Battleground Polling Shows Ticket Splitting


This morning, we have a new set of polls for you in the battleground states, including New York Times/Siena College polls of Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and the inaugural Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania.
The results in the presidential race would have been surprising a year ago, but it’s hard to call them surprising anymore.
Donald J. Trump leads in five of the six states among likely voters, with Mr. Biden squeaking out a lead among likely voters in Michigan.
Mr. Trump’s strength is largely thanks to gains among young, Black and Hispanic voters.
What’s more surprising is the U.S. Senate results.
Nevada was ground zero for this striking ticket splitting.
Mr. Trump led the poll by a staggering 12 points among registered voters, thanks to an eye-popping nine-point lead among Hispanic voters and a 13-point lead among those 18 to 29.
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We’ve got fresh polls for you this morning from the battleground states, including the first-ever Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania and the New York Times/Siena College polls from Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.

A year ago, the results of the presidential race would have been shocking, but that’s difficult to say today. Don J. Trump leads among likely voters in five of the six states, with Mr. Biden barely holding a lead in Michigan. The rise in young, Black, and Hispanic voters is a major factor in Mr. Trump’s popularity.

The U.S. is more surprising. S. Senate outcomes. We haven’t asked about Senate races yet this year, but in the four states we looked at—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada—the Democratic candidates were leading.

Not only do Democrats lead, but they appear to do so in a completely typical manner as well, drawing typical levels of support from voters who are younger and non-white, even in the face of Mr. Biden’s struggles at the top of the ticket.

This remarkable ticket splitting began in Nevada. Thanks to an astounding nine-point lead among Hispanic voters and a 13-point lead among those between the ages of 18 and 29, Mr. Trump led the poll by a stunning 12 points among registered voters.

But in the race for the Senate, everything appears “normal.”. Senator Jacky Rosen, a Democrat, had a two-point advantage over her most likely Republican opponent among registered voters, with a 46-27 margin among individuals in the 18 to 29 age group and a 46-28 advantage among Hispanic voters.

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