As PSG and Inter prepare to face off in Munich, we look ahead to Saturday’s huge game with our UEFA Champions League final prediction and preview.
While PSG are appearing in their second European Cup/Champions League final, this is Inter’s seventh appearance in the showpiece match.
They have also registered their most shots per game (18.6) in a Champions League season since 2003-04, when Opta began recording such data.
In fact, this will be the fifth European Cup/Champions League final to be held in Munich.
PSG vs Inter: Champions League Final Prediction Inter are unbeaten in their last four matches against French opponents in Europe (W2 D2) since a 1-0 loss to Marseille in the 2011-12 Champions League last 16.
The big showdown is about to happen. Using our UEFA Champions League final prediction and preview, we anticipate Saturday’s crucial match between PSG and Inter as they get ready to play in Munich.
The main points of PSG vs. Inter stats.
Paris Saint-Germain has a 56.6 chance of winning the UEFA Champions League, making them the favorites to do so for the first time in their history, according to the Opta supercomputer.
Only the second time a French and Italian team have faced each other in a European Cup or Champions League final, PSG and Inter are playing each other in a competitive match for the first time.
PSG is making their second appearance in the Champions League/European Cup final, but Inter is making their seventh appearance in the main event.
When Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan square off for European championship on Saturday, the entire football world will be watching from Munich’s Allianz Arena.
In the last five years, both teams have finished second in the Champions League: Inter was defeated by Manchester City in 2023, while PSG was defeated by Bayern Munich in 2020.
Given the part Inter played in their thrilling semi-final matchup with Hansi Flick’s team, most people were expecting a high-stakes matchup between PSG and Barcelona, but this matchup still looks to be a thriller.
This season, PSG has arguably been the best team in Europe. After winning the Ligue 1 championship and the Coupe de France last weekend, Luis Enrique’s team is vying for a treble.
Barcelona (174) is the only team in Europe’s top five leagues with more goals overall than PSG (147), and only the Blaugrana can claim a higher expected goals (xG) total for the 2024–25 season (145.3 compared to PSG’s 142.5)).
PSG leads the league in shots (1,074), shots on goal (450), and big chances (280). The only team with more touches in the opposition box than the Parisians (2,207) is Manchester City (2,239).
Joining Carlo Ancelotti (Milan, Real Madrid), Ottmar Hitzfeld (Borussia Dortmund, Bayern), Jupp Heynckes (Real Madrid, Bayern Munich), José Mourinho (Porto and Inter), and Pep Guardiola (Barcelona and Man City) as the sixth manager to win the Champions League with two different clubs is Luis Enrique, who won the league with Barcelona in 2015.
After Guardiola, Luis Enrique might be the only coach to win a treble consisting of the Champions League, a major domestic trophy, and a league title with two different teams. That success with Barça ten years ago did indeed come as part of a treble.
A sign of things to come? Ten years ago, when their Spanish coach won the treble, his Barça team defeated an Italian team (Juventus) in the championship match.
In a single major European campaign, PSG has won the most games (10) and scored the most goals (33) this season. Of course, the competition has more games now that it has been revamped, and PSG must play Brest in a two-leg knockout play-off after a somewhat rocky expanded league phase.
Additionally, they recorded the most shots per game (18 points) in a Champions League season since Opta started keeping track of such statistics in 2003–04.
But Inter is no pushover, as they demonstrated in their exciting victory over Barça in the semi-finals.
Even though Simone Inzaghi may have relaxed during those two legs against their La Liga rivals, Inter’s Champions League success this season has mostly been based on strong foundations. They are the team with the most clean sheets (8), giving up just 11 goals (including one own goal), six of which came during that two-leg semifinal.
Yann Sommer’s performances as goalie have been essential to their defensive stability.
Sommer has stopped more goals than any other goalkeeper in the Champions League this season, based on the quality of shots on target faced (using xGOT) (+5.9 – 10 goals conceded from 15.9 xG on target faced, excluding own goals).
Sommer is the goalie with the most clean sheets (seven) in the Champions League this season. The only players with more saves in the competition this season than the Switzerland international (48) are Thibaut Courtois (52) and Emiliano Martínez (49).
Given that Inter has given up a tournament-high 214 shots, their goalkeeper’s dependability has undoubtedly been a key component. They are, however, primarily sacrificing opportunities of poor quality, as evidenced by their 17.3 expected goals. In fact, the average xG of the shots that Inter has encountered is only 0 points.
Veteran campaigner Francesco Acerbi has done more than his share of the work ahead of Sommer.
After Ryan Giggs for Manchester United in 2011 (37 years, 180 days), Paolo Maldini for Milan in 2007 (38 years, 331 days), and Lothar Matthäus for Bayern in 1999 (38 years, 66 days), Acerbi, who scored Inter’s vital late equalizer in the semi-final matchup against Barcelona, may be the fourth-oldest outfield player to start a Champions League final (37 years, 110 days).
