The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 15 of the NFL season.
Much like every week, Gang Green should’ve won last week against a playoff-level team.
Carolina has the league’s 32-ranked rushing defense (DVOA) and is allowing 5 yards per carry, the most in the NFL.
LIONS -2.5 over Bills The marquee game of the week comes up for the Bills in enemy territory.
They don’t need to get into a spread offense matchup that the Eagles thrive in (the league’s best-passing defense per PFF).
Erich Richter of the Post offers his predictions and picks for the 15th week of the NFL season.
This Sunday.
Chiefs +4 to Browns.
The advanced stats despise this matchup because they despise Kansas City. With the Chiefs defense ranking in the bottom five in the NFL against the deep pass, Jameis Winston and the Browns have a strong offense that could see some success.
The K. A. allows a completion rate of 53.3 percent against deep passes, which is the fourth-worst in the NFL. The Giants, Panthers, and Packers have the lowest completion rates, at 60 percent, 54.8, and 53.8, respectively.
Winston loves deep balls, so he will be put to the test a lot against a soft secondary.
Furthermore, PFF still ranks Cleveland’s defense as having the third-best pass rush.
Supporting the Chiefs is too challenging at the moment because they are getting away with so much. Cleveland triumphs handily.
Ravens +16 to GIANTS.
This is the largest spread in the NFL this season at 16 points, but it could be another Tommy Cutlets show. Nobody is anticipating an unexpected victory, and the Giants most likely don’t even desire one.
but Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Malik Nabers. possess sufficient skill to limit this to two points. They’re playing a strong defense without Dexter Lawrence.
It has a rating of No. 12 based on Pro Football Focus.
Jets over Jaguars, -3 points, 5.
I draw the line at disrespecting the Jets at this point.
Gang Green should have defeated a playoff-caliber team last week, as they do every week. The same cannot be said for the Jaguars, who have the worst defense in the league based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and are starting Mac Jones at quarterback.
Finally, the Jets win, and they easily cover this one.
Now that Aaron Rodgers is acting disrespectfully, you can finally purchase a Jets jersey.
TITANS OVER BENGAL, +5.
The Titans must be discovered by the books at some point, don’t they?
With a terrible 2-11 record against the spread, which is somehow worse than their 3-10 record overall, Tennessee is the worst team in the league.
According to DVOA, the Titans have the 31st-ranked offense and the 15th-best defense, so theoretically, this matchup looks good against the Bengals.
In theory, that would be equal because, according to DVOA, the Bengals have the second-worst defense in the league.
Their defense, which has given up 6 points 8 yards per play in their last three games—by far the worst in the NFL—isn’t exactly getting any better, either.
Last week, in a game that they could have easily lost, they made Cooper Rush look capable.
Over SAINTS, commanders are -7.5.
Marshon Lattimore plays against his old team in his Commanders debut.
According to the DVOA, New Orleans has the second-worst run defense and starts Jake Haener at quarterback, which should be a nightmare.
It’s hard to imagine how the Saints manage to stay this close. Jayden Daniels explodes.
OVER PANTHERS, COWBOYS +3.
Dallas still has enough people who believe they shouldn’t be the Panthers’ underdogs.
Blue-chip players Micah Parsons, Rico Dowdle, and CeeDee Lamb are all deserving underdogs in this matchup.
Carolina is giving up the most yards per carry in the NFL at five, and their rushing defense is ranked 32st in the league (DVOA).
The Texans defeated the Dolphins 3-0.
Miami is no longer what it once was, and they can’t handle this matchup.
With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as their quick receivers, the Dolphins are a team that thrives on short passes.
In short passing offenses, the Texans thrive. On short passes (less than seven air yards), they permit the NFL’s lowest completion percentage.
Since Tua Tagovailoa joined the offense, Miami has thrown the fifth-most short passes in the NFL.
Tagovailoa should have some trouble in this one because Houston also records the second-highest number of interceptions on short passes.
BRONCOS defeats Colts -4.
The Broncos’ offensive line is the best in the NFL.
They don’t have it. 70% of passes are blocked.
At Mile High, Indianapolis lacks the skill on both sides of the ball to win or cover this match.
On DVOA, Indianapolis’ offense is ranked 22nd. Instead of wasting your money on the Colts, invest in Denver.
LIONS vs. Bills, -2 point 5.
The Bills’ week’s biggest game takes place in hostile territory.
Despite some kinks in their armor, both teams have aspirations to win the Super Bowl.
Detroit plays ball control on the Bills, and the superior offensive line and defense should win this game.
Josh Allen will eventually have to lose.
Steelers +5 over the Eagles.
Even though the on-field product is good, Philadelphia is in utter chaos behind the scenes.
Hard-hitting and fiercely contested, the in-state rivalry game fits the Steelers’ formula perfectly.
The Eagles are the league’s best-passing defense according to PFF, so they don’t have to play a spread offense matchup.
In order to win, they should be happy to engage in a slugfest and avoid making any mistakes.
CARDINALS +6 to Patriots.
In this one, Jerod Mayo is most likely coaching for his job, especially given the challenging end-of-season schedule.
The defensive performance of New England has been getting better; they currently have the seventh-best YPC allowed figure in the NFL (3.9).
With 5.4 YPP in their last three games, their offense, which has struggled this season (second-worst yards per play in the NFL, 4.7), is getting better.
Don’t expect Kyler Murray to have a spectacular game this weekend either, as the Patriots are also giving up the fourth-fewest yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks.
CHARGERS defeat Buccaneers -3.
Coaches make their living here, despite the serious injuries to both teams. Without playmakers J., Jim Harbaugh should have defeated the Chiefs last week, and he almost did. The K. Dobbins and McConkey, Ladd.
This week, neither seems to be moving in a positive direction, but don’t worry.
Bucky Irving, a running back, is also probably out for the Buccaneers this week. The Chargers have the seventh-best defense in terms of yards per play allowed and DVOA, so support the superior defense.
SEAHAWKS -2 points 5 against the Packers.
Although running the ball has been difficult for Seattle this season, the development of Jaxon Smith-Njigba has made their passing offense one of the best in the league.
Not only is this matchup not ideal, but the Packers’ injuries are starting to cause concern.
Seattle’s defense is actually rated higher in terms of DVOA for the season, and their 7 yards per pass attempt allowed puts them in the bottom half of the league and gets worse every week.
Putting money on the NFL draft?
Check out our comprehensive guide to NFL betting.
Visit the top NFL betting websites.
Get the bonus code for BetMGM below.
Tuesday.
BEARS vs Vikings +7.
Supporting a team that was humiliated in the first game under their interim coach is never simple.
But when they travel to Minnesota to play a formidable defense, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams should be up to the challenge.
In the first game, which the Bears should have won, Williams threw for two touchdowns and 340 yards. This is too many points—seven.
Falcons versus Raiders, -4.
It’s time to draw the line in the sand again.
It all comes down to Kirk Cousins’ apparent regression, which at this point may actually be regression.
In any case, the Falcons, who have the third-best offense according to PFF, are superior to the Raiders in every position.
Desmond Ridder, who was the NFL’s worst quarterback the previous season, is comparable to that, according to PFF. Sell the revenge game element and place your money on the Falcons, who still have a lot to gain.
6-5-1 last week.
