NASA Raises Odds of Asteroid Smacking the Moon in 2032

NASA says the chances of a 10-story-sized asteroid hitting the Moon in 2032 have increased marginally. The agency said on June 5 that the likelihood of an impact on the moon for Asteroid 2024 YR4 has increased from 3 to 8 percent to 4 to 3 percent.

When preliminary data indicated earlier this year that it might collide with Earth in roughly eight years, this notorious space rock created quite a stir. However, as additional information was acquired, it became evident that this asteroid did not pose a threat to Earth. However, there is still a chance that YR4 in 2024 will strike the Moon. The odds of a lunar impact have slightly increased as a result of scientists’ ability to fine-tune the asteroid’s orbit using new observations from the James Webb Space Telescope.

It is common for the impact probability to change as new information becomes available, according to NASA’s announcement.

Upon the initial discovery of 2024 YR4 in December 2024 by Chile’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), NASA promptly designated it as a potentially dangerous object. On December 22, 2032, this asteroid had a roughly 1% chance of striking Earth, according to preliminary calculations. Over the course of the following few weeks, those odds startlingly increased to almost 3 percent before finally falling back to zero by the end of February.

The distance of 2024 YR4 from Earth was approximately 515,116 miles (829,000 kilometers) at the time of discovery. It has since moved farther away. The asteroid was too far away for ground-based telescopes to observe by the middle of April. Although Webb’s infrared capabilities allowed scientists to observe this space rock for approximately a month after it drifted beyond the reach of terrestrial technology, it won’t come close to Earth again until June 2028.

Using Webb’s Near-Infrared Camera, scientists under the direction of Andy Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, have been observing 2024 YR4 and determining the extent of its damage even as it has passed out of view. They managed to get a final glimpse of this space rock in May before it vanished behind the Sun. The asteroid’s location on December 22, 2032, was 20 percent better predicted by NASA thanks to this new information.

There are still (relatively) few chances that 2024 YR4 will collide with the Moon. Furthermore, according to NASA, the impact would not change the Moon’s orbit even if it did collide with the lunar surface. Researchers have also been able to improve their measurements of the asteroid’s size thanks to Webb’s observations, determining that it is comparatively small for an asteroid at between 174 and 220 feet (53 and 67 meters) wide. A direct strike would probably only create a new crater.

However, this does not negate the significance of this event. If a lunar impact occurs on the Moon’s Earth-facing side, scientists would have a unique chance to watch a crater form in real time. Even though 2024 YR4 is no longer a threat to Earth, its discovery gave scientists the opportunity to practice planetary defense techniques that might one day save lives.

The June 5 statement said NASA is already planning for the asteroid’s 2028 return to Earth. The shape and composition of the asteroid are crucial components of its behavior and possible impact effects, and more observations from Webb and ground-based telescopes could help scientists learn more about these aspects. We’ll just have to say goodbye to this troublemaking space traveler until then.