Six big questions about the 2025 NBA Finals: Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers enter the Thunderdome

A juggernaut is the Oklahoma City Thunder. They finished the regular season with the greatest point differential in NBA history, winning 68 games. They have already won seven playoff games by the same margin (and five by 25 or more), and they won 40 of those games by 15 points or more, setting another new record. At their best, they appear to have sneaked a sixth defender onto the court. They made the Minnesota Timberwolves, a great, well-coached team in their own right, look completely inept in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals last Wednesday, and it wasn’t even all that shocking. The Thunder had ended their second-round series in the same manner ten days earlier: the Denver Nuggets struggled to even get the ball to Nikola Jokić in Game 7.

The idea that Oklahoma City had set itself apart from other young, talented teams by rushing straight past the learning-from-failure phase, which is typically a part of the trajectory, was refuted on Sunday by guard Cason Wallace. “In my opinion, we didn’t skip any steps,” Wallace stated. He then went into detail about the challenges the Thunder had faced this season, including “Chet [Holmgren] going down.”. At one point, there were no bigs. Players must switch up their roles. losing the playoffs by a large margin. attending Game 7. “..”.

But inadvertently, Wallace made OKC seem like a historical outlier. Despite starting a 6-foot-5 wing (Jalen Williams) at center for a while and having both of its starting bigs (Isaiah Hartenstein and Holmgren, the two-headed monster) available at the same time for less than a quarter of the regular season, this team has won 80 games on their way to the Finals.

Rick Carlisle, coach of the Indiana Pacers, stated, “We understand the magnitude of the opponent,” following his team’s Saturday Finals ticket punch. Throughout the entire year, Oklahoma City has been in control. Carlisle insisted that the word be capitalized. ).

After Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was named MVP, it would have been a devastating letdown if the Thunder had not advanced to the NBA Finals this season. However, the Pacers, who upset the No. 1 seed and won 50 games during the regular season, cannot achieve the same feat. defeated the New York Knicks in six games in the Eastern Conference finals after defeating the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in five games in the second round. It is a remarkable accomplishment that Indiana has advanced this far, especially given how slowly the season began.

Although the Pacers are huge underdogs (+490 to win the series at Caesars Sportsbook), they will go into the Finals with the assurance of a team that has exceeded all outside expectations. They have the same level of faith in their strategy and style of play as any other team in the league.

Mark Daigneault, the coach of Oklahoma City, stated on Sunday that both teams are entering the Finals with the same psychological profile at this point, where they are more connected than they were at the start of the playoffs. “..”.

Indiana and Oklahoma City have a lot in common. According to Inpredictable, despite all the talk about the Pacers (aptly) playing with speed, the Thunder were marginally faster offensively during the regular season and the first three playoff rounds. The star guards on both teams might have been dubbed “Slim Reaper” if Kevin Durant hadn’t been given the moniker by a Redditor in 2014. As Pacers center Myles Turner stated on Saturday, both teams “use the power of friendship” and are deep as well. Turner was being at least somewhat serious when he said it, despite his laughter. Players are given plenty of latitude by Carlisle and Daigneault, but neither team is careless with the ball. They both have that instantly identifiable more-than-the-sum-of-their-parts vibe, which is to be expected of teams that have advanced this far.

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The Thunder’s swarming, terrifying defense—possibly the best I’ve ever seen—is their greatest advantage. In the playoffs, the Pacers’ superior, more fluid halfcourt offense has given them a significant edge. In the regular season, this wasn’t the case (OKC was ranked No. Indiana No. 2 in the halfcourt. 4, according to Cleaning The Glass), so it might be the case that their opponents are completely different. However, you probably believe there is more to this than that if you believe the Pacers can make it interesting.

Alright, that takes care of the big-picture issues. Let’s get specific now, sweetie. The following six queries pertain to the 2025 NBA Finals.

1. . Can Indy stay steady against these turnover-forcing maniacs?

Due to Tyrese Haliburton’s unique (and, to be honest, odd) genius, Indiana has accomplished an almost unachievable feat: it is a low-turnover team that passes the ball wildly, moves constantly, and wants to run whenever it can.

Carlisle has emphasized the value of winning the possession game throughout the season. The Pacers have had to dominate the turnover battle because they are not a team that is known for having great rebounding skills. They must continue to be strong in order to have a chance against the Thunder.

In an interview with ESPN on Monday, Carlisle stated, “We have to focus on the things that have helped us succeed, which are hard, fast, selfless, solid play.”. “We also need to perform well in the possession areas. “.

Indiana’s dedication to the bit has defined it. It is challenging to play so frantically on offense and to constantly pressure opposing ballhandlers. Though they trust their bench, the Pacers always think they’ll be more composed than you in tense situations and that they’ll be more rested than you when it counts.

