It could become a tropical depression or tropical storm Francine in the next two days.
From the above image you can see it is headed toward southeast Texas.
Where it’s going: The tropical tracks have the storm in the Gulf moving generally north Sunday and Monday.
This track reminds me of Hurricane Nicholas in 2021.
Nicholas had a big impact on Matagorda Bay and our coastal cities but not much of an impact inland.
Please do not take this as what is going to happen, but this is what it looks like on Sunday.
Impacts to southeast Texas: Our impacts depend on two things.
If this strengthens to a strong tropical storm or hurricane, impacts will be closer to the center of the storm.
Heavy rain could fall as early as Tuesday for southeast Texas.
There is dry air north of the low, but I don’t think it will prevent it from becoming a hurricane.
This Sunday, what’s new:.
This Sunday, the low in the Bay of Campeche is organizing itself better. In the next two days, it might intensify into a tropical depression or tropical storm Francine. Its direction is apparent in the image above: southeast Texas.
Where it is headed:.
Generally moving north on Sunday and Monday, the storm is located in the Gulf according to the tropical tracks. It is expected to turn right on Tuesday, moving toward Louisiana and us. I kept thinking of Hurricane Nicholas in 2021 when I heard this song. While Nicholas had little effect inland, he had a significant impact on Matagorda Bay and our coastal cities. A category one hurricane that quickly gained strength was Nicholas as well. This is how things appear on Sunday; please do not interpret this as what will actually occur.
Southeast Texas effects:.
Our effects are dependent upon two factors. If this continues to be weak or disorganized, Houston will first receive more rain. Impacts will be closer to the storm’s center if it intensifies into a powerful hurricane or tropical storm. Secondly, since the center is anticipated to be closer to the coast, all of the available data points to our coastal cities as having the largest effects. Observe how the two Rain Total graphics differ from one another. Along our coast, five inches of rain are possible with the center close to Matagorda. If Louisiana is directly affected, we will receive significantly less rain.
We now have the following to get ready for:.
We have to be ready for street flooding in its current state. For southeast Texas, there could be significant rain as early as Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday are the days when flooding is most likely to occur. We’ll get more rain the further the center is to the west or left. If this turns right before it floods, there won’t be any. We shall be on the calm or weak side of the storm, which explains why. The strong or dirty side of a storm is located on its right. We had a strong/dirty relationship with Beryl.
Here’s what I believe:.
You deserve to know my opinion if you’ve read this far. Houston won’t get much more than a little rain on Tuesday and Wednesday unless the track significantly changes when it turns into a depression or storm. Windy conditions and choppy waves will undoubtedly have an effect on our coastal cities. Since our system hasn’t formed yet, it’s too early to predict how storm surge or tides will behave. But I’ll let you know as soon as this occurs. In addition, I predict a category one hurricane. I don’t think the dry air to the north of the low will stop it from turning into a hurricane. Ten percent of the model predicts that this will develop into a hurricane. The images of an artificial intelligence model, a German model, and the ICON are also added below. Over a week has passed and neither of these has changed in terms of timing or location. My upcoming update is scheduled for tomorrow.