Steve Makinen’s predictions and picks for Week 12 in the NFL

The worst season record I’ve had in a number of NFL years, 45-50-2 ATS (47.3 percent), is the result of a miserable 3-6 record that was accentuated by some terrible, cruel selections in Week 11. Given that I’ve had a difficult four weeks, I wouldn’t blame you for being skeptical of my Week 12 choices. I’m sure that eventually I’ll be able to function normally again. Hopefully, this week will be the one. It appears to be a big week for home underdogs to show their mettle, and I have a few of those games in my lineup. In light of that, let’s examine my selections for Week 12 NFL best bets following my thorough analysis of this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report.

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Cleveland at Pittsburgh.

Thursday evening, 8:15 p.m. A. Amazon (ET).

After the Ravens upset last week, I can understand why some bettors might view this as a possible trap game or a disappointment for Pittsburgh. Nonetheless, teams tend to avoid looking ahead because these are fierce rivals battling it out. Also, it’s a game between two teams of distinctly different skill levels. In addition to the apparent disparities in winning and losing records, Pittsburgh’s effective strength rating is 5.4, while the Browns’ is -10.0. Put another way, the Steelers are outperforming the opposition by 15 to 4 points per game, which means they have a lot of work ahead of them regardless of the home field or the weather.

Normally, I would seriously consider a home dog lay at this location, but I simply believe that head coach Mike Tomlin’s team has too much momentum in their favor. In relation to this, since 2003, NFL teams that have won five straight games have gone 51-12 SU and 40-21-2 ATS (65 point 6%) as road favorites against division partners. Additionally, the home underdogs on TNF have had a difficult time, scoring only 15 points per game and going 5-20 SU and 8-17 ATS (32 percent) in their last 25 games. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, these hosts have gone 19-17 SU but 14-22 ATS (38.9 percent), reversing the long-standing trend that Thursday night home-field advantage is crucial in divisional games.

Lastly, home cooking hasn’t helped Thursday home teams, who have been a terrible bet over the past four seasons, going 25-32 SU and 20-36-1 ATS (35.7 percent), after they lost their most recent game. If it were a Sunday, I might give Cleveland a better chance, but I don’t think the Browns would score much offensively given possible weather concerns.

Our pick for Week 12’s NFL Best Bet is Pittsburgh -3.5 against Cleveland on TNF.

Carolina, Kansas City.

1:00 p.m. on Sunday. m. ET (CBS).

As a double-digit road favorite against a Carolina team that appears to be getting better after winning their two games before their bye week, Kansas City is in a difficult position after suffering its first defeat. Nevertheless, the victories came against the Giants, who were wildly overpriced in Germany, and the Saints, who were a complete mess at the time. Do I think the Chiefs will overlook this one? Definitely not, and I have a few theories that suggest the “unfamiliarity” of this matchup will work to their advantage.

Andy Reid, the head coach of Kansas City, is currently leading his team in non-conference games with a 14-3 SU and 12-4 ATS record. Second, Bryce Young of Carolina is 4-17 SU and 7-13 ATS in his last 20 starts as an underdog, and his team is playing 1-12 ATS and SU. PPG differentials >= +4.5 for elite teams. This system will be used because Reid’s team has now lost four straight ATS games: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 20-26 SU but have a 28-16-2 ATS record (63 point 6 percent) in their last 46 games against non-conference opponents.

Additionally, there is the problem of the Panthers losing to an AFC team at home after their bye week. 1) Take on home teams that just finished a bye week against opponents outside the conference. (Record: 27-13-2 ATS and 23-19 SU since 2015) 2) Take on home underdogs, fresh off a bye week. (Record: 58 point 9 percent, 40-18 SU, and 33-23-2 ATS since 1999). It’s time for KC to bounce back from a setback, and Carolina is the ideal opponent to do so against.

The Chiefs are my pick for the 11-point wager in Week 12 of the NFL.

Washington, Dallas.

1:00 p.m. on Sunday. A. FOX (ET).

Absolutely, I am aware that I continue to support Dallas, but the Cowboys’ performance is typical of NFL teams that have historically generated a profit. Being a divisional double-digit dog and fresh off a respectable offensive showing, this could be the moment they deliver for bettors. As an example, NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS games where they were outscored by 50 points or more are 49-26-1 ATS (65.3 percent) since 2007 but 26-50 SU.

Additionally, since 2006, NFL teams that have lost at least five games in a row have gone 11-64 SU and 48-26-1 ATS (64.9 percent) as double-digit road underdogs. They’ve had a lot of issues lately, including mental health issues, turnovers, and penalties. Even though Dallas is up 5-1 ATS against Washington, they can still give the Commanders a game here. Of course, DraftKings’ money is all over head coach Dan Quinn’s team, but the majority handle bettors have been terrible in the 2022–24 NFL divisional games, as they are only 91–117 ATS (43.8 percent).

