QB2 position, he defeated White. I think he’s changed, and that’s something that needs to be acknowledged. Miami’s offense is one of the few that relies more on schemes than QBs. Tagovailoa is better than Thompson. However, this offense’s downgrade from Tua to him won’t be as noticeable as it would in most other offenses that lose their starting quarterback.
I predict that Miami will put on an above-average offensive display in Week 3, especially since they will have more time to prepare for Seattle (a defense that has not faced any serious offensive threats through two games). The Dolphins have the offensive weapons to cause problems, and Mike Macdonald’s defensive scheme is difficult to learn. After they demonstrate their abilities, you SELL by having two unpleasant matchups and a bye in Week 6 ahead. By then, maybe, we’ll be able to see Tagovailoa more clearly?
As previously mentioned, Miami’s schedule includes games against Seattle in Week 3, the Titans, the Patriots, and a bye in Week 6.
Reverse to ascend.
The Buffalo Bills.
Purchase Josh Allen | Sell James Cook, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid.
Josh Allen threw one touchdown on 13 of 19 passes for 139 yards, with no interceptions. His final passer rating was 107 points, and he averaged 7 points for every attempt.
James Cook, who averaged an amazing 7 points per yard, dominated the ground game with 11 carries for 78 yards and two touchdowns, including a 49-yard touchdown run.
Cook has “learned” how to score touchdowns, just as Happy Gillmore did when he was trying to improve his puttering skills. His fantasy production will reach an all-time low now that he’s finally seeing red-zone usage. Cook went off in the second week of the 2023 season. However, he lacked the TDs to match the output. He does so this year. Purchase high.
I believe that means Josh Allen will see fewer rushing touchdowns. I rate Allen’s return on investment (ROS) lower than that of the remaining elite group of fantasy quarterbacks due to the condition of his receivers.
Ray Davis, a rookie, gained 29 yards on nine carries.
With 12 yards gained per catch (YAC) and an average of 10.8 yards per catch, Khalil Shakir caught all five targets (26 percent target share, 29 percent target rate) for 54 yards.
Ty Johnson caught both of his targets (11 percent target share) for 33 yards, demonstrating his effectiveness in the passing game.
Dalton Kincaid demonstrated his dependability as a tight end by catching all four targets (21 percent of the targets shared) for 33 yards. But Dawson Knox outperformed him (53 percent vs 42 percent). Kincaid finished third in Week 2 after finishing second on the team in routes run in Week 1. Even so, his 75% route participation rate is on par with his 27% target rate for each route run. In a weak TE landscape, I continue to believe that Kincaid is worth making low-ball offers.
James Cook made a contribution as well, catching one pass on one target and running 17 yards for a touchdown.
Curtis Samuel was held without a reception on his single target, and Keon Coleman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling each had one reception on two targets for three yards.
After a more difficult matchup, I would purchase Coleman cheaply. Of the Bills wide receivers, he continued to play the most snaps (91%) and run the most routes. Josh Allen’s arm wasn’t going to be used much in this matchup.
On Monday Night Football in Week 3, Buffalo takes on the Jaguars, and then the Texans and Ravens.
Return to the front.
The Indianapolis Colts.
Purchase Anthony Richardson, Transfer Michael Pittman Jr., and Add Josh Downs. Hold Alec Pierce with & Adonai Mitchell.
It was a difficult game for the Indianapolis Colts offense. Quarterback Anthony Richardson finished with a 41.8 passer rating after completing 17 of 34 passes for 204 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. Richardson demonstrated his athletic ability by running for 37 yards on four separate occasions, including a 21-yard run.
Richardson completed six of sixteen passes over ten air yards for a hundred yards, a touchdown, and three interceptions (one of which came on a Hail Mary attempt), according to Next Gen Stats.
Though he was kept out of the end zone, Jonathan Taylor led the ground attack with 12 carries for 103 yards (8 points/6 YPC). With four targets, he also made a contribution in the passing game. He caught two passes for 32 yards, including a 29-yard reception that went all the way for the team.
Just 52% of the snaps were played by JT, compared to 32% by Trey Sermon. I’m not sure why he didn’t play more against the poor run defense of the Packers. Sermon outran Taylor in routes, and the Colts fell behind right away. Head coach Shane Steichen is being blasphemous.
Richardson’s top target, Alec Pierce, saw seven targets and hauled in five passes for 56 yards and one touchdown. With 160 air yards in Week 2 and 278 air yards through two games, Pierce has established himself as Richardson’s go-to player.
Adonai Mitchell also caught all four of his targets for 30 yards, while Michael Pittman had a quiet day, catching just three of seven targets for 21 yards. CB Carrington Valentine stopped the play when he was targeted deep in the end zone.
With a 28 percent target share through two games, Pittman is ranked eighth in the NFL. He had a dramatic comeback from a similar situation the previous season.
Josh Downs’s return—who was on the verge of playing this week—could diminish Mitchell’s role. Richardson may be able to get his passing back on track with the help of Downs, who was a human hype machine during training camp. Additionally, after a subpar performance, it is a reason to buy cheap on Richardson.
While tight ends Kylen Granson and Andrew Ogletree each saw two targets but did not play a major role, Mo Alie-Cox made a big play with a 22-yard reception on his lone target. The Colts offense was unable to keep up overall.
The Colts’ next three games include a bad matchup against the Bears, another bad matchup against the Steelers, and a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The week leading up to Jacksonville should be used to reinvest in these underutilized Colts wide receivers and overall players because I believe that this passing game will struggle for at least the next two games.
Reverse to ascend.
Packers of Green Bay.
Add Josh Jacobs & Jayden Reed | Purchase Tucker Kraft.
Backup quarterback Malik Willis led the Green Bay Packers’ successful offensive effort, completing 12 of 14 passes for 122 yards, one touchdown, and a 126.8 passer rating. Willis made a contribution on the ground as well, gaining 41 yards on six carries, including a 19-yard long run.
Leading the Packers in ground yardage with 32 carries for 151 yards (4 points per yard) and a 34-yard long run, Josh Jacobs was the MVP of the ground game. He fumbled in the end zone, and a holding penalty cost him another 20-yard touchdown. 67% of the snaps were played by him.
In red-zone carries without a touchdown score, he leads the NFL with seven. Gradually, the regression will set in because this backfield struggled to score in the red zone the previous year.
Considering the workload he is expected to have at quarterback with Willis at the position, I will keep trying to get Jacobs.
With two rushes for 37 yards, including a 22-yard run, Jayden Reed also had an impact. With six carries, rookie MarShawn Lloyd added 15 yards. Lloyd was the second running back to touch the ball, but a holding penalty cost him the touchdown. In the end, Emanuel Wilson outperformed Lloyd by 19% to 14%.
Romeo Doubs was the primary target in the passing game, catching all three of his targets for 62 yards. His share of the air yards was 65 percent.
Dontayvion Wicks caught three passes for 26 yards and one touchdown out of four targets. Jayden Reed also contributed with nine yards on his two receptions, while tight end Tucker Kraft caught two of his three targets for 16 yards. Kraft maintained his grip on the Packers TE1 position by playing 80% of the snaps.
Nothing was caught by Christian Watson.
Next Gen Stats shows that in Week 1, the Packers offense ran with 11 personnel on 78 percent of the snaps, which is the second-highest percentage in a game since the season’s beginning.
Luke Musgrave and Lloyd each had one reception, with Lloyd adding three yards and Musgrave gaining six.
With Willis at quarterback, you most likely weren’t starting any Packers wide receivers this past week. Until they get Jordan Love back, the Packers will be very run-heavy.
While waiting, purchase these gifted Packers wide receivers cheap. You should have no trouble trading for them because there won’t be any bye weeks until Week 5, so you can keep them on your bench for the long run.
In Week 3, the Packers take on the Titans; then, the Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals.
Reverse to ascend.
Saints of New Orleans.
Buy Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed | Sell Alvin Kamara | Add Foster Moreau.
Under center, Derek Carr led the New Orleans Saints to a strong performance, completing 11 of 16 passes for 243 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick. With effective ball distribution, Carr helped the team mount a potent offensive attack.
Dallas couldn’t put any pressure on Carr. The Cowboys’ pressure rate against Carr was 35 points per cent, which is the fourth-lowest since the 2023 season began, thanks to only six pressures on 17 passing dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats.
The team’s workhorse, Alvin Kamara, averaged 5.8 yards per carry while carrying the ball 20 times for 115 yards, including three rushing touchdowns and a 15-yard touchdown run. Jamaal Williams, who added eight carries for 39 yards, and Taysom Hill, who added three carries for 18 yards, helped support him.
With 96 yards and a touchdown from four targets, Rashid Shaheed emerged as the most impressive receiver. In 96% of the dropbacks, this man ran a route. Under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, Shaheed will always be a vital component of the Saints offense.
