2025 NFL playoff bracket prediction and picks: Jayden Daniels ends Lions’ magical season; Rams stun Eagles

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The reason you don’t want to overthink things in the divisional round is because the home team usually dominates.
NFL divisional round picks (4) Houston (11-7) at (1) Kansas City (15-2) 4:30 p.m.
ET (ESPN/ABC) | Stream: fubo Houston, we have a problem, and that problem is the divisional round of the playoffs.
The pick: Commanders 34-31 over Lions Record picking Commanders games this season: 11-7 Record picking Lions games this season: 13-4 (4) Rams (11-7) at (2) Philadelphia (15-3) 3 p.m.
The pick: Rams 20-17 over Eagles Record picking Rams games this season: 11-7 Record picking Eagles games this season: 10-8 Record picking Rams-Eagles games this season: 0-1 (3) Baltimore (13-5) at (2) Buffalo (14-4) 6:30 p.m.

POSITIVE

I’m beginning to believe that I might need to purchase a copy of A after watching the first round of the playoffs. J. Prior to selecting my divisional round picks, I read Brown’s book.

“Inner Excellence” is what Brown was reading, and as far as I’m concerned, no one would use the word “Excellence” to describe my wild card selections. Despite going 1-5 against the spread, I did go 4-2 straight up. Even if I had just listened to my 4-year-old and only selected the Ravens and Eagles to cover in the wild-card round, it would have been preferable to what I did because she enjoys birds. I might start selecting only bird teams in related news.

Not overanalyzing the divisional round selection process is crucial, which could be problematic for me as I tend to overanalyze everything. When I finally decided what I wanted for lunch yesterday, it was time for dinner, and I had spent four hours trying to decide what I would have for lunch.

The home team typically dominates the divisional round, so you don’t want to overthink things. Given that home teams have gone 29-11 over the last ten years, I should probably pick at least one upset this week because we’re getting about one upset annually on average.

I should definitely pick against Buffalo because home teams have gone 6-2 over the last two years, and the Bills have lost both of those games. Detroit (-8.5) and Kansas City (-8) appear to be in the lead because teams that are favored by a touchdown or more in the divisional round have gone 16-3 in a row over the last ten years.

Let’s get to the picks and see if I’m going to pick against Buffalo, pick an upset, or think the Chiefs and Lions will both win.

NFL divisional-round selections.

Houston (11-2) at Kansas City (15-2) (4).

4:30 p.m. A. Fubo is the stream for ET (ESPN/ABC).

The divisional round of the playoffs is our issue, Houston. Houston has never advanced past this stage, so Texans fans may not be aware that there are additional playoff rounds following the divisional round.

Since their founding in 2002, the Texans have participated in five divisional round games and have a 0–5 record. The only NFL team that has never advanced to a conference championship game is this one. Once, in 2019, the Texans came very close to winning in the divisional round after jumping out to a 24-0 lead that they somehow choked away. However, the twist is that they will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs, who defeated them in 2019.

This feels like a two-for-one situation because the Texans have neither won a divisional round game nor a road playoff game. However, they will need to find a stone large enough to defeat the Chiefs, which I doubt is possible.

In fact, these two teams faced off in a game back in Week 16 where C. J. With two interceptions, Stroud had one of his worst games of the season. The Texans only lost by a single score (27-19) in spite of Stroud’s difficulties, and they were competitive with the Chiefs until Tank Dell injured his knee early in the third quarter. In fewer than two and a half quarters of play prior to the injury, the Texans amassed 16 points and 273 yards. The Texans managed just 38 yards in the last quarter and a half following the injury.

After three weeks, they’ve gradually improved each week as they’ve adapted their offense to life without Dell. Of course, a strong offensive performance by the Texans won’t likely be enough to win; if they want to stop Patrick Mahomes, their defense will also need to play like a magician.

Throughout his career, Mahomes has been particularly unstoppable against the Texans, in addition to being unstoppable in the playoffs. Mahomes has gone 4-1 against Houston in five games, throwing 14 touchdown passes against just one interception.

With 49 sacks this season, the Texans defense tied for fourth place in the NFL, and if they can maintain pressure on Mahomes throughout the game, they should have a chance to win. Mahomes was sacked three or more times in just six games this season, and even though the Chiefs won those six games by an average of only 3 points to 7 points, they went 6-0 overall.

The Texans will play in the AFC Championship game at some point, but I don’t think today will be that day. Although I believe Houston can stay close, I can’t bet against Patrick Mahomes in the postseason.

Pick: Chiefs defeat Texans 23–20.

Picking Texans games this season has a 13-5 record.

This season, the Chiefs have a 15-2 record in game picking.

This season’s record for picking Texans-Chiefs games is 1-0.

(1) Detroit (15-2) at (6) Washington (13-5).

8. M. Stream: fubo ET (Fox).

Washington, welcome to the divisional round of the playoffs! I don’t want to say that Dan Snyder was preventing the Commanders from moving forward, but he sold the team in July 2023, and now, just 18 months later, they’re in the divisional round for the first time in 19 years. I’ll be honest: Dan Snyder was preventing them from moving forward.