“Their defensive philosophy is very much aligned with their offensive philosophy, so it creates a certain air to the game when you play against them that is difficult to play against,” Daigneault said Sunday, adding that Indiana is an “incredibly challenging opponent that stays in character in all circumstances. “,”.

But this situation will put the Pacers to the ultimate test. Oklahoma City and Indiana are very similar in many significant ways, and the Thunder virtually never lose the turnover battle. Cleaning the Glass says.

In terms of offensive efficiency, Oklahoma City and Indiana were identical in the regular season, but the Thunder have surpassed that in the postseason.

During the regular season, only the Pacers gave up fewer transition opportunities than the Thunder.

During the regular season, Oklahoma City had the lowest turnover rate in the league. The third lowest was Indiana.

In the playoffs, the turnover rates of both teams have somewhat decreased.

The Thunder force more turnovers than any other NBA team, and Indiana is only marginally better than average in this regard. This is the main, obvious difference in this situation. Three of the best point-of-attack defenders in the league are Wallace, Lu Dort, and Alex Caruso. Off-ball defenders Caruso and Williams are among the most disruptive in the league. The combined length, athleticism, and physicality of Oklahoma City is overwhelming.

For the Pacers, this might be a shock to the system, particularly early in the series. It remains to be seen if they can contend with a defense like this and play like the Pacers.

2. What happens if Indiana doesn’t go cold while Oklahoma does?

What do you think would happen in this series if John Haliburton told you that he had witnessed his son win Finals MVP and lead the Pacers to the championship (against a Thunder team that had not suffered any injuries) while riding in a time-traveling caravan?

Oklahoma City’s 3-point shooting comes to mind right away, though I don’t want to get all make-or-miss league on you. The Thunder’s 3-point shooting percentage in the playoffs is 33.5%, according to Cleaning the Glass, which eliminates garbage time and heaves. The only teams that have been less accurate are the long-gone Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic. ) And on catch-and-shoot 3s in particular — the kind of shots Indiana might be willing to surrender to role players in order to protect the paint — OKC has shot 34.2 percent in the playoffs, which ranks 12th among the 16 teams that qualified, according to NBA . com.

The Thunder aren’t inherently weak at shooting. They were in the top five in terms of accuracy from long range (and specifically on catch-and-shoot threes) on a respectable volume during the regular season. In the playoff crucible, however, almost every player in the rotation—aside from Caruso—has shot noticeably worse, which is reminiscent of what transpired against the Dallas Mavericks in the second round last season. Because both teams were selling out to preserve the paint, their seven-game series against the Nuggets was particularly intriguing.

Indiana will probably mix in some zone, just like Denver did. At the other end, I think the Pacers will increase the volume of their 3-point shooting. Threes are usually available against Oklahoma City, especially when it goes double-big, and they require variation.

The fact that Indiana is the only team to shoot over 40 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs is one of the reasons it is here. It has shot 43.9% on three-pointers in particular, and all players in the rotation—aside from Obi Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin—have been noticeably more accurate in the playoffs than during the regular season.

In one sense, the Thunder haven’t yet encountered a playoff opponent that starts five 3-point shooters who are actually a threat. However, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if a large number of those shooters are less steady in this series, with OKC flying everywhere. I wonder, too, how bold Daigneault will be, matchup-wise. In the past, he has put bigs on perimeter players without hesitation, and he did so against the Pacers. The Thunder won’t always respect them based on their individual shooting percentages.

3. How can the Pacers defeat Oklahoma City?

What if John Haliburton emerged from his time-traveling caravan and confided in you that he couldn’t bear to discuss the way his son’s team was swept in the Finals?

In my opinion, Indiana’s unrestricted offensive strategy finally caught up to its opponent. Really, there’s no shame in that. The Thunder offer the Pacers no small, overmatched guards or clumsy, slow-footed bigs to pick on.

Harteinstein remarked on Sunday, “I believe our defense is unique because we don’t have any weak links.”. “Normally, a team can, in my opinion, go out and sort of hunt one player. That’s not really that much that we have. “.

There will never be two weak defenders on the floor, so Indiana won’t be able to run set plays that put them in the same action. The alternative is for Indiana to continuously take advantage of minor advantages. Although Holmgren and Hartenstein are great defenders, the Pacers must see if the Thunder are willing to A) switch them to Haliburton and B) start them in rotation when they are on the court together. Haliburton must punish that coverage with pull-up threes and floaters until their bigs drop against Haliburton’s pick-and-rolls.

According to Daigneault, “He stirs the drink,” on Sunday. “He’s got an unbelievable ability to score, which I think creates a lot of the passing. You remember guys like that, like [Steve] Nash.

Pascal Siakam, who hoisted the Larry Bird Trophy on Saturday as MVP of the East finals, needs to be a constant threat, too. This matchup calls for a heavier dose of inverted pick-and-rolls with Siakam handling the ball and whoever Gilgeous-Alexander (or Isaiah Joe or Aaron Wiggins) serving as the screen-setter. None of those guys are bad defenders, but they’re probably too small for Siakam. Particularly when Siakam is being defended by Hartenstein or Holmgren, this could be a good way to get to the free-throw line. Based on the regular-season numbers, free-throw rate is one of the few edges Indiana has on both ends of the court.