It may sound absurd, but Shaheed is the ideal player to target in a “sell-low.”. Nobody believes in him because of his reputation as a boom-or-bust wide receiver. Believe. His new responsibility in this offense is to raise his ceiling. After two games, he is ranked eighth in terms of receiving yards on nine targets.
With a target rate of 38% per route run and a 53 percent air yards share, Chris Olave saw six targets and caught four for 81 yards but no touchdowns.
Along with being heavily involved in the passing game, Alvin Kamara caught two of his three targets for 65 yards and one touchdown.
Being one of the greatest running backs to play in the last ten years, Kamara’s four touchdown performance adds just another outrageous fantasy performance to his impressive resume. But just to give you a friendly reminder, Kamara had a fantastic start to the season last year as well, finishing Weeks 3–9 at RB6 in points per game. RB17 defeated him in Weeks 10–18.
I agree that his usage of the 20% target share that he has received so far is excellent. However, with an aging running back and a dubious offensive line, the TDs might have modest rushing efficiency in the final stages of the game.
Kamara has already scored five touchdowns, matching his average from the previous two seasons. This seems like an easy sell-high window to me.
Taysom Hill only gained a few yards by catching one target. Despite not seeming particularly serious, the chest injury that sent him to the hospital was assessed.
Foster Moreau played the most tight end snaps for the second week in a row. A 26-yard touchdown reception by him was also nullified due to a penalty.
After hosting the Eagles at home in Week 3, the Saints play three straight games at home: against the Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers.
Return to the front.
Dallas Cowboys.
Offload Rico Dowdle.
With a passer rating of 78 points3, Dak Prescott finished having completed 27 of 39 passes for 293 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
With seven carries for 30 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, Rico Dowdle led the ground attack. He got things going and got the initial carry. 16 yards were gained by Ezekiel Elliott on six ball carries. Deuce Vaughn gained 11 yards on four rushes. Dowdle also made a contribution to the passing game, hauling in four of five passes for 29 yards.
Dowdle’s snap percentage was 43%, Elliott’s was 40%, and Vaughn’s was 14%. Elliott ran the most routes.
It’s an ugly 3-way committee that nobody can have success with. Zeke continues to seem like the best option for using the red zone, which exacerbates the situation. In the second week, they rested Elliott in favor of Vaughn.
Once Dowdle “started” in Week 2, sell him.
Four of CeeDee Lamb’s seven targets, including a long of 57 yards, were caught for 90 yards and one touchdown.
With nine targets and six catches for 82 yards (more than 100 air yards), Jalen Tolbert was the player most frequently targeted. For a player who had been heavily anticipated during the offseason, he appeared impressive, and in Week 2, his route participation rose from 69 percent to 89 percent.
Another player involved was tight end Luke Schoonmaker, who caught all six targets for 43 yards. Though he was heavily involved, he only played 40% of the snaps. Jake Ferguson might play a part if he misses another week.
Catching both targets for a distance of 19 yards, Brandin Cooks saw two.
Although there were no touchdowns scored through the air, Elliott, Jalen Brooks, Vaughn, and Turpin all made modest gains.
With the Cowboys continuing to underwhelm in the ground game, I’d speculatively add Dalvin Cook in deeper formats. Maybe he gets more run with nobody currently running away with the Dallas RB1 job.
They will host the Ravens in Week 3, followed by the Giants, Steelers, and Lions.
Back to top.
Los Angeles Chargers.
Sell Quentin Johnston | Buy Ladd McConkey | Drop Josh Palmer.
Justin Herbert completed 14 of 20 passes for 130 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 100. Per Next Gen Stats, Herbert was nearly perfect against the Panthers when passing from a clean pocket, completing 13 of 14 for 115 yards and both touchdowns (+21.7 percent CPOE). However, he got hurt on a sack and will be further tested.
Running back J. K. Dobbins was the star on the ground, rushing 17 times for 131 yards (7.7 YPC) with a long of 43 yards, scoring a touchdown. Like last week, the move still remains to sell high for the injury-prone Dobbins. But if you don’t get anything worthwhile, just continue to ride the wave of the NFL’s leading rusher. Tougher matchup on deck versus the Steelers.
Gus Edwards contributed with 18 carries for 59 yards, though he was kept out of the end zone.
The backfield was a 50/50 split in snaps, but Edwards was more involved than in Week 1. He was the second-to-last player to rush EPA through two games, but he was ineffective.
Hassan Haskins had three rushes for 11 yards (garbage time), and Herbert added eighteen yards on six carries.
Leading the receiving group with six targets, Quentin Johnston caught five for 51 yards, including two touchdowns. With Josh Palmer entering the game hurt on his knee, he played as the wide receiver.
Will Dissly scored 29 yards by catching all three of his targets.
Palmer added two catches for 19 yards (two targets) and Ladd McConkey caught two of his four targets for 26 yards. Even though McConkey had fewer routes than QJ had in Week 2, he was still targeted at a clip of 27%.
Through the first two games, their target shares are the same. I believe you are aware of my leaning. Take aim at the amateur.
Hurst Hayden and J. G. With one reception each, Dobbins also made a small contribution. Among the tight ends for the Bolts, Hurst dominated the routes (77 percent).
Johnston was a productive top target for Herbert, scoring two touchdowns. Ground game dominance by Dobbins included a big play that helped set the tone for the Chargers’ successful offensive campaign.
After Week 3’s game against the Steelers, LA will play the Chiefs before having a bye week in Week 5.
Return to the top.
Carolina Panthers.
Purchase Andy Dalton along with Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Brooks.
In Week 2, the offensive woes of the Carolina Panthers persisted, as quarterback Bryce Young completed just 18 of 26 passes for 84 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception.
Next Gen Stats reports that in a 26-3 rout at home against the Chargers, Young failed to complete a single pass over 10 air yards. Young trailed on all of his dropbacks, but he only attempted two passes over ten air yards. Woof.
His subpar performance had a knock-on effect.
Leading the ground game with 10 carries for 64 yards (6 point 4 YPC), including a long of 23 yards, was running back Chuba Hubbard. He played with a snap share of 58 percent, much like in Week 1. Less productively, Miles Sanders carried the ball seven times for 20 yards (2 points, 9 YPC).
In the passing game, Hubbard was also involved, catching four of five targets for 12 yards.
Young added 6 yards on a single carry as well.
Tommy Tremble, a tight end, was targeted four times and managed to catch three passes for 23 yards, including 17 yards after the catch.
Three times, Adam Thielen was the target; he caught two of them for 20 yards. Diontae Johnson only caught three of his six targets for fifteen yards. Johnson has three red-zone targets this season and zero touchdowns. Because Young only produced 75 air yards passing in Week 2, he had a 49 percent air yards share.
A combined 94% of the snaps were played by Johnson and Thielen. remained irrelevant.
With Young at quarterback, this offense is really depressing.
On Monday, Andy Dalton was benched in favor of Bryce Young by Panthers head coach Dave Canales’ decision.
With Dalton at the center, I genuinely think the offense will be much better for the Panthers, especially considering their current offensive line. In his one start last season for the Panthers, Dalton threw for 361 yards and two TDs.
Young has been the problem with the offense, not the supporting cast that has improved from last season. He has no pocket awareness and never looks to throw the ball downfield.
Buy low on the Panthers, i. e. , WR Diontae Johnson and RB Jonathon Brooks (who may return soon from the NFI).
And be sure to add the Red Rifle in Superflex 2QB formats.
Carolina will face the Raiders in Week 3, followed by the Bengals and Bears.
Back to top.
Cleveland Browns.
Add D’Onta Foreman | Sell Jerome Ford | Buy Amari Cooper.
The Cleveland Browns had a rough day offensively, with Deshaun Watson completing 22 of 34 passes for 186 yards, no touchdowns, and a passer rating of 78.8.
Jerome Ford led the Browns’ backfield, rushing seven times for 64 yards (9.1 YPC) with a long of 36 yards. Ford caught one target for 0 yards. He only ran a route on 29 percent of the dropbacks. It was a big decline from his Week 1 usage, where he was heavily involved in the passing game, running 36 routes versus 11 in Week 2.
D’Onta Foreman added 42 yards on 14 carries (3.0 YPC), with his longest run going for nine yards. Foreman started this game as the Browns wanted to get him more involved (38 percent snap share) after he barely played in Week 1. He also drew the carries in the red zone for the Browns.
Watson chipped in with 20 yards on five carries (4.0 YPC), including a 9-yard rush. Pierre Strong had one rush for -5 yards.
Jerry Jeudy led the Browns in receiving, with six targets, five receptions, and 73 yards (12.2 YPC), including 10 YAC. Elijah Moore was heavily involved, catching 6 of 8 targets for 44 yards (7.3 YPC) with 21 YAC.
