A disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to organize into a tropical storm Monday and then pose a potential hurricane threat to the far upper Texas and Louisiana coasts by midweek.
It’s currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, which allows the National Hurricane Center to issue tropical storm and/or hurricane watches or warnings for a system that has not yet developed, but is expected to impact land areas within 48 hours.
Most of the rain from this system is located offshore at this time, but some bands are spreading toward South Texas.
The system will intensify and impact Texas and Louisiana through midweek: The disturbance is forecast to organize into a tropical storm on Monday as it lifts northward.
Strengthening into a hurricane is possible up until its landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday along either the far upper Texas coast or in southern Louisiana.
Impacts will largely be the same regardless if this system makes landfall as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane.
It’s important to note that impacts from this system will spread along the Texas coast early this week and eventually the Louisiana coast ahead of any landfall.
Hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge watches will likely be issued on Monday for portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.
Damaging winds Much of the Texas coast will see gusty winds as the system lifts northward early this week.
The strongest winds will arrive at landfall and for some distance inland along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts.
By midweek, the coasts of far upper Texas and Louisiana could be in danger of a hurricane due to a disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico that is predicted to form into a tropical storm on Monday.
Francine is the following named storm in the Atlantic Basin.
(MAP TRACKER: Additional Models & More).
The disturbance is currently situated approximately 535 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, and is moving northwest in a north-northwest direction. With its current designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, the National Hurricane Center is able to issue watches and warnings for tropical storms and/or hurricanes for systems that have not yet developed but are predicted to affect land areas in less than 48 hours.
Right now, the majority of this system’s rain is offshore, but some bands are moving toward South Texas.
(READ MORE: How to Identify a Possible Tropical Cyclone).
Through midweek, the system is expected to strengthen and affect Texas and Louisiana. On Monday, the disturbance is predicted to organize into a tropical storm as it moves northward. Up to landfall late on Wednesday or early on Thursday, the storm may intensify into a hurricane off the coast of southern Louisiana or the far upper Texas region. Whether this system makes landfall as a Category 1 hurricane or as a powerful tropical storm, the effects will be almost the same.
It’s significant to remember that this system’s effects will gradually move to the Louisiana coast ahead of any landfall, starting this week along the Texas coast. Following landfall, the system will disperse rainfall over a large area of the South and as far north as the Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys.
where alerts and warnings are in force. Tropical storm watches have been issued for Texas from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, and for Mexico from Barra del Tordo northward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
On Monday, watches for storm surge, tropical storm, and hurricane are probably going to be issued for parts of the coastlines in upper Texas and Louisiana.
Potential Effects.
Flooding precipitation.
Because of the region’s recent heavy rainfall, the rain will fall on saturated soil, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
This system will continue to bring heavy rain into late week, extending across other parts of the South as far north as the Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys. In these areas, flooding could at least be localized.
(Only accessible through our Premium Pro experience, further strengthen your forecast with our comprehensive, hour-by-hour analysis for the upcoming eight days. ( ).
Storm-Surge.
Starting Tuesday night, low-lying areas along the coasts of upper Texas and Louisiana will be inundated by a life-threatening storm surge. If local officials order you to evacuate, heed their advice.
Later on Monday, more details regarding the storm surge forecast will become available.
damaging winds.
As the system lifts northward early this week, a large portion of the Texas coast will experience gusty winds. In rain bands with stronger gusts, localized power outages cannot be completely ruled out.
The strongest winds will come ashore and continue inland along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts for a while. In some places, the winds will bring down trees and cause power outages.
Potential Tornadoes.
When tropical cyclones land, they frequently cause a few tornadoes to form close to and inland from the coast. In southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle, an isolated tornado threat could materialize by Wednesday or Wednesday night as a result of this system.
By Friday, the danger of tornadoes could still exist along the northern Gulf Coast and extend as far north as the Tennessee Valley. This was stated in the previous sentence. Please return for updates, as details are still pending.