After dropping the last four games to a 90-91 score differential, I don’t think Washington is deserving of double-digit favorite action because they have some issues of their own. Additionally, the Commanders’ ATS record is only 15-29 (34.1). Jayden Daniels and other rookie quarterbacks have only been 43-97 SU and 58-78-4 ATS (42.6 percent) against divisional opponents since 2017.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Dallas +10.5 is my pick.

At the NY Giants, Tampa Bay.

1 p.m. on Sunday. A. ET (CBS).

Since there were systems and trends raving about this Giants-Bucs game throughout the VSiN Analytics Report, this caught my attention as the analytical game of the week. There are so many that I actually hold two opinions about it: one regarding the total and one regarding the side. As of Thursday, the Bucs were favored by 81 percent of the money and the Under by 63 percent, according to DraftKings’ betting splits analysis. This majority group is only 130-139 ATS (48.3 percent), which is in line with the past two or more seasons when over 65 percent of the handle has been on one side of an ATS wager.

Since the middle of 2023, most handle bettors have been extremely astute when handling totals that are at or below that threshold (44 or less). In fact, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5 percent) since November 2023. Additionally, during the last two seasons, this majority group has been very accurate, going 70-52 ATS (57.4 percent) when 56 percent or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total. Here are a few of my favorites when it comes to team trends.

Todd Bowles of Tampa Bay is only 4-12 SU and 3-12 ATS when his team plays with more than seven days of rest since 2017.

Todd Bowles of Tampa Bay is the road favorite with a 12-2 record under the total run.

This is the NY GIANTS’ 11-7 SU and 14-3 ATS record after suffering an unexpected defeat in 2012.

As home underdogs since 2020, the NY GIANTS are 22-4 under the total.

The Giants were struggling going into their bye week, but they decided to replace Daniel Jones at quarterback with Tommy Devito. They might get a lift once more from it. NFL teams are generally 26-50 SU but 49-26-1 ATS (65.3 percent) since 2007 when they lose the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more during that time. When favored by three points or more, NFL teams that have lost at least three games in a row have gone 56-37 SU but 34-55-4 ATS (38.2 percent) since 2013. The Bucs also lost three straight before their bye week.

Speaking of byes, play against non-divisional conference opponents who are on the road after a bye week. One of the simplest post-bye systems is Play Under the Total, which involves road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 37-16 since ’21, 69.8 percent). (Record: 23-11 SU and 24-10 ATS since 2019).

As I mentioned earlier, there was a lot, but if you still need more, the Giants have a 9-3 SU (6-6 ATS) record in their last 12 home games, while the Buccaneers have a 4-0 Under the total in their last four post-bye week games overall and a 0-4 SU and ATS run in their post-bye week road games. According to the logic and the trends, Sunday’s game in New York will be close and low-scoring.

Our pick for the Week 12 NFL Best Bet is the NY Giants +6 and UNDER 41 against Tampa Bay.

Miami is home to New England.

Sunday at 1 p.m. M. ET (CBS).

Is Miami finally getting going? The Dolphins are coming off back-to-back victories and their first game of the season that saw them score more than thirty points. At 4-6, is it too late to have a serious playoff run? It might be, but a couple more victories would significantly alter that outlook. This is a good time for head coach Mike McDaniel’s team because Miami is 9-2-1 ATS at home against New England and 29-16 SU and 29-15 ATS lately. teams that haven’t won since 2019.

For this game, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has some good trends to take into account. First off, he is 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS against his team, which just won at home, and he is on a 12-4 SU and ATS surge. teams that have had subpar point differentials of less than -4 points per game since 2022. Conversely, Jerod Mayo and Drake Maye, the rookie quarterback and head coach, have performed a bit better than anyone could have predicted, but they are in a difficult position because rookie head coaches have had trouble in the revenge spot. They are just 28-45 SU and 34-38-1 ATS (47 point 2 percent) in the rematch against a team they lost to earlier in the season.

Even though rookie quarterbacks have had a difficult season overall, or since 2008, Weeks 10–15 have seen the most difficulties, as they are only 98–150 SU and 105–133–10 ATS (44–1 percent) during that week. In Week 10 EOY, they are only 33-96 SU and 54-73-2 ATS (42.5 percent) in their later-season road games. Further information on the game’s rematch angle: Miami is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 rematch games, including 7-2 in the last nine, and they won 15-10 in Foxboro in October. New England is ranked among the worst NFL road rematch teams of the recent past, with an unexpected 5-13 SU and 4-14 ATS record over their last 18 road attempts.