David Bell caught all three of his targets for 27 yards before leaving with an injury. Cedric Tillman looks like the WR4 on the depth chart. Tillman accomplished a two-yard catch on one of the two targets.
Amari Cooper caught three of eight targets for 11 yards in another quiet game. Another pass that would have resulted in a touchdown was dropped by him. Nope.
In air yards, he is ranked fifth (278). To date this season, he has accumulated 27 receiving yards. In this case, something has to give.
Playing 49 percent of the snaps, tight end Jordan Akins caught his lone target for 10 yards.
In addition to being targeted twice as a receiver, Pierre Strong also had a hamstring injury.
D’Onta Foreman accomplished a nine-yard catch on his lone target.
Week 3’s home games for the Browns, Giants, Raiders, Commanders, and Eagles are scheduled.
Return to the front.
Jacksonville Jaguars.
Purchase Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr. Accept this, Travis Etienne Jr. Incorporate Brenton Strange.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence had offensive difficulties; Lawrence completed 14 of 30 passes for 220 yards and no touchdowns, with a passer rating of 71 points. In a game against the Chiefs on Week 2, 2023, Trevor Lawrence had his lowest CPOE (-11 point 2 percent), according to Next Gen Stats. Without Christian Kirk or Evan Engram, there hasn’t been a quick passing game.
Leading the ground game with 13 carries for 52 yards (4 points per yard), including a 20-yard gain and one rushing touchdown, was Travis Etienne. Etienne participated in the passing game, gaining six yards by catching three of the four targets. (13.3 percent is the target share). Once again, his snap share was 73 percent.
Trevor Lawrence contributed 45 rushing yards on two carries (22.5 YPC), including a 33-yard run.
D’Ernest Johnson added 26 yards on five carries (5.2 YPC). He played 28 percent of the snaps. Tank Bigsby fumbled on special teams and left the game with an injury (shoulder) after taking a huge hit.
Brian Thomas Jr. was the most productive receiver, catching two of his four targets for 94 yards (23.5 YPC), including 25 yards after the catch. (Target Share: 13.3 percent). I love Thomas long-term, but I hate Week 3 versus Buffalo for the Jaguars’ big-play specialist.
Jaguars No. 2 tight end Brenton Strange was targeted six times, catching three passes for 65 yards (21.7 YPC), including 16 YAC. (Target Share: 20 percent). Strange saw great TE deployment running a route on 72 percent of dropbacks with 119 air yards to boot and a 27 percent target rate.
Starting tight end Evan Engram was ruled out after warmups. TE Luke Farrell caught both of his targets for 13 yards.
Gabe Davis caught three of seven targets (two in the red zone) for 43 yards (14.3 YPC) with 15 YAC. (Target Share: 23 percent).
Christian Kirk had three targets but ended the game with -1 receiving yard on just one catch. (Target Share: 10 percent). Because of an unauthorized shift penalty, Kirk did have a touchdown taken off the board.
On Kirk, I would buy low. Engram’s injury may take some time to heal, and Kirk’s value has been severely damaged by two poor games this season. Kirk’s absence has probably not helped the Jaguars offense, which has not performed well. Kirk has a great opportunity to have a double-digit game as Jacksonville tries to get back on track, especially considering how the Bills try to limit big plays.
The following three games will see the Jaguars play Buffalo, Houston, and Indianapolis.
Reverse to ascend.
Patriots from New England.
Purchase Rhamondre Stevenson and include Hunter Henry and Ja’Lynn Polk.
With 11 carries for 96 yards (8 points per yard) and a long of 45 yards, Antonio Gibson led the New England Patriots’ heavy ground game reliance in their Week 2 encounter.
Rhamondre Stevenson produced a long of eighteen yards and 21 carries for 81 yards (3 point 9 YPC) during the game. His status as a workhorse is here to stay, and I’m excited about the matchup with the Jets in Week 3.
Stevenson participated in the passing game as well, snagging two of his five targets for nine yards (18 points, 5 percent). His snap percentage of 72% represented only a minor decline from Week 1.
Antonio Gibson made a seven-yard catch with his lone target.
G. I. J. Osborn made a 7-yard catch on one of his two targets (74.4 percent). Austin Hooper’s lone target was the recipient of one pass for five yards.
With 15 of 27 passes completed for 149 yards and one touchdown, Jacoby Brissett had an 83 point 7 passer rating.
Hunter Henry was the most productive receiver, hauling in eight of twelve passes (44.4% target share) for 109 yards and a touchdown. He also had an amazing 66 yards per target and an 84 percent snap share as the No. 1 target in the Patriots’ TE-heavy offensive scheme.
Ja’Lynn Polk increased his route participation percentage from 62 percent in Week 1 to 69 percent in Week 2, catching two of his three targets (11 points, or 11 percent) for 12 yards and one touchdown. He performed better than DeMario Douglas and Tyquan Thornton. Polk continues to ascend steadily. Place him away.
On just five of his pass attempts, Brissett targeted wide receivers.
Over their next three games, the Patriots will play the 49ers, Dolphins, and Jets.
Return to the front.
The Seattle Seahawks.
Buy Njigba Jaxon Smith and Hold DdotK. Metcalf & Zach Charbonnet.
The Seattle Seahawks came away with a strong offensive performance in Week 2, led by Geno Smith, who completed 33 of 44 passes for 327 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, posting a passer rating of 103.1. Chef Geno was preparing food.
Despite having trouble finding space on the ground, Zach Charbonnet managed 14 carries for 38 yards (2 points/7 YPC) and a rushing touchdown. In the passing game, Charbonnet made a contribution as well, catching five of five targets for 31 yards, including 34 yards gained (11 percent).
Geno Smith added five carries for eight yards (1.6 YPC), primarily scrambling when necessary.
DK Metcalf dominated the target share with 14 targets (32 percent of Smith’s attempts), converting 10 receptions into 129 yards and one touchdown.
He had a long TD grab.
Per Next Gen Stats, Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez shadowed DK Metcalf, aligning across from him on 36 of 44 routes (82 percent), with just six of those routes in press coverage (17 percent).
Metcalf was targeted seven times against Gonzalez, coming away with just three receptions for 24 yards. Metcalf caught all 7 of his targets against other defenders for 105 yards & a TD.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba saw the highest target share at 16 targets (36 percent), catching 12 passes for 117 yards, proving to be a reliable weapon underneath and in the middle of the field with 41 YAC. He was targeted early and often. And more importantly, he has broken out of the part-time usage that hampered him as a rookie. He has a full-time role and is breaking out before our eyes.
Nearly 170 total air yards with the targets coming for JSN.
Keep this in mind regarding JSN: Last year, he had a high target rate per route run (compared to the other Seattle WRs). And now that he’s running more routes, the targets are following.
Buy high. It’s no coincidence that one of Smith’s best games came when Smith-Njigba was HEAVILY involved.
Per Next Gen Stats, Smith recorded most of his production in Week 2 in the short passing game, completing 28 of 31 passes under 10 air yards for 201 yards.
Tyler Lockett caught both of his targets (4.5 percent) for 15 yards. Was last week just a mirage of vintage Lockett?
Jake Bobo also had two targets (4.5 percent), catching both for 15 yards. Noah Fant caught one pass for 14 yards on three targets (7 percent).
Laviska Shenault Jr. added one catch for 6 yards on his only target (2.3 percent).
Seattle will host the Dolphins in Week 3, followed by the Lions, Giants, and 49ers.
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Minnesota Vikings.
Sell Aaron Jones | Add Jalen Nailor & Ty Chandler.
The Minnesota Vikings showcased a balanced offensive effort in their Week 2 matchup, led by quarterback Sam Darnold, who delivered through the air and on the ground. Darnold completed 17 of 26 passes for 268 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 109.1.
Ty Chandler had an impressive game on the ground, rushing 10 times for 82 yards (8.2 YPC), including a long run of 25 yards.
Aaron Jones contributed nine rushes for 32 yards (3.6 YPC) but lost a fumble, while Sam Darnold chipped in with five carries for 32 yards (6.4 YPC). He played more than in Week 1 (61 percent snap share), while Chandler’s snap rate remained the same at 35 percent. His first carry came more than halfway through the second quarter.
I don’t think the box score accurately portrays Jones as the RB1. Still, it’s a friendly reminder that Chandler has a role in this Vikings offense and that Jones isn’t the most reliable RB over a 17-game span. After a hot start, I’d be looking to cash out sooner rather than later on Jones.
The Texans are also a no-joke run defense.
Per Next Gen Stats, Houston allowed Bears running backs to gain more yards than expected on just one of 16 rushes (6.3 percent), their lowest rate of runs over expected since 2018. In 2023, the Texans allowed -270 RYOE to opposing running backs, the fewest in the NFL and the 3rd-fewest over the last six seasons.