Denzel Dumfries, a flying wing-back, contributed to five goals in the semi-final legs against Barça (two goals and three assists), which is equal to the number of goals he has contributed in his 51 prior European appearances.
The key for Inzaghi has been experience. In the Champions League this season, only Atletico Madrid (43.5 percent) has given players older than 30 more minutes than Inter (43.3 percent). The team’s total of 6,151 minutes played by players older than 30 is the most since Juventus (6,186) in 2016–17. Only one player, Marquinhos, has contributed all 1,350 of PSG’s allotment to players 30 years of age or older.
The Serie A team has undoubtedly benefited from it. Inter has fallen behind in just three of their Champions League games this season, but never for longer than 370 seconds—285 seconds against Bayer Leverkusen, 370 seconds against Bayern, and 343 seconds against Barcelona. This means that Inter has only trailed for 1.2 percent of their games this season. In terms of winning percentage, they have also spent the most time (50.8%).
Not that it has only involved gritted defense and slogging it out.
This season, Inter has scored 26 Champions League goals, which is tied for the most goals in a major European season (they also scored 26 in 2002–03).
They may become the third team to score two goals or more in every knockout game, including the season finale, after Real Madrid in 1959–60 (seven games) and Milan in 1993–94 (two games). They have scored two goals or more in each of the six knockout games.
There will be competition from two of Europe’s top forwards to take center stage.
This season, Ousmane Dembélé has scored 12 Champions League goals (eight goals, four assists), the most by a PSG player in a single season. Only Zlatan Ibrahimović in 2013–14 (10) has scored more goals in a single Champions League edition.
Lautaro Martínez, on the other hand, has scored in the quarterfinals, semifinals, and the last sixteen. In a single season, only five players have scored in those stages plus the final: Sadio Mané in 2017–18, Lionel Messi in 2010–11, Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013–14, Diego Milito in 2009–10, and Frank Lampard in 2007–08.
In addition, the Argentine needs just one more goal to become the first Inter player to score ten goals in a major European season.
After Marseille defeated Milan 1-0 in 1993, this will only be the second time an Italian and a French team have faced each other in a European Cup or Champions League final. The only other time a French team has ever taken home the trophy is that time. Coincidentally, Munich hosted that final as well.
Actually, this will be Munich’s fifth time hosting a European Cup or Champions League final. In each of the last four, the winners were taking home the trophy for the first time; PSG wants to carry on this tradition (Nottingham Forest in 1979, Marseille in 1993, Dortmund in 1997, Chelsea in 2012). But in their 15 major European finals, French clubs have only triumphed twice.
PSG vs. Inter head-to-head.
Inter has a distinct advantage when it comes to experience in major European finals; this season, they finished second in Serie A.
Inter has won the trophy three times (1964, 1965, and 2010) and is making their seventh appearance in the European Cup/Champions League final. In 2023, when Guardiola’s team won the treble, they did lose their most recent final appearance, losing 1-0 to Man City.
PSG has made two appearances in the Champions League/European Cup final. Their 1995–96 UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup victory makes them the final French team to win a major European trophy.
Since the start of the European Cup/Champions League in 1955, PSG has played the fourth-most games (167) without ever winning, trailing only Arsenal (211), Dynamo Kyiv (185), and Atletico Madrid (176). With a victory in this match, they would have the most games prior to their first trophy. Man City currently holds the record with 116 games prior to their 117th victory in the 2023 final against Inter.
Therefore, the fact that this is Inter’s and PSG’s first competitive encounter is a little unexpected. Luis Enrique and Simone Inzaghi also meet for the first time in this final.
Over the course of their careers, both coaches have presided over 32 Champions League games, with Luis Enrique winning 20 and Inzaghi winning 17.
PSG vs. Inter: Forecast for the Champions League Final.
Since losing 1-0 to Marseille in the 2011–12 Champions League last 16 match, Inter has won all four of their European games against French opponents (W2 D2).
They are not supported to continue that run, however, by the Opta supercomputer.
Within 90 minutes, PSG won 44.6 percent of the 10,000 pre-match data-driven simulations, compared to Inter’s 29 percent. Extra time and possibly penalties are used in the remaining 26.4 percent of simulations.
Our model, which rates PSG’s chances at 56.6 percent versus Inter’s 43.4 percent, makes them the overall favorites to win the trophy.
Predicted lineups for PSG vs. Inter.
Rankings for Opta Power.
A worldwide system for ranking teams is the Opta Power Rankings. More than 13,000 domestic football teams are given an ability score by them. The world’s worst team is ranked at zero, and the best team is ranked at 100. This score is on a scale from zero to 100.
These are the Opta Power Rankings for both teams ahead of Saturday’s kickoff.
