There is a chance of an isolated tornado


Here’s the official outline of where severe thunderstorms could occur Thursday, and some commentary from my perspective.
We have a warm front that will stretch across southern Michigan Thursday.
In a warm front situation, we have warm air on southwest winds south of the front and northeast winds and cooler air north of the front.
The sharp contrast in wind direction gives the wind shear needed to have thunderstorms rotate and become severe.
There’s an old saying in meteorology, “Never trust a warm front.” The surface conditions may not seem hot and humid and what we feel would make severe storms.
The conditions just above the surface may be conducive to severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has given us their afternoon update on tomorrow’s severe weather chances.
They still have anywhere from I-94 southward in a chance of severe thunderstorms.
Here’s where they have the severe thunderstorm outline.
Our severe weather forecasts have five risk levels.
Tomorrow’s situation is only risk level 1 and is also called a marginal risk.
The severe weather risk is in the southern third of Lower Michigan from Grand Rapids to Lansing to Oakland County and all areas southward into Ohio and Indiana.
Detroit, Ann Arbor, Jackson and Kalamazoo are all in the potential severe thunderstorm area.
The overall risk of all severe weather forms for Thursday, March 14.NOAAThe Storm Prediction Center (SPC) then breaks down the chance of the various types of severe weather.
The tornado chance is low but it is there because of the previously mentioned wind shift and wind shear.
Along I-94 and southward there is a 2% chance of an isolated tornado.
The risk of a tornado is pegged at two percent Thursday, March 14.NOAAIf there are any isolated severe wind gusts in the thunderstorms they are also likely to occur from I-94 southward.
The risk of isolated severe wind gusts is pegged at five percent Thursday, March 14.NOAAHail is easier to form in March thunderstorms because of the colder air aloft.
The hail chance extends northward to Grand Rapids, Lansing and Oakland County.
The risk of isolated large hail is pegged at five percent Thursday, March 14.NOAAHere’s the radar forecast I like for tomorrow’s situation.
We see two rounds of thunderstorms.
One round will be very early in the morning with the second round in the first half of the afternoon.
Radar forecast from 5 a.m. Thursday to midnight Friday.NOAAOnce the second round moves out of southeast Michigan, our chance of severe weather will be over.
I can see why the SPC wants to put far southern Lower Michigan in the chance of severe thunderstorms.
But I also know fortunately it’s hard to get severe thunderstorms in Michigan without almost optimum conditions.
The northeast wind coming off Lake Huron usually is the stronger weather condition and shoves any unstable air south into Ohio.
Early morning isn’t a typical time for severe storms and early afternoon is just on the edge of severe weather time, even in the heat of summer.
So I’m not extremely concerned about a widespread severe weather outbreak tomorrow.
But I remind you of our saying: “Never trust a warm front.”Just keep a close eye to the weather information tomorrow if you are going to be away from safe shelter.

Here’s the official forecast for the areas where strong thunderstorms may develop on Thursday, along with some observations from me.

On Thursday, a warm front is expected to pass through southern Michigan. When there is a warm front, there is warmer air to the south of the front on southwest winds, and cooler air to the north of the front on northeast winds. The wind shear required for thunderstorms to rotate and intensify is provided by the stark contrast in wind direction.

In meteorology, there’s an old proverb that goes, “Never trust a warm front.”. It may not appear that the surface conditions are hot and muggy, which is what we believe would cause strong storms. It’s possible that severe weather will develop due to the circumstances just above the surface.

We have an update on tomorrow’s chances of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon. There is still a chance of severe thunderstorms anywhere from I-94 southward.

The outline of a severe thunderstorm is located here. Five risk categories are included in our severe weather forecasts. The scenario of tomorrow is referred to as a marginal risk since it only carries risk level 1. From Grand Rapids to Lansing to Oakland County and all points southward into Ohio and Indiana, the southern third of Lower Michigan is at risk for severe weather. Detroit, Ann Arbor, Jackson, and Kalamazoo are situated within the probable region of intense thunderstorms.

For Thursday, March 14, the entire risk of any severe weather is present. NOAA.

The probability of each category of severe weather is then broken down by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Although the likelihood of a tornado is low, wind shear and wind shift—which were previously mentioned—make it possible. A 2% probability of an isolated tornado exists along I-94 and southward.

On Thursday, March 14, the chance of a tornado is estimated to be 2%. AAAA.

In addition, isolated severe wind gusts are likely to originate from I-94 southward if there are any thunderstorms.

On Thursday, March 14, the chance of lone, strong wind gusts is estimated to be 5%. NOAA.

March thunderstorms are more likely to produce hail due to the lower air temperature. The likelihood of hail stretches northward to Oakland County, Grand Rapids, and Lansing.

On March 14th, Thursday, there is a five percent chance of an isolated large hailstorm. NOAA.

This is my preferred radar forecast for the conditions tomorrow. Two rounds of thunderstorms are visible. There will be two rounds: one in the early morning and the second in the afternoon.

5 a.m. radar forecast. M. Thursday through Friday at midnight. NAA.

Our chance of severe weather will end once the second round exits southeast Michigan.

The SPC’s desire to increase the likelihood of severe thunderstorms in far southern Lower Michigan makes sense. I am aware, however, that fortunately, Michigan rarely experiences strong thunderstorms without nearly ideal circumstances. Generally, the stronger weather pattern is the northeast wind off Lake Huron, which pushes any unstable air south into Ohio. Even in the hottest part of summer, severe storms don’t usually occur in the early afternoon or early morning.

Therefore, I don’t think there will be a significant outbreak of severe weather tomorrow. I do, however, bring up our adage, “Never trust a warm front.”. “.

If you will be away from safe shelter tomorrow, just keep a close watch on the weather reports.

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