Justin Jefferson dominated in the passing game, leading the team with seven targets (27 percent) and catching four passes for 133 yards, including 59 yards after the catch (YAC) and a 97-yard touchdown. He also left the game with a quad injury, but it’s not considered serious. Kevin O’Connell said he will be listed as day-to-day and is expected to play in Week 3.
Jalen Nailor saw four targets (15.4 percent) and secured three receptions for 54 yards with a TD, with 8 YAC. He played nearly the entire game with a 93 percent snap share. 2 red-zone targets while running a route on 100 percent of the dropbacks. He should play a full-time role as long as Jordan Addison remains sidelined.
Jones was targeted six times (23.1 percent) and hauled in five catches for 36 yards, including a massive 61 YAC.
Trent Sherfield had two targets, catching one for 17 yards and 13 YAC.
Brandon Powell was also targeted twice and caught both passes for 16 yards.
Johnny Mundt saw three targets and caught two passes for 12 yards.
The Vikings had the fifth-hardest schedule entering 2024, but they had an easy start in Week 1. In Week 2, Darnold was impressive. But it gets tougher. Weeks 3-5 before their Week 6 bye week: The Texans, Packers, and Jets in London.
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San Francisco 49ers.
Buy Brandon Aiyuk & George Kittle | Hold Jordan Mason | Sell Deebo Samuel | Add Ricky Pearsall & Jauan Jennings.
The San Francisco 49ers had a strong offensive showing in their Week 2 matchup, with Brock Purdy leading the way under center. Purdy completed 28 of 36 passes for 319 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception, with a passer rating of 101.3.
Jordan Mason was the workhorse back for San Francisco, rushing 20 times for 100 yards, including a long run of 22 yards (5.0 YPC). 81 percent snap share and six red zone carries.
Brock Purdy contributed 12 rushing yards on two attempts, while Isaac Guerendo and Deebo Samuel Sr. (two carries) combined for negative rushing yardage.
Samuel Sr. led the receiving group with 10 targets (28 percent), securing eight receptions for 110 yards and 19 yards after the catch (YAC). Like I said last week, Samuel is running pure right now with CMC out and Aiyuk returning slowly.
But I spoke too soon, as Deebo is expected to miss a few weeks with an injury. Injury regression is hitting this 49ers team right in the mouth after they were the NFL’s healthiest team in 2023.
George Kittle was also heavily involved, catching seven of his eight targets (22.2 percent) for 76 yards and one TD, including 48 YAC, proving to be a dangerous weapon after the catch. Kittle was carted into the locker room due to cramping. He should be more involved with Samuel sidelined.
Brandon Aiyuk saw five targets (14 percent, twice in the red zone), catching four passes for 43 yards with 3 YAC. He has four red-zone targets so far this season but zero TDs. However, his WR1 role returned in Week 1, as he ran a route on 93 percent of the dropbacks. He should see a major bump in production with Samuel sidelined.
Jauan Jennings was targeted four times (11.1 percent) and caught two passes for 37 yards. Add him as he looks to fill in the Samuel role. Also, look for Ricky Pearsall in deeper formats as a stash.
Eric Saubert saw two targets, catching both for 26 yards.
Kyle Juszczyk was targeted five times and had three receptions for 19 yards.
Chris Conley and Jordan Mason each had one target but were largely limited in the passing game.
The 49ers face the Rams, Patriots, and Cardinals in their next three games.
Blow-up game for Aiyuk coming against the LA defense.
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New York Giants.
Hold Malik Nabers.
Daniel Jones completed 16 of 28 passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 100.
Devin Singletary was the primary back, rushing 16 times for 95 yards (5.9 YPC) with a TD and a long run of 22 yards. Singletary was targeted once (3.6 percent), catching his only pass for 0 yards. But he was bellcow, earning a 79 percent snap share.
Daniel Jones also contributed with five carries for 32 yards, showcasing his dual-threat ability.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. added two yards on his lone carry.
Rookie Malik Nabers dominated the target share with 18 targets (64 percent TARGET SHARE and nearly 200 air yards), catching 10 passes for 127 yards, including a touchdown and an impressive 85 yards after the catch (YAC). He had another drop toward the end of the game, but the game plan was so clear to feed the rookie WR.
Per Next Gen Stats, Nabers was targeted on 18 of his 26 routes (69 percent target rate), hauling in 10 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. Three of his targets were in the red zone.
That is bonkers usage for the rookie. Even if the QB isn’t perfect, Nabers has a supremely high floor with this type of volume coming his way. Usually, in outlier situations like this, I’d recommend selling high on a player like Nabers. But rookie WRs have the chance to be league winners, and I don’t want to sell for anything but a king’s ransom. Just put him on the trade block and see what offers come in. You might get a strong overpay. Again, we are talking about the Giants No. 1 WR. Conversely, I wouldn’t try to acquire Nabers now for the reasons I just listed. A trade is likely way too pricy.
Darius Slayton was targeted four times (14.3 percent), catching three passes for 33 yards and providing key yardage in the intermediate passing game.
Wan’Dale Robinson also contributed with four targets (14.3 percent), catching two passes for 18 yards. But he scored and cashed the anytime TD bet. Woo!
New York will play at Cleveland in Week 3, followed by Dallas, Seattle, and Cincinnati.
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Washington Commanders.
Buy Brian Robinson Jr. | Sell/Hold Jayden Daniels | Add Zach Ertz.
The Washington Commanders showcased a balanced offensive attack led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, who completed 23 of 29 passes for 226 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions, earning a 99.1 passer rating.
The Kliff Kingsbury horizontal raid continued in Week 2. Per Next Gen Stats, Daniels got the ball out quickly, completing 23 of 29 passes for 226 yards while averaging 2.33 seconds to throw.
Brian Robinson led the ground game with 17 carries for 133 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per carry and a long run of 40 yards. 60 percent snap rate to Ekeler’s 43 percent. Bigger gap than in Week 1.
Jayden Daniels also contributed with his legs, adding 10 carries for 44 yards (4.4 YPC). He took more big hits. I knew this was his issue at LSU, and he seemed always to pop back up. But I’d be prepared with another QB if I rostered Daniels. Or consider flipping him for Richardson straight up after the Colts QB had a down week in Week 2.
Keep in mind that Daniels has not been used as a downfield passer despite that being one of his best attributes in the college ranks.
Austin Ekeler chipped in eight carries for 38 yards, maintaining a steady 4.8 yards per carry. Both Commanders’ RBs earned four carries inside the 20-yard line.
B-Rob had three inside the 10, to Ekeler’s two. Robinson also ran more routes than Ekeler. It’s a great matchup for the Commanders’ ground game in Week 3 versus the Bengals.
Zach Ertz was Daniels’s top target, catching four of four targets (14 percent of Daniels’ attempts) for 62 yards, including 16 YAC. He ran a route on 84 percent of the dropbacks. If you need a tight-end body, you could do worse than Ertz.
Noah Brown caught all three of his three targets (10 percent) for 56 yards, making big plays. He is still very much buried in the WR pecking order.
Austin Ekeler also contributed in the passing game with three receptions on three targets (10.3 percent), accumulating 47 yards, including an impressive 57 YAC.
Terry McLaurin had the highest target share with eight targets (28 percent) but only caught six passes for 22 yards, with 11 YAC. Woof.
Dyami Brown caught two of four targets (13.8 percent) for 17 yards. Two red-zone targets. He and Luke McCaffrey each ran a route on 61 percent of the dropbacks.
Olamide Zaccheaus caught three of three targets for 14 yards.
The Commanders will play the Bengals on MNF in Week 3, followed by Arizona, Cleveland, and the Ravens.
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New York Jets.
Buy Breece Hall | Hold Garrett Wilson | Add Braelon Allen.
Aaron Rodgers completed 18 of 30 passes for 176 yards, with two touchdowns and a passer rating of 98.7.
Breece Hall led the ground game with 14 carries for 62 yards (4.4 YPC), including a long run of 30 yards. He was held to just nine rushing yards in the first half.
Rookie Braelon Allen followed with seven carries for 33 yards (4.7 YPC), with a long of 20 yards and a rushing TD. They took Hall out after he caught a pass in the red zone, and Allen scored on the next red-zone attempt.
Garrett Wilson was targeted six times (20 percent target share), catching four passes for 57 yards but no TDs despite playing 96 percent of the snaps. Wilson has three red-zone targets so far but zero TDs this season. I don’t think we’ve seen this Jets offense truly hit its stride. However, the time is not now to buy. The schedule for Wilson is not good for the next six weeks. The Patriots (Christian Gonzalez), Broncos (Pat Surtain), Vikings, Bills, and Patriots again.
Given the Jets’ late bye week in Week 12, Wilson might be a better trade target a few weeks from now as NY’s offense gets more live reps with Rodgers.