There will be all sorts of smaller battles, too. When the Thunder put a wing on Turner, can the Pacers consistently take advantage of it? Same thing when they put a big on backup point guard T. J. McConnell. Indiana is not a strong offensive rebounding team, but it should consider crashing the glass harder than usual when Holmgren is OKC’s lone big. Indiana needs every extra possession it can get.

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4. Will SGA use the Pacers’ pressure against them?

The Pacers aren’t stacked with elite defenders, but they’ve evolved into a pretty good defensive team in part because of their unrelenting ball pressure. Andrew Nembhard is coming off a masterful individual performance against Jalen Brunson in the clincher against New York, and now they’re going to need him to pester the one star in the league who is even shiftier.

Here’s the tricky part: Pressure defense isn’t necessarily the smartest strategy against Gilgeous-Alexander. In the Western Conference finals, Minnesota had to dial it back after the first two games of the series because he was coming off high pick-and-rolls with so much empty space in front of him. By lowering their pick-up point, the Wolves were able to show him more of a crowd.

I don’t expect Indiana to abandon its defensive identity entirely. It can’t afford to foul Gilgeous-Alexander on the perimeter, though, and it has to make sure he sees bodies when he tries to get downhill. Gilgeous-Alexander is difficult enough to deal with in tight spaces, so the Pacers need to be careful not to give him a long runway.

5. How will OKC shift shapes?

If the Thunder decide to start Caruso instead of Hartenstein in Game 1, I won’t be shocked. They started Holmgren at the 5 a few times in the regular season when both bigs were healthy, most notably against the Boston Celtics in March, and they’ve started four second halves this way in the playoffs. If the goal is to make Indiana as uncomfortable as possible from the jump, getting Caruso on the court is the move.

The beauty of this iteration of Oklahoma City, though, is that it can give its opponents radically different looks. We all think of the Thunder as agents of chaos who feast on turnovers and run-outs, but, if you just look at their double-big minutes, they have a different profile — they succeed largely because they dominate the glass and allow almost nothing at the rim.

Maybe Daigneault will stick with the double-big starting lineup because he thinks pounding the offensive glass is the best way to stop Indiana from leaking out in transition. Maybe he’d prefer to use it against the Pacers’ bench unit because he’d like to put one of the bigs on McConnell. Everything is on the table; he could go centerless in the second quarter just to see how Indiana responds.

“You’re just in a constant state of trying to evolve and stay a step ahead of the series to the degree that you can, knowing that your opponent is trying to do the same thing,” Daigneault said Sunday.

6. What can Indiana get out of its bench?

This question is more of a series of sub-questions:.

Is Mathurin ready for this? He’s had his moments during this playoff run, but, against both Cleveland and New York, he was actively harmful in multiple games. Mathurin is the Pacers’ best foul-drawer, and, as a microwave scorer, he’s precisely the type of player who can swing the momentum of a game. His challenge, though, will be consistently making the right reads against a defense that will try to bait him into bad decisions.

How will McConnell and Ben Sheppard hold up? Both of them could get a shot at defending Gilgeous-Alexander when Nembhard’s not on him, and both are capable of giving Indiana a boost offensively. I’m particularly interested what happens when McConnell is running the show — in this series, with all of the length on the other side, can he get to his spots and find early shot clock scoring opportunities the way he normally does?

Can Jarace Walker give the Pacers anything? The 21-year-old forward will miss at least the first two games of the series, Carlisle said Monday in an interview on 107.5 The Fan, adding that “he was still on crutches [on Sunday]” after hurting his ankle in the fourth quarter of Game 6 against the Knicks. In theory, Walker’s defensive versatility could get him on the floor later in the series, but it’s unclear if he’ll even be available. This is a big-time bummer for all of your favorite podcasters.

What is the answer at backup 5? Thomas Bryant was awesome in the clincher against New York, but I have my concerns about his pick-and-roll defense and there’s no guarantee that his 3s will keep falling. If Indiana needs to go another direction, will Tony Bradley, who hurt his hip in Game 5 of the conference finals, be a viable option? I’m not sure Bradley will be much more of a deterrent in drop coverage, especially if he’s less than 100 percent healthy. Toppin is always something of an X-factor for the Pacers, and he’ll be even more important if they’re forced to go small.

The NBA Finals tip off Thursday. Boom baby/Thunder up! The passing is what you think about, but the threat of scoring is what creates the advantages and opens up the passing. And Haliburton can really score. He can shoot 3s, he can score in the pick-and-roll game. He’s a constant threat, and then the minute you commit yourself to him, he leverages that threat to throw the ball early to his teammates and put guys in advantages. “.