Life expectancy in the US already falls behind many other developed countries, putting us in 49th place in global rankings in 2022 — but a new report says we’ll drop even further to 66th place in 2050.
IHME noted that life expectancy gains nationwide are not keeping pace with other countries.
The US’ global ranking is expected to decline to 66th in 2050 among 204 countries and territories.
IHME also analyzed the US’ health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), which is the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health.
This is not the first time public health experts have sounded the alarm about stalled US life expectancy gains.
According to a recent report, the United States will fall even further to 66th place in the world rankings by 2050, with life expectancy already lagging behind many other developed nations, ranking 49th in 2022.
According to a study by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) that was published this week in the Lancet, Americans are predicted to live an average of 80 point 4 years in that year, up from 79 point 9 years in 2035 and 78 point 3 years in 2022.
Researchers are pointing to an impending “public health crisis of unimaginable scale” as the reason for our slight increase, which has left us behind other countries. “.”.
New York, which is expected to rank 41st in the world by 2050—a decline from 33rd in 2022—will have the highest life expectancy in the US, but life expectancy is not uniform throughout the US.
According to IHME, improvements in life expectancy across the country are not keeping up with those in other nations. In 2050, out of 204 nations and territories, the US is predicted to drop to 66th place in the world rankings.
“Our models predict health improvements slowing down due to rising rates of obesity, which is a serious risk factor to many chronic diseases and forecasted to leap to levels never seen before,” said IHME Director Christopher J., despite modest increases in life expectancy overall. L. . Murray. .
Murray, the study’s co-senior author, continued, “The escalation in obesity and overweight rates in the United States, with IHME projecting over 260 million individuals impacted by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable scale.”.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that over 100 million adults in the United States are obese, with over 22 million of those adults classified as severely obese.
Among other chronic conditions, obesity dramatically increases the risk of heart disease, stroke, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, Type 2 diabetes, and some types of cancer.
According to the IHME, removing risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, and high blood sugar by 2050 could save 12–4 million lives.
Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), or the average number of years one can expect to live in good health, was also examined by IHME for the US.
By 2050, the United States is expected to fall from 80th place in the 2022 HALE global ranking to 108th place.
According to co-senior author Stein Emil Vollset, an affiliate professor at IHME, “the rapid decline of the US in global rankings from 2022 to 2050 rings the alarm for immediate action.”. “To slow the decline in future health outcomes, the United States needs to reverse its current trend and develop new and improved health policies and strategies. “.”.
In particular, it is anticipated that over the coming decades, there will be little to no improvement in the health of US women.
Ohio, Tennessee, and Indiana were among the 20 states where IHME predicted a decline in female HALE by 2050.
According to IHME, the rising number of deadly drug overdoses has somewhat offset declines in the mortality rates associated with diabetes, heart disease, and strokes for both men and women.
Ali Mokdad, the lead study author from IHME, stated that more efficacy and ongoing growth of programs to prevent and treat drug use are still required because the opioid epidemic is far from over.
Smoking is still a problem. According to IHME, a significant reduction in smoking rates could prolong the lives of 2 to 1 million people by 2050.
Public health experts have previously expressed concern about the stagnation of life expectancy increases in the United States. According to recent research, modern medicine is only producing modest improvements in longevity, so the biggest increases in longevity are found in the past.
S. Jay Olshansky, a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago who wrote the study, told The Post that you can try to extend your life by exercising, eating a healthy diet, receiving a good education, taking prescription drugs, and abstaining from cigarettes and recreational drugs.