Breece Hall also saw significant action in the passing game, with eight targets (27 percent), catching seven passes for 52 yards and a GREAT touchdown with a 38 percent target rate per route run.
Braelon Allen contributed four targets (13.3 percent), catching two passes for 23 yards and one TD, adding 24 YAC. Both Allen’s scores came inside the red zone.
Note that he AND Hall were in the backfield on Allen’s TD reception. It was a fake to Hall that the defense bit HARD on to open up a wide-open TD grab for Allen.
The snaps were 72 percent for Hall and 35 percent for Allen. Hall was at an 82 percent snap rate in Week 1.
Mike Williams was targeted once (3.3 percent), catching one pass for 19 yards. He made a nice sideline grab and played more than in Week 1 (65 percent).
Allen Lazard was targeted four times (13.3 percent), catching two passes for 11 yards. He operated as the WR2.
Tyler Conklin caught his only two targets (6.7 percent) for 10 yards. He plays all the snaps (93 percent) but is not part of the Jets offensive plans.
Malachi Corley was targeted once (3.3 percent), catching one pass for 4 yards. Jeremy Ruckert was targeted three times (10 percent) but did not record a reception.
I guarantee people are freaking out about Allen’s TDs as “hurting” Hall. Note that Hall was in a 50/50 committee for nearly half the season last year and finished as the RB2 in PPR. Buy.
The Patriots are next on Thursday night.
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Tennessee Titans.
Buy Tony Pollard & Calvin Ridley.
The Tennessee Titans struggled to find consistent rhythm offensively, led by quarterback Will Levis who completed 19 of 28 passes for 192 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 84.2. Per Next Gen Stats, Levis was pressured on 60 percent of his dropbacks.
Tony Pollard led the ground game with 17 carries for 62 yards (3.6 YPC), with a long run of 15 yards. 67 percent snap share. Tony Pollard saw 6 targets (21.4 percent), catching 5 passes for 40 yards, and adding 27 YAC.
Tyjae Spears added six carries for 20 yards (3.3 YPC). He was dealing with an ankle injury and had a 33 percent snap share.
Will Levis showed his mobility with four carries for 38 yards (9.5 YPC), including a 21-yard run.
Calvin Ridley had one carry for 10 yards for a TD.
Calvin Ridley was targeted six times (21.4 percent of passing attempts), catching four passes for 77 yards, including 18 YAC and one TD.
Per Next Gen Stats, Levis’ 40-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley had a 16.5 percent completion probability, the most improbable completion of Levis’ NFL career.
Ridley actually had an earlier chance at a long TD grab that he came up just short of catching.
Through two games, Ridley leads the NFL in air yards (300). The QB play leaves much to be desired, but Ridley sees ridiculous usage in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Tyler Boyd was targeted five times (18 percent), catching two passes for 26 yards.
Chigoziem Okonkwo had three targets (10.7 percent), catching three passes for 16 yards.
Josh Whyle was targeted twice (7.1 percent), catching 2 passes for 13 yards.
Tyjae Spears caught both of his two targets (7.1 percent) for 11 yards.
DeAndre Hopkins had two targets (7.1 percent), catching one pass for 9 yards. He played more snaps, but is still being brought along extremely slowly.
Treylon Burks had one target (3.6 percent) but did not record a reception.
The Titans will host the Packers in Week 3, followed by the Dolphins and a Week 5 bye week.
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Las Vegas Raiders.
Buy Brock Bowers| Add Alexander Mattison | Sell Davante Adams, Zamir White, Jakobi Meyers.
The Las Vegas Raiders leaned on quarterback Gardner Minshew, who completed 30 of 38 passes for 276 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 94.7. Despite efficient passing, the Raiders’ rushing attack struggled, managing only 24 total rushing yards from their lead back.
Zamir White led the rushing game with nine carries for 24 yards (2.7 YPC), with a long of 8 yards.
He ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing EPA through two games. Sell.
Alexander Mattison had four carries for one yard and one TD. He was used at the goal line instead of White. I fully expect Mattison to take over this backfield sooner rather than later.
Davante Adams dominated in the receiving game, seeing 12 targets (32 percent target share), catching nine passes for 110 yards, and adding 14 YAC plus a TD score (three red-zone targets).
With Minshew at the helm, it will be a bumpy ride with Adams. Anytime he booms, he should be placed firmly on the trade block. The target volume has been there both weeks for Adams in the Raiders’ quick, short passing game, but I could see him suffering greatly in less favorable game scripts (such as the ones coming up in the next few weeks) for the Raiders.
Brock Bowers was also heavily involved, catching all nine of his targets (24 percent target share in the first two weeks) for 98 yards and 40 YAC, with a 32 percent target rate per route run while running a route on 65 percent of the dropbacks.
Jakobi Meyers caught four of his five targets (13 percent target share) for 29 yards. No WR is doing fewer with their routes than Meyers. Meyers has an 11.3 percent target rate per route run as Adams/Bowers command the lion’s share of opportunities in the Raiders passing attack.
Zamir White contributed in the passing game with four targets (10.5 percent), catching three passes for 14 yards and a notable 27 YAC. He played 63 percent of the snaps, with Mattison at 22 percent.
Tre Tucker caught both of his two targets (5.3 percent) for 13 yards and 19 YAC.
Michael Mayer was targeted once and had one reception for 11 yards.
The Raiders will face the Andy Dalton-led Panthers in Week 3, followed by the Browns, Broncos, and Steelers.
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Baltimore Ravens.
Sell Derrick Henry | Buy Mark Andrews & Zay Flowers.
The Baltimore Ravens leaned on Lamar Jackson through the air, with the quarterback completing 21 of 34 passes for 247 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, earning a passer rating of 81.4.
Derrick Henry led the rushing attack with 18 carries for 84 yards (4.7 YPC) and a long run of 29 yards and 1 rushing TD. But this was a grim way to start the game. In the first half, Henry had five rushing yards on seven carries. Two games in, and I am not exactly thrilled with how Henry has rushed behind the Ravens offensive line.
Lamar Jackson used his legs for 45 rushing yards on five carries, including a 25-yard long.
Justice Hill added four carries for 22 yards (5.5 YPC), with a long of 14 yards.
Zay Flowers was the focal point of the passing game, receiving 11 targets (32 percent target share) and catching seven passes for 91 yards and 1 TD, including 22 YAC.
The one constant in the Ravens’ offense through two games has been Flowers, who has a 27 percent target share.
Mark Andrews was targeted five times (15 percent target share) and brought in four receptions for 51 yards, with 16 YAC, a 63 percent snap share, and 73 percent route participation.
Isaiah Likely hauled in two of his three targets (9 percent) for 26 yards. He was held to a 49 percent snap share and sub-50 percent route participation. Very unusual for the Ravens to put the “Likely genie” back in the bottle after unleashing him in the season opener.
Rashod Bateman caught all three of his four targets for 40 yards.
Nelson Agholor caught one of his three targets (9 percent) for 13 yards.
Derrick Henry contributed to the passing game with one catch on one target for 12 yards.
Justice Hill also added two catches for 10 yards on two targets. Hill also out-snapped Henry for the second straight game. If Baltimore continues to play in more back-and-forth contests, Herny’s production will remain super volatile. Perhaps there’s a sell-high opportunity ahead of a matchup versus the Cowboys.
They will face Dallas, Buffalo, and the Bengals in the next three games.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaned on Baker Mayfield, who completed 12 of 19 passes for 185 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, posting a passer rating of 90.9. Despite the low volume, the offense made the most of its opportunities with explosive plays from key receivers.
Baker Mayfield led the team in rushing, with 34 yards on five carries (6.8 YPC) with a long run of 12 yards.
Bucky Irving managed seven carries for 22 yards (3.1 YPC), while Rachaad White struggled to get going, gaining just 18 yards on 10 carries (1.8 YPC). He left the game for a portion with a groin injury but returned to action. He still played 71 percent of the snaps, but the injury may have contributed to his lack of production.
Irving played 35 percent of the snaps, a slight increase from Week 1.
Chris Godwin had an outstanding day, receiving eight targets (42 percent target share) and catching seven passes for 117 yards, including a massive 64 yards after the catch.
Mike Evans was targeted six times (32 target share percentage), catching three passes for 42 yards and no touchdowns.
Jalen McMillan caught one of his two targets (15.8 percent) for 21 yards.
Rachaad White caught his one target (5.3 percent) for 5 yards.
Cade Otton was targeted twice (10.5 percent) but failed to record a reception-96 percent route participation.
Chris Godwin was the go-to receiver, racking up significant yards after the catch, including a long reception that helped move the chains. Through two weeks, he ranks third in the NFL in target share (33 percent).
Tampa will host the Denver Broncos in Week 3, followed by the Eagles and Falcons.
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Detroit Lions.
Sell Sam LaPorta | Buy Jameson Williams.
