The race is on for Poland’s new president, with the two candidates neck-and-neck ahead of an election on June 1 that will have an impact well beyond the country’s borders.
“It’s wide open and will be very close,” said Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor at the University of Sussex who keeps an eye on Polish politics.
Despite most polls taken before the vote giving him an edge in the June 1 second round, he has a much tougher job than Nawrocki.
Nawrocki has already started making eyes at Mentzen’s voters, telling them immediately after Sunday’s election: “This is the time to save Poland.
Like PiS, Mentzen is socially conservative, calling for a ban on abortion even in cases of rape, but he’s also economically libertarian, favoring low taxes and entrepreneurs.
Ahead of the June 1 election, which will have an impact far beyond Poland’s borders, the two candidates are in a close race to become the country’s next president.
Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski narrowly defeated Karol Nawrocki, who was backed by the populist right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, with 31.04 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round of voting.
The question at hand is not only who will be elected president, which is primarily a ceremonial role, but also whether Poland’s attempt to restore a rule of law-based system can be successful.
As with Donald Trump’s triumphant return to the United States, PiS must decide if its loss in the 2023 parliamentary election was merely a short-term setback. A. After a four-year break, the party may try to regain the presidency.
According to Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor at the University of Sussex who studies Polish politics, “it’s wide open and will be very close.”.
The outcome on Sunday was considerably closer than anticipated, which puts Trzaskowski at a disadvantage. He has a far harder task than Nawrocki, even though the majority of pre-election polls gave him an advantage in the second round on June 1.
Political scientist Bartosz Rydliński of Warsaw’s Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University warned that Trzaskowski might not have enough time to change his campaign. Trzaskowski has eleven days left to figure out why so many people who had previously supported his coalition chose to vote for other candidates or stayed at home. “”.
After the first round of voting, the mayor of Warsaw will need to figure out how to win over the support of those who voted for minor left-wing candidates and rally his core centrist big-city electorate.
“Trzaskowski must demonstrate to left-wing voters that he values them and that it is worthwhile for them to cast their ballots [on June 1].”. Magdalena Biejat, the Left’s candidate who won 42% of the vote, told TVN24 television on election night, “I’m happy to help him adjust his course in a way that includes the issues that matter to the left and to left-wing voters.”.
Taking fifth place with 5 percent was Szymon Hołownia, the speaker of parliament and leader of the Poland 2050 party, which is also a member of Tusk’s coalition. He made it apparent that he supports the mayor of Warsaw.
Following Sunday’s vote, he stated, “I want to say from my side, and I believe that such a decision will also be made by our political grouping, that we must give Rafał Trzaskowski a chance in this second round.”.
However, Trzaskowski must also win over some backers of Sławomir Mentzen, a right-wing libertarian who finished in third place with 14 percent.
Tusk-tied.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose ratings have plummeted as his coalition government has failed to deliver on the reform pledges it made prior to the 2023 election, is Trzaskowski’s problem. Trzaskowski feels hurt by the new government’s sense of disarray, which the government attributes to incumbent PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda for impeding its agenda.
“A lot of people are really disappointed with Tusk,” Szczerbiak said, referring to those who sought reforms such as a relaxation of Poland’s harsh abortion regulations, legalization for same-sex partnerships, or a more determined attempt to hold former PiS government officials accountable for alleged wrongdoing.
Nawrocki’s job is simpler. All he needs to do is rally the majority of voters who supported opposition candidates to Tusk’s administration.
Right-wing and far-right candidates received 54% of the vote in the first round, according to Piotr Buras, senior policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations.
In an analysis published after the election, Nawrocki stated that he “will have a larger pool of votes to draw upon.”.
Following Sunday’s election, Nawrocki began addressing Mentzen’s supporters, saying, “Now is the time to save Poland.”. We both desire Poland to be independent, powerful, prosperous, and safe. “.”.
PiS tends to draw older and poorer voters from smaller towns, so Mentzen’s supporters—who tend to be young and urban—are not a good fit. While Mentzen shares PiS’s social conservatism and supports a ban on abortion, even in rape cases, he is also an economic libertarian who supports entrepreneurs and low taxes. His position puts him more in line with Civic Platform than PiS voters who favor the welfare state.
After Sunday’s vote, Mentzen stated, “I intend to help our voters make a decision in the second round,” but he also added, “Each of our voters is an informed, rational person and will make their own decision on who to vote for, or whether to vote at all in the second round.”. “”.
This is the “battered favorite.”.
From Mentzen to antisemitic rabble-rouser Grzegorz Braun to far-left purist Adrian Zandberg, many voters selected candidates who were vehemently opposed to the status quo. Instead of voting for PiS or Civic Platform, the parties that have controlled Polish politics for the past 20 years, they might choose to stay at home on June 1.
Zandberg declined to explicitly support Trzaskowski, saying, “Voters aren’t potato sacks you can toss around.”.
It’s not that Nawrocki will receive all of the votes from Mentzen and Braun’s supporters. Aleksander Kwaśniewski, the president from 1995 to 2005, stated on Polish public television that the democratic forces do not have a significant advantage or safety net to sleep on.
Foreign policy is also likely to play a part in the next two weeks.
After being isolated under PiS for years, Poland has emerged as a major force in European politics under Tusk, and Nawrocki is probably going to keep advocating for the EU to become a more flexible confederation of nation states.
The next few weeks of the campaign may be influenced by Mentzen’s far more skepticism, even though both candidates firmly support Ukraine in its defensive war against Russia.
“If I get my way, you won’t have our soldiers with you, you won’t ever join NATO, and you won’t receive any welfare in Poland,” Mentzen said to Ukrainians earlier this month.