Since Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator for the Lions, effectively declined the Commanders coaching position because he didn’t like Josh Harris and the new ownership group, I have to assume that Harris would absolutely love to defeat Detroit.

I’m curious about what transpired during the interview because both sides expressed disapproval of the other. Snyder would have already made the complete video interview public if he still owned the team.

In any case, Ben Johnson may be the target of the joke because Dan Quinn was hired by the Commanders and he now has them in the divisional round for the first time in almost twenty years.

I’m only bringing this up because the Commanders are the only team crashing the divisional round this year; I’m also reminding you to never leave a fellow crasher behind. The last time the Commanders made it this far was in 2005, the same year that “Wedding Crashers” came out. Only Washington, a lower-seeded team, emerged victorious in the wild-card round.

This is the game for you if you enjoy offensive fireworks. During the regular season, both teams averaged 33 points per game, with Detroit scoring 33 points and Washington scoring 28 points. My intention is probably to convey that there is a fifty percent chance that this game will end with a score of 71-68. Both teams are playing their best football of the year, and their offenses are blazing right now.

Normally, I would pick against a rookie quarterback who is traveling in the divisional round, but Jayden Daniels isn’t playing like a typical rookie quarterback, so I’m not sure I can do that in this case. In a road playoff victory, he became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw at least two touchdown passes during the wild-card round.

After Daniels’ incredible play, he now faces the Lions defense, which gave up the third-most passing yards in the NFL in 2024. The Commanders should be able to stay in the game if it becomes a shootout because Washington’s offense is strong enough to exploit the Lions’ poor defense.

Running the ball . might be the best course of action for the Lions if they wish to avoid an upset bid. each and every play. The Lions finished sixth in the NFL in terms of average yards gained on the ground this season (146,04), and they will face a Commanders defense that finished 30th in terms of stopping the run, allowing an average of 137,05 yards per game.

Daniels will not be on the field if the Lions run the ball well, which will eat up time.

I’ll just say that this isn’t the game for you if you enjoy watching punts. This season, both the Lions and Commanders played three games without any punts or turnovers. Because they always go for it on fourth down, these teams don’t punt very often. The Lions attempted 22 fourth-down conversions this season, which ranked fourth, while the Commanders attempted 23, which tied for the second-highest total in the NFL. The Commanders converted 82.1 percent of their fourth downs, whereas the Lions only converted 66.7% to make the difference. The Commanders are capable of defeating the Lions in their own arena.

Every game is coached by Dan Quinn as if he were going to blow a 28-3 Super Bowl lead. Given that he now coaches with his pants on fire—going for it on fourth down and making audacious decisions—I believe that his Super Bowl LI loss may have caused him to develop PTSD. He won’t lose a game because he was overly cautious. I never thought I’d say in front of Dan Campbell on an NFL sideline that he might be the most insane NFL coach named Dan.

I’m going to go all out and say that Washington will BEAT THE LIONS to return to the NFC title game for the first time in thirty-three years because they haven’t advanced to the game since 1991, and they faced the Lions in that game.

The pick: Commanders defeat Lions 34–31.

This season’s record for picking Commanders games is 11–7.

This season’s record for Lions game predictions is 13–4.

Philadelphia (15-3) at the Rams (11-7) (4).

3. M. ET (NBC) | Fubo stream.

For nearly everyone who has ever participated in the wild-card round, the Rams were forced to play in the dreaded Monday night game. It seems like I should give up on this pick right now and just go with the Eagles because three teams have won on Monday in the wild-card round over the last two years, and they have combined to go 0–3 in the divisional round.

Given their prior success, the Rams are undoubtedly the team most capable of breaking the Monday night curse. In 2021, the Rams emerged victorious from the Monday night wild-card game, culminating in their victory in Super Bowl LVI.

They must defeat the Eagles first this time if they want to advance to the Super Bowl, and in order to do so, they must figure out how to tackle Saquon Barkley. You can experience what it’s like to try to tackle Saquon Barkley by attempting to tackle a car in your neighborhood right now. I really don’t want CBS Sports sued, so don’t do that. STAY AWAY FROM CARS. When these two teams faced off in Week 12, the Rams appeared to be attempting to tackle a car each time Barkley touched the ball, which is the only reason I brought that up. In a game where the Eagles ran for 314 yards, he ran for a franchise-record 255 yards, largely because they were unable to tackle him.

The Eagles will lose if Barkley ever approaches that figure again. If Barkley reaches close to 200, the Eagles will most likely win, but he may struggle to score a significant amount against the Rams defense this time around because they have improved since Week 12. Since the Eagles’ defeat, the Rams have only given up 104 points per game in rushing yards, suggesting that they have been motivated by that game.

Currently, the Rams defense is playing at a whole new level. They have held four of their last five opponents to SINGLE-DIGIT points, and the only time a team scored more than 10 points was during Week 18, when the Rams rested their starting lineup.