The Detroit Lions fought hard offensively but faced difficulty in finding the end zone despite high yardage from key players. Jared Goff led the passing attack, completing 34 of 55 passes for 307 yards, but threw two interceptions. Goff attempted 13 red-zone passes, but Todd Bowle’s defense locked the Lions out in the red zone.
Goff leads the NFL in red-zone pass attempts without a red-zone TD thrown (19).
Jahmyr Gibbs was the most effective back, with 13 carries for 84 yards (6.5 YPC), including a long run of 24 yards.
David Montgomery added 35 yards on 11 carries (3.2 YPC) and scored a rushing TD.
Jameson Williams ran once for 15 yards, while Jared Goff chipped in 2 rushes for 5 yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated the target share, receiving 19 targets (35 percent target share), catching 11 passes for 119 yards with 32 YAC. 2 red-zone targets. He was seen hobbling after the game, but he should be okay.
Jameson Williams was heavily involved with 11 targets (20 percent), reeling in five catches for 79 yards. He was targeted four times in the red zone. He is tied with Courtland Sutton for the red-zone targets this season without a red-zone TD score.
David Montgomery caught all four targets (7.3 percent), turning them into 35 receiving yards.
Kalif Raymond was targeted four times (7.3 percent) and grabbed three catches for 27 yards.
Jahmyr Gibbs caught all seven targets (12.7 percent), though he only managed 22 receiving yards.
Sione Vaki recorded one reception for 17 yards on two targets.
Sam LaPorta and Tim Patrick saw three targets (5.5 percent), recording two catches each for 13 and 12 yards, respectively. LaPorta’s snaps were not limited.
Unless the St. Brown injury is serious, I am not sure LaPorta will break out of his funk anytime soon. Jameson Williams showed that his Week 1 performance is no fluke. He is a staple part of the offense. And through two games, LaPorta has been hurt the most. Unless one of the WRs or RBs goes down, I am afraid LaPorta isn’t going to turn things around. His 11.8 percent target rate is a bottom-5 mark for TEs this season. And the red-zone targets that went to LaPorta last season are now finding their way into Jamo’s path.
Not to mention, the Cardinals have been strong against TEs through two games this season.
Per Next Gen Stats, Aidan Hutchinson generated a team-high five pressures on 23 pass rushes in Week 2 (21.7 percent pressure rate), including 4.5 sacks. Hutchinson totaled three sacks in the first quarter alone.
The Lions will play at Arizona in Week 3, followed by the Seahawks and a Week 5 bye week.
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Los Angeles Rams.
Sell Colby Parkinson & Kyren Williams | Add Jordan Whittington.
Matthew Stafford completed 19 of 27 passes for 216 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 94.1.
Blake Corum handled eight carries, picking up 28 yards (3.5 YPC) with a long run of 9 yards in the blow-out loss. 15 percent snap share in total garbage time.
Kyren Williams contributed 12 rushes for 25 yards (2.1 YPC), with his longest run being 9 yards. He did score a rushing touchdown. He played 79 percent of the snaps.
Williams also caught four passes on five targets (18.5 percent), contributing 27 receiving yards, including a massive 32 YAC.
Williams was listed as a sell last week and got by with the TD. I don’t think he will be as lucky with the Rams’ offense struggling to move the ball with all their injuries. It’s possible he gets enough volume to survive, but the overall offensive struggles will hurt his total output, especially with all the OL injuries. I’d sell off the high snap share and TD score.
Demarcus Robinson was Stafford’s top target, catching two of his four targets (14.8 percent) for 50 yards. He has the most trust of Stafford and is likely the top plug-in option for fantasy football.
Tutu Atwell saw four targets (14.8 percent) as well, recording three receptions for 48 yards, though he had -1 YAC.
Cooper Kupp was targeted six times (22.2 percent), hauling in four catches for 37 yards. Kupp left the game with an ankle injury. Only played 52 percent of the snaps. He is expected to miss significant time and could be a candidate for IR.
Jordan Whittington had two targets, catching both for 22 yards, with 27 YAC. 50 percent snap share. He is the Rams WR I have the most interest in for the long haul. Most unknown upside that you can keep on your bench for next to nothing.
Tyler Johnson saw three targets and recorded two receptions for 20 yards, including 13 YAC. He operated as the WR2.
At this point in their NFL careers, we know who Robinson and Johnson are. Whittington is in a full-time role and should take over in the slot (Kupp’s role). The rookie played the majority of his snaps from the slot in Week 2.
Colby Parkinson caught one of his two targets for a 12-yard gain. Through two games, Parkinson has the league’s lowest target rate per route run among TEs (10.8 percent).
The Rams will face the 49ers, Bears, and Packers before a Week 6 bye. LA desperately needs the bye week to get their roster healthy.
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Arizona Cardinals.
Buy Trey McBride | Hold/Sell James Conner.
The Arizona Cardinals delivered a dominant performance in Week 2, led by an outstanding outing from quarterback Kyler Murray, who completed 17 of 21 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns, posting a stellar perfect passer rating of 158.3.
James Conner was the workhorse on the ground, racking up 122 yards on 21 carries (5.8 YPC), with a long run of 22 yards and one rushing TD. Conner is on a heater, as he does when healthy. However, the Lions do represent a tough matchup on the ground for Arizona. With these older veteran RBs – with injury records – practice due diligence by seeing what they go for on the trade block.
Kyler Murray chipped in with five rushes for 59 yards (11.8 YPC), including a 26-yard long run.
Emari Demercado broke off a big run for 41 yards, totaling 46 yards on two carries.
Trey Benson struggled to find space, managing 10 yards on 11 carries (0.9 YPC).
Marvin Harrison Jr. led the way with eight targets (38.1 percent), catching four passes for 130 yards and TWO touchdowns. Interestingly enough, he could have scored even more points, having come up short twice in the red zone.
But needless to say, the one-week “buy-low” window for MHJ is long gone.
Trey McBride caught all six targets (29 percent) for 67 yards. Among TEs through two games, McBride leads the NFL in target share (29 percent). Buy low.
Michael Wilson was targeted twice (9.5 percent) and caught both for 31 yards, adding 8 YAC.
Elijah Higgins caught his only target for 18 yards for a TD.
Greg Dortch was targeted twice (9.5 percent) and caught both for 11 yards, adding 11 YAC.
Trey Benson and James Conner each had one target, with Conner catching his for 2 yards.
The Cardinals will play the Lions, Commanders, and 49ers in their next three games.
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Cincinnati Bengals.
Buy Ja’Marr Chase | Sell Zack Moss | Hold Chase Brown | Add Jermaine Burton.
The Cincinnati Bengals fell just short of victory in their Week 2 matchup, with Joe Burrow delivering an efficient performance, completing 23 of 36 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns. He finished with a passer rating of 103.7.
Zack Moss led the backfield with 12 carries for 34 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry. He played 80 percent of the snaps. Moss was targeted once for 13 yards and had five red-zone carries with zero TDs.
But Chase Brown had a productive day on limited touches, carrying the ball four times for 31 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per carry (including a 28-yard rush and 6-plus yard rushes on the remaining three carries).
I hate to beat a dead horse here, but Moss hasn’t been inspiring with his usage thus far. I think Cincy might switch things up in the backfield if Moss doesn’t improve. Sell Moss and hold Brown.
Alexander Mattison’s role as RB1 for the Vikings was unmatched through two weeks in 2023. We all know how that ended up.
Joe Burrow also scrambled for nine yards on six attempts.
Mike Gesicki was the Bengals’ top receiver, catching seven of nine targets (25 percent target share) for 91 yards, with 56 yards after the catch (YAC).
Rookie Jermaine Burton made the most of his two targets (5.6 percent target share), catching one for 47 yards. The Bengals need him without Tee Higgins. Add him in deeper formats.
Ja’Marr Chase caught four of five targets (13.9 percent target share) for 35 yards, including 19 YAC. The Chiefs force offenses to look elsewhere than their primary weapons.
Chase was horrible the first two weeks of the 2023 season. Rinse and repeat, folks.
With the Washington Commanders on deck, I cannot think of another bigger blow-up spot in fantasy football than Chase versus this atrocious Commanders secondary.
Rookie TE Erick All grabbed four of four targets (11.1 percent target share) for 32 yards, adding 15 YAC.
Drew Sample contributed with three receptions on three targets (8.3 percent target share) for 28 yards.
Andrei Iosivas had two catches for 7 yards on four targets, but both went for TD scores.
Trenton Irwin caught one of six targets (16.7 percent target share) for 5 yards. He was targeted five times in the red zone (four times inside the 10). Those targets will almost certainly revert to Chase next week.
I expect the Bengals to heat up with Carolina, Baltimore, Giants, and Browns as their next slate of opponents.
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Kansas City Chiefs.