My pick for Week 12’s NFL Best Bet is Miami (-7.5) to maintain its mid-season run.

Denver in Las Vegas.

4.05 p.m. on Sunday. M. CBS/ET.

Since Denver has faced first-place teams in each of their last three games, I said I would be highlighting a few of the home underdog games, and this one may be my favorite. It may surprise you to learn that the Raiders have won eight straight ATS games when they have hosted Denver. Las Vegas is also 24-14 against the spread (63-point 2%). Divisional rivals since 2018.

Back in early November, these teams did play, and the Broncos won 34–18 with relative ease. There is cause for concern, as Denver has only gone 5-16 SU and 8-13 ATS in their last 21 rematch attempts, and 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing a team that they defeated the previous time. Recently, the team led by head coach Sean Payton has been playing well offensively, especially with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. However, it is common for rookie quarterbacks to have a rough season, especially when traveling against divisional opponents. They have performed the worst during Weeks 10–15, going 98–150 SU and 105–133-10 ATS (44–1 percent) during that time. Since 2015, they have only been 33-96 SU and 54-73-2 ATS (42point 5 percent) in their later season road games (Week 10 EOY) and 43-97 SU and 58-78-4 ATS (42point 6 percent) against divisional opponents.

NFL Best Bet for Week 12: I like this location for Las Vegas +6.

Philadelphia vs. LA Rams.

8:20 p.m. on Sunday. M. (NBC).

Even though I’ve been having trouble lately, this is the one area in NFL 2024 where I seem to be winning on Sunday nights. With 93 percent of the handle on Thursday supporting the Eagles -2.5, this week’s NFC playoff matchup is a popular public bet at DraftKings. As everyone knows, DK bettors have trouble with road favorites, heavy majorities, and more well-known stand-alone games.

Here are a few examples to show that: 1) In the last two or more seasons, only 130-139 ATS (48.3 percent) have had more than 65 percent of the handle on one side of an ATS wager. 2) Over the last two seasons, the majority handle and number of bets that have backed a team in an ATS wager in the more well-known, non-Sunday afternoon games are only 78-95 ATS (45.1 percent) and 76-94 ATS (44.7 percent), respectively. The Rams appear to be tough here as well, based on the Sunday night trends.

First off, since 2017, home underdogs have done well in Sunday night football, going 18-21 SU and 23-14-2 ATS (62point 2 percent). The Rams’ recent 28-22 victory over New England has also given the hosts a lot of momentum overall. On SNF, home teams that have lost their last 35 games are only 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2 percent), while those that have won are currently on a 23-5 SU and 18-10 ATS (64.3 percent) surge. Lastly, since 2019, the league’s top defensive teams—those giving up less than 19 points per game—have only performed 16–25 SU and 17–24 ATS (41–5%) against SNF’s worst defenses. At the moment, Philadelphia permits 17.9. I anticipate a solid showing from the Rams, who have fully recovered offensively.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: On Sunday night, with a strong chance of an upset, let’s go with the Rams +2.5.

LA Chargers at Baltimore.

Monday at 8:15 p.m. M. ET (ESPN). .

I have to assume that head coach Jim Harbaugh was not too happy with the Chargers’ play and how easily they gave up a significant halftime lead, even though I had the Chargers and they won on Sunday night. They gave up three second-half touchdowns to the Bengals. Los Angeles’ chances could have been considerably worse because Cincy missed several field goals and a few offensive late-game opportunities.

Having said that, I anticipate the Chargers to return to their strengths, which have been running the ball and playing better defense, which have been the main reasons for their success this season. I don’t find it surprising that a large portion of the money is going to the Over—89 percent as of Thursday—because the Harbaugh Bowl is a very interesting MNF tilt. The super majority on the handle for betting overs had to be 64 percent or higher, and this group did terribly in 2022–2024, finishing 121–153 (44.2%). This long-standing trend will continue after the Chargers’ victory last Sunday: the team is 61-29 under the total after winning by a wide margin for the first time since 2013.

Given that the last 24 MNF games with a home dog have seen Under the total go 18-4-2 (81.8 percent), games generating only 37.5 PPG, the MNF aspect of this game also suggests a lower scoring affair than most people would anticipate. The Chargers have a 11-2 Under streak as a team on Monday nights, and the last 10 MNF games with 48-plus totals have gone 7-3 Under. The team led by Jim Harbaugh keeps opponents 7 points and 3 points below their effective season averages. The Ravens receive 22 points if that occurs here. I don’t think the Chargers will win by seven points or more.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: In the MNF Harbaugh Bowl, we should wager UNDER 51.