On defense, the Eagles have performed better than the Rams. Throughout the regular season, they allowed the fewest passing yards, the fewest yards per game, and the second-fewest points per game, demonstrating that they are playing at a totally different level than the rest of the field. Everybody they encounter is beaten. The Rams, who finished just 1-5 this season in games where Stafford was fired at least three times, will have a difficult day if they can target Matthew Stafford. This year, the Eagles were 6-0 when they recorded three or more sacks, including five sacks of Stafford in Week 12.

Basically, it comes down to which offense I trust more because both defenses are playing so well, and at the moment, that’s the Rams. The Rams might have trouble in the cold, but Sunday’s high of 40 degrees is predicted for Philadelphia, which is as close to tropical weather as it gets there in January.

Rams 20-17 Eagles is the pick.

This season, the record for picking Rams games is 11-7.

This season’s record for picking Eagles games is 10–8.

Record for this season’s Rams-Eagles game picking: 0-1.

(3) Buffalo (14–4) vs. Baltimore (13-5).

At 6:30 p.m. M. ET (CBS) | Paramount+ stream.

The NFL should, in my opinion, just burn all of the votes this year and award the MVP award to the winning quarterback in this game, even though the winner won’t be revealed until the week of the Super Bowl. Nothing needs to be decided by a vote; let’s just let the players decide this.

The quarterback battle we’ve all been anticipating is happening in this game: Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen with an AFC championship game berth at stake.

Both quarterbacks are coming off historic seasons: Allen became the first quarterback in NFL history to have at least 25 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns, and fewer than 10 interceptions in a season, while Jackson became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 40 or more touchdown passes with five or fewer interceptions.

Jackson reached 602 rushing yards during the wild-card round on Saturday, setting the NFL career postseason record for a quarterback. However, Allen beat him on Sunday, reaching 609, so the record was only in place for less than 24 hours.

I’m just going to say that both quarterbacks are playing so well that they balance each other out.

This one seems like it will come down to which defense performs better, and Baltimore’s defense is currently the best in the NFL. The Ravens have played five games since the Week 14 bye and have given up an average of just 11 points per game. In Week 17, they held the Texans offense to zero points (Houston scored two points in the game, but that was on a safety).

Not to mention that Buffalo’s lowest scoring total of the season was 10 points in Week 4, which was also held to by this Ravens defense. The game got so out of control that the Bills benched Allen in the fourth quarter in order to raise Mitch Trubisky, the human white flag. Trubisky’s inclusion indicates that you have formally given up. Allen only received 14 suspensions in the regular season, three of which occurred during that particular game.

The defense should benefit from the Bills’ multiple injured players from the first meeting, including CB Taron Johnson, LB Terrel Bernard, and LB Matt Milano. This is good news for the Bills, as they will need all the assistance they can get in their attempt to tackle Derrick Henry. After rushing for 199 yards in the first meeting, I thought the Ravens running back would have another outstanding performance. You can’t really prepare for Henry unless you spend the entire week attempting to tackle a plow truck.

Since his mother has been the driving force behind Baltimore’s late-season run, Lamar should give his mother the MVP award if he wins it. Following a Week 13 loss to the Eagles, Lamar’s mother yelled at him, and Jackson and the Ravens have not lost since. Just take a look at the man in the video below; he is determined not to receive another reprimand from his mother.

By swearing at her son, Lamar’s mother might have just ignited a Ravens Super Bowl run. What a wonderful moment to live.

The Bills have lost BOTH of the divisional round games since the 2022 season began, and I hate to add insult to injury, but I’m feeling like Buffalo will lose at home for the third time in a row.

The pick: Ravens defeat Bills 34-27.

Picking the Ravens this season has a 10-8 record.

Picking the Bills this season has an 11-7 record.

This season, the Ravens-Bills record for picking games is 1-0.

the previous week.

Best pick: Since I embarrassed myself in the wild-card round, there isn’t a best pick this week. The ugly part was that I went 1-5 against the spread, not that I went 4-2 straight up. Congratulations! You can now retire and relocate to Barbados if you bet against my predictions. Kindly send me a postcard. Nevertheless, I want to express my gratitude to the Rams for keeping me from getting goosebumps. I started Monday night at 0-5 and would have dropped to 0-6 if the Vikings had prevailed, but the Rams defense prevented that from happening by sacking Sam Darnold nine times.

The worst choice I made was last week, when I thought that the Chargers would finally defeat the Chargers in the playoffs. The joke is on me, though, because that didn’t happen. I had assumed that Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert would be immune to Chargering, but instead they produced what may be the worst case of Chargering ever recorded by scientists. The four interceptions Herbert threw in the wild-card round were more than he had in the entire regular season. The next time the Chargers qualify for the playoffs, I will never again pick them to win a postseason game. Could someone please remind them that I wrote this?

picks the record.

4-2, straight up in the wild-card round.

SU’s overall playoff record: 4-2.

One to five against the spread in the wild-card round.

ATS overall in the playoffs: 1–5.

final regular-season record for 2024.

180-92, straight up.

140-126-6 against the spread.

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