Add Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, Kareem Hunt | Buy Xavier Worthy | Hold/Sell Travis Kelce.
Patrick Mahomes completed 18 of 25 passes for 151 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 80.6.
Isiah Pacheco led the ground attack with 19 carries for 90 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, including an 11-yard run. He did suffer an ankle injury, and it did not appear initially to be serious. However, as he was seen with crutches post-game, fantasy managers should prepare for the worst.
Reports are surfacing that he fractured his fibula, setting him to miss a lot of time (6-8 weeks).
Patrick Mahomes scrambled for 29 yards on four attempts.
Carson Steele added seven carries for 24 yards and was second in the backfield with a 22 percent snap share.
Rashee Rice was Mahomes’ primary target, catching 5 of 6 targets (24 percent target share) for 75 yards, with 47 YAC and 1 TD.
Justin Watson made the most of his two targets (8 percent target share), catching both for 22 yards, including 10 YAC.
Pacheco was also targeted five times (20 percent target share), catching five passes for 21 yards, including 41 YAC.
Xavier Worthy caught 2 of 4 targets (16 percent target share) for 17 yards, adding 24 YAC. He ran a route on 69 percent of the dropbacks. Route participation was down from Week 1, but he still had a similar volume. With Marquise Brown out the rest of the regular season, buy low on Worthy after a down contest.
Jared Wiley caught his only target for 7 yards.
Travis Kelce saw limited involvement and caught one of three targets (12 percent target share) for 5 yards. There is no snap count limit here, folks (91 percent). He has two red-zone targets but zero TDs this season.
I’m not sure what other excuses we can make for Kelce. He has a great role and is seemingly healthy. The TDs will come attached to Mahomes, but the yardage/receptions numbers won’t move the needle. I’d sell after he posts a strong TD game.
Samaje Perine and Wanya Morris each caught their lone targets, with Morris scoring. Perine played 14 percent of the snaps.
Without Pacheco, I’d project for Steele to see work near the red zone and on early downs, with Perine also sprinkling with base work in addition to passing downs. Steele had two carries from inside the 10-yard line in Week 2.
I’d imagine Perine gets the initial crack (given his veteran presence), so I’d look to add him first.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire deserves some love in deeper formats but is currently on the NFI list. Perhaps an IR stash candidate you can sneakily add on waivers.
Kareem Hunt is also visiting the Chiefs. I wouldn’t be overly concerned about Hunt (similar to the Dalvin Cook signing in Dallas), so focus on Steele/Perine first.
However, in deeper leagues, Hunt needs to be stashed just in case.
In Week 3, the Chiefs will play the Falcons, followed by the Chargers and Saints, before a bye week in Week 6.
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Pittsburgh Steelers.
Buy Jaylen Warren & George Pickens.
Justin Fields managed the game efficiently, completing 13 of 20 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions, earning a passer rating of 97.3.
Per Next Gen Stats, Justin Fields faced the highest blitz rate of his career against the Broncos in Week 2 (64.3 percent).
When blitzed, Fields completed nine of his 13 pass attempts for 83 yards and a touchdown (+11.0 percent CPOE).
Najee Harris was the primary workhorse with 17 carries for 69 yards (4.1 YPC), including a long run of 11 yards. Despite strong red zone usage in the first two weeks, he has yet to find the end zone.
Jaylen Warren added 42 yards on nine carries (4.7 YPC), showing explosiveness with an 11-yard run.
Warren out-snapped Harris in Week 2 from 48 percent to 45 percent. Warren seemingly looks back to full health, making him a GREAT buy low target.
Warren was also efficient in the passing game, catching both of his two targets (10 percent target share) for 19 yards and gaining 20 YAC. Najee Harris caught one of two targets for 5 yards.
Justin Fields was also active on the ground, scrambling eight times for 27 yards (3.4 YPC) with a long run of 16 yards.
Cordarrelle Patterson had a limited role, carrying two times for 3 yards.
Pat Freiermuth was a reliable target, catching all four of his targets (20 percent target share) for 39 yards, including 13 YAC. His usage on routes remained high at 73 percent.
George Pickens caught two of four targets (20 percent target share) for 29 yards, contributing with 6 YAC.
At a quick glance, it’s easy to write this stat line as “Pat Surtain treatment. ” Not quite. Pickens had a 51-yard catch (with Surtain in coverage) wiped away due to a holding penalty away from the play.
He has another TD call nullified because of OPI on Van Jefferson. Fields also missed him deep twice. Buy low.
Van Jefferson caught two passes(10 percent target share) for 14 yards.
Calvin Austin III caught one of his two targets for 6 yards.
Darnell Washington scored on his lone catch from the 5-yard line.
The Steelers will face the Chargers, Colts, and Cowboys in their next three games.
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Denver Broncos.
Sell Javonte Williams.
The Denver Broncos struggled offensively in their Week 2 matchup. Bo Nix underperformed, completing 20 of 35 passes for 246 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Nix finished with a passer rating of 55.2.
Nix contributed on the ground with four carries for 25 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, including a long run of 13 yards. He leads the Broncos in rushing yards.
Javonte Williams was largely ineffective, rushing 11 times for 17 yards, averaging just 1.5 yards per carry. Two red-zone carries for not much production.
Tyler Badie had one carry for 16 yards, while Jaleel McLaughlin added 6 yards on three carries. McLaughlin (like Williams last week) had one touch in the second half.
Josh Reynolds was the most productive receiver, catching four of five targets (14 percent target share) for 93 yards, including 27 yards after the catch (YAC). He looked fantastic in his second game.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey hauled in four of five targets (14 percent target share) for 50 yards. He played the second-most WR snaps.
Javonte Williams was at least a factor in the passing game, catching all five of his targets (14.3 percent target share) for 48 yards with 48 YAC. He played 66 percent of the snaps.
Sell high. This Sean Payton backfield is impossible to project weekly. One week it’s Williams, the next it’s McLaughlin, etc.
Courtland Sutton caught one of four targets (11 percent target share) for 26 yards. Three of his targets were in the red zone.
Per Nex Gen Stats, Joey Porter Jr. lined up across from Courtland Sutton on 23 of his 35 routes (65.7 percent), holding Sutton to just one reception for 26 yards on a single target as the nearest defender in coverage.
Avoiding the Steelers CB1 is going to be something to monitor this season.
Greg Dulcich was targeted heavily but caught just 3 of 8 targets (23 percent target share and 31 percent target rate per route run) for 16 yards with 12 YAC. Still TE1, but horrible QB play.
Marvin Mims Jr. had one catch for 10 yards on two targets.
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Houston Texans.
Buy Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell | Sell Dalton Schultz | Add Cam Akers.
C. J. Stroud completed 23 of 36 passes for 260 yards, with one touchdown and 0 interceptions, finishing with a 94.7 passer rating and 7.2 yards per attempt. He struggled with accuracy, completing just 63.9 percent of his passes.
Cam Akers led the Texans’ backfield with seven carries for 32 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards. But he also lost a fumble at the goal line and had just one target. Dameon Pierce was inactive.
Joe Mixon struggled to find much running room, carrying nine times for 25 yards (2.8 YPC). He did leave the game at one point with an ankle injury.
Mixon contributed in the passing game, catching all 3 of his targets (8 percent target share) for 25 yards.
Tank Dell showed some versatility with three rushing attempts for 16 yards. He also came up just short on a long TD throw from Stroud.
Dare Ogunbowale managed two carries for 3 yards. Ogunbowale caught both of his two targets for 20 yards, providing some support in the passing game.
Nico Collins was the standout performer, catching 8 of 10 targets (28 percent target share) for 135 yards and a touchdown, averaging 16.9 yards per reception with 47 YAC. Dude is the unquestioned alpha in this offense. Buy high.
Fading Collins because of target competition is easily my biggest L in fantasy through two weeks. And not buying enough into his 2023 body of work. Luckily, I keep profiting from betting his weekly receiving prop OVERs.
Stefon Diggs had six targets (17 percent target share), catching 4 passes for 37 yards.
Both Diggs and Dell underwhelmed in Week 2, and have posted modest target rates (bottom-50) through two games.
However, given a matchup against the blitz-heavy Vikings in Week 3, I’d expect both guys to be more involved as Stroud’s quick outlet. If I have to pick one, I do prefer Diggs given his low average depth of target. Also, I prefer that my undersized WRs not take a bunch of handoffs.
Dalton Schultz was targeted three times (8 percent target share), catching 2 passes for 21 yards. He owns the second-lowest target rate per route run (10.9 percent) among TEs so far in 2024.
Cade Stover and Brevin Jordan had minimal involvement, catching one pass each, while Tank Dell was held to -3 receiving yards on his lone reception.
Houston will play the Vikings, Jaguars, and Bills over the next three weeks.
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Chicago Bears.
Buy D’Andre Swift & D.J. Moore | Add Khalil Herbert.
The Chicago Bears struggled offensively in Week 2, with Caleb Williams underperforming and no touchdowns scored in the game.
Williams completed 23 of 37 passes for 174 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 51. He completed 62.2 percent of his passes, an average of 4.7 yards per attempt.
It was the good/bad combination of Williams that we saw at USC. He’s an elite playmaker who gets into trouble when he holds onto the ball for too long. Per Next Gen Stats, Williams was most efficient as a passer when getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds in Week 2.
Williams finished 15 of 18 for 95 yards on quick passes (+4.2 percent CPOE) and 8 of 19 for 79 yards and two interceptions when holding for longer than 2.5 seconds (-11.2 percent CPOE). Houston blitzed the rookie QB on nearly 42 percent of his dropbacks (20), the highest rate in the DeMeco Ryans era per Next Gen Stats. Williams struggled against the blitz, completing only 3 of 12 attempts for 15 yards and an interception.
Caleb Williams contributed 44 rushing yards on five attempts, with an 8.8-yard average per carry, including a 24-yard run.
D’Andre Swift was held to just 18 rushing yards on 14 carries (1.3 yards per carry), with a long of 7 yards. He played 66 percent of the snaps.
The Texans’ run defense is picking up where it left off last season. Per Next Gen Stats, Houston allowed Bears running backs to gain more yards than expected on just 1 of 16 rushes (6.3 percent), their lowest rate of runs over expected since 2018. In 2023, the Texans allowed -270 RYOE to opposing running backs, the fewest in the NFL and the 3rd-fewest over the last six seasons.
Travis Homer and Khalil Herbert combined for nine rushing yards on three attempts. Herbert did score from the red zone (as the Bears’ preferred short-yardage back). Herbie only played 9 percent of the snaps with Swift’s RB1 role locked in.
D. J. Moore was the primary receiver, catching six of his 10 targets (27 percent target share) for 53 yards, including 51 YAC. With a 28 percent target share in two games, the big game will eventually come from the boom-or-bust Moore. I like his odds against the Colts, Rams, and Panthers to post some strong spiked weeks.
Rome Odunze was a big-play threat, catching two of five targets (13.5 percent target share) for 33 yards, averaging 16.5 yards per reception, with 15 YAC.
Moore played 99 percent of the snaps to Odunze’s 94 percent rate.
DeAndre Carter caught three of four targets (11 percent target share) for 32 yards, with 14 YAC. He had a bigger role with Keenan Allen (heel) inactive.
Cole Kmet had five targets (13.5 percent target share) and caught four passes for 27 yards. His snap share increased dramatically from the week prior, going from sub-50 percent to 77 percent. He also ran more routes than Gerald Everett.
D’Andre Swift was targeted five times (13.5 percent target share) and caught four passes for 14 yards.
Herbert caught two targets for 4 yards, and Gerald Everett had minimal involvement, catching two of three targets for one yard.
The Bears will face the Colts, Rams, and Panthers over the next three weeks.
The matchups alone give me some faith that the Bears offense can have a resurgence of sorts. Even though I don’t love Swift, the team is committed to him as the starter, and he should see a decent run with these upcoming favorable matchups. Be sure Khalil Herbert (Bears’ red zone back) isn’t available on any waiver wires.
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Philadelphia Eagles.
Hold DeVonta Smith | Add Britain Covey | Sell Jahan Dotson.
The Eagles offense had a mixed performance in Week 2, led by quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Jalen Hurts completed 23 of 30 passes for 183 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 88.6.
The Falcons did not pressure Hurts whatsoever.
Per Next Gen Stats, Hurts was pressured on just six of his 35 dropbacks (17.1 percent)-the 2nd-lowest pressure rate he’s faced in a game in his career.
Saquon Barkley was the workhorse back, rushing 22 times for 95 yards (4.3 YPC) with a long of 11 yards. Hurts added 85 rushing yards on 13 carries (6.5 YPC), with a long run of 23 yards.
Kenneth Gainwell had two carries for 6 yards.
DeVonta Smith led the team with 10 targets (33 percent target share), catching seven passes for 76 yards (10.9 YPC) with 19 yards after the catch (YAC). As long a A. J. Brown is sidelined Smith is a locked-and-loaded fantasy WR1.
Dallas Goedert had four targets (13 percent target share), catching all 4 for 38 yards (12.7 YPC) with 10 YAC-97 percent snap share.
Britain Covey was targeted six times (20 percent target share), catching six passes for 23 yards (3.8 YPC) with 13 YAC. He only played 32 percent of the snaps, but Hurts was looking his way often. Covey played ahead of both Johnny Wilson and Parris Campbell.
Jahan Dotson did what he did in Washington-played a ton (79 percent snap share) with nothing to show for it. He had one target on 26 routes.
Saquon Barkley added four receptions on five targets (17 percent target share) for 21 yards with 10 YAC. He also played a whopping 90 percent of the snaps.
Per Next Gen Stats, Barkley forced 10 missed tackles on 26 touches in his second game with the Eagles, finishing with over 100 scrimmage yards (95 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards) for the second time in as many games. His nine missed tackles forced are the most by any ball carrier in Week 2.
Philly will play at New Orleans in Week 3, followed by the Buccaneers and a bye week in Week 5. Expect A. J. Brown to be out with his hamstring injury until at least Week 6.
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Atlanta Falcons.
Buy Bijan Robinson | Sell Kyle Pitts | Add Darnell Mooney.
The Atlanta Falcons offense had an improved and solid performance behind quarterback Kirk Cousins in their Week 2 matchup, which ended up with a comeback victory.
Kirk Cousins completed 20 of 29 passes for 241 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, finishing with a 117.2 passer rating.
Per Next Gen Stats, Cousins was 5 of 6 for 70 yards and a touchdown on the final drive, completing +26.2 percent of his passes over expected (compared to -4.3 percent entering the drive). On the night, Cousins did not complete a single pass from outside the tackle box (0 for 1), but he moved around more in the pocket than in Week 1, averaging 5.0 yards per dropback against the Eagles (compared to a career-low 3.1 yards per dropback against the Steelers).
Bijan Robinson continued to impress, rushing 14 times for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) with a long run of 19 yards on a 75 percent snap rate. 6.9 yards per attempt is the second-best mark of his career.
No. 2 Tyler Allgeier was also effective. He had nine carries for 53 yards (5.9 YPC) and a long run of 15 yards (also had one catch for 12 yards). Four of his nine carries came inside the red zone. Two of Bijan’s red-zone touches came inside the 6-yard line, so no need to overly panic.
Per Next Gen Stats, Robinson took a majority of his carries from under-center formations, finishing with nine carries for 78 yards on under-center runs (77.8 percent success rate).
Robinson ran into a stacked box on just 7 percent of his rushing attempts. A Sean McVay special to get lighter defensive fronts, courtesy of heavy 11 personnel usage.
He hasn’t scored yet this season, but it’s so clear that he is the engine that runs this offense. The buying window is still there for Robinson, who could easily be the RB1 when the dust settles.
Darnell Mooney led the team with seven targets (24 percent target share), catching three passes for 88 yards, including a long of 41 yards for a TD and 35 YAC. However, Mooney was open for chunk gains early in the contest as well. 100 percent snap share and over 120 air yards. As Cousins gets more comfortable and back fully from the Achilles, I anticipate Mooney to be the biggest benefactor. His speed separates him from the rest of the Falcons’ receiving corps.
WR69 ADP? Blasphemy.
Drake London also had seven targets (24 percent target share), catching six passes for 54 yards, with 19 YAC and the game-winning TD at the end of the game. He wasn’t creating elite separation but using his great hands at the catch point-97 percent snap share.
Ray-Ray McCloud had five targets (17 percent target share), catching three passes for 42 yards. He’s not going away as part of this offense. He has a 100 percent snap share.
Bijan Robinson contributed to the passing game with four catches on five targets (17 percent target share) for 25 yards.
Kyle Pitts was targeted four times, catching three passes for 20 yards. Pitts scored in Week 1, while the other two Falcons’ top receivers scored in Week 2. He played 74 percent of the snaps, a decrease from Week 1’s 96 percent. His routes were also down at the expense of McCloud.
This is somewhat concerning, given that Pitts’ role could fluctuate weekly. Tight end is a wasteland, so it’s not so easy to just drop him. But perhaps the excitement about the Falcons’ offense could make him part of a sell-high deal.
All in all, this is what we expected from the Falcons offense heading into the season. They used more play action than in Week 1, with T. J. Watt not wreaking havoc in the Falcons’ backfield.
The Falcons’ final drive will be a foundational block on which the team can build on as they take on the Super Bowl champions in Week 3.
Atlanta will host the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 3, followed by the Saints, Buccaneers, and Panthers. Kenneth Walker was inactive and could be out for multiple weeks.