WASHINGTON — Early battle lines are forming over a centerpiece of the sprawling domestic policy bill that House Republicans narrowly passed, with Medicaid spending cuts emerging as a flash point that could define the 2026 midterm elections.
A recent memo from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee vows to make the GOP’s “tax scam” and Medicaid cuts “the defining contrast of the 2026 election cycle” in its efforts to win the House majority next year.
It plummets to 32% when respondents hear the argument that most Medicaid recipients are already working or are unable to work.
“While Medicaid cuts poll horribly, these individual policies poll well.
Republicans, notably, are focusing a new ad campaign of their own on touting the bill’s tax cuts, not its spending cuts.
WASHINGTON — Medicaid spending cuts have emerged as a flashpoint that could define the 2026 midterm elections, and early battle lines are forming over a centerpiece of the expansive domestic policy bill that House Republicans narrowly passed.
After Republicans largely pledged they wouldn’t cut Medicaid, Democrats are honing their message as they denounce the legislation, which is now headed to the GOP-led Senate, as a tax cut for the wealthy that would be financed by cutting health care.
In an effort to gain the House majority the following year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently issued a memo pledging to make the GOP’s “tax scam” and Medicaid cuts “the defining contrast of the 2026 election cycle.”.
According to a source familiar with the confidential discussions, the DCCC is advising Democratic candidates to attack the Republican bill as a Trojan horse intended to remove millions from Medicaid — not to relieve waste — through additional red tape.
Additionally, Republicans are attempting to reframe the conflict to suit their interests. By restricting Medicaid to those in need, “not fraudsters, able-bodied adults who refuse to work, or illegal immigrants,” the National Republican Congressional Committee is urging members to promote the bill as “strengthening Medicaid.”. “”.
Beneath the altercation lies a tumultuous discussion regarding the precise definition of a Medicaid “cut.”. “”.
Republicans argue that their bill shouldn’t be classified as a cut because they aren’t directly reducing disabilities and low-income people’s benefits. Those who need the program the most would be among the millions of people who would lose coverage if they are unable to meet the new bureaucratic requirements to continuously prove their eligibility, according to Democrats and outside critics.
Strict new requirements to maintain Medicaid eligibility—which would require adult recipients to demonstrate they are working or performing “community service” for at least 80 hours per month, with few exceptions, such as pregnant women—would account for the majority of the cost savings. By the end of 2026, that rule would become effective. Additional regulations would require confirming addresses, demonstrating legal immigration status, and conducting eligibility screenings more frequently—once every six months as opposed to once a year.
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the bill would eliminate health coverage for approximately 8 million people and cut Medicaid by roughly $700 billion compared to current law. Since the estimate was predicated on the work requirement starting in 2029, prior to its advancement in the updated bill, the number of uninsured people may be higher. ).
Republicans are attempting to refocus the discussion on the work requirements, which polls indicate are generally supported by able-bodied adults, and portray the bill as an effort to get Medicaid back to the people who need it the most.
In an emailed response to the GOP’s argument regarding the bill’s work requirements, DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton stated: “House Republicans are now frantically trying to shift the topic after being caught lying about their vote to deny millions of people access to health care. They specifically crafted their tax scam bill to be the biggest Medicaid cut in history, and now Republicans are caught in a dead end, arguing over whether or not people will lose their health insurance, but rather how many and how quickly. “.”.
Senate Republicans may amend the bill due to the politics of the intensifying dispute. The proposed Medicaid changes have already caused some people to voice their displeasure, even though they generally support work requirements and do not consider them to be “cuts.”. “.”.
Despite stating that he opposes Medicaid cuts, President Donald Trump supported the House bill. The GOP Medicaid policies were called “devastating” in a digital ad released by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee last week. “”.
Although support for work requirements is weak, Americans do support them.
The complexity of the problem is highlighted by a recent nationwide survey conducted by the nonpartisan health research organization KFF.
Overall, according to the survey, 62% of U. S. A majority of adults, including six out of ten independents, support new legislation that would “require nearly all adults to work or be looking for work in order to get health insurance through Medicaid.”.
However, the KFF poll indicated that the support was weak. Hearing the claim that the majority of Medicaid recipients are either employed or unable to work causes it to drop to 32% of respondents. Respondents’ support falls to 40% when they are told that the new regulations would increase administrative expenses without having a major impact on the proportion of Medicaid recipients doing work.
Republicans face additional challenges.
Overall, Medicaid funding cuts are unpopular, according to the KFF poll, with 82% of respondents saying they wanted Medicaid spending to rise or remain roughly the same and only 17% saying they wanted it to fall. Medicaid spending should be cut, according to only 33% of respondents, including Republicans.
According to the survey, 3 out of 4 U. S. . Among adults, only one-fourth believed that the legislation was about improving Medicaid’s operation, whereas the majority believed it was about cutting government spending.
At least one Democratic candidate, however, has been stymied by the GOP focus. Manny Rutinel is interested in the freshman representative’s seat. R-Colo Gabe Evans. refused three times to answer a question about whether he supports work requirements for able-bodied adults on Denver’s NBC affiliate, KUSA.
On condition of anonymity, a national Democratic strategist said candidly, “It was painful to watch.”.
According to the strategist, Democrats have a responsibility to raise the voices of ordinary citizens in their districts who would suffer as a result of the new regulations and to argue that “people who need Medicaid are going to lose it because of what Republicans are doing.”. “.”.
Leaders in the Democratic Party caution that the dynamics are different this time around as they reiterate their winning message from the 2018 election cycle, when Republicans attempted to repeal the Affordable Care Act and implemented the Trump tax cuts.
Ashley Schapitl, a former Democratic Senate communications aide, stated that the Republican “message today is about requiring able-bodied Americans to work, preventing fraud, and ensuring noncitizens are not covered.”. “These individual policies poll well, but Medicaid cuts poll horribly. Democrats can still prevail in this debate, but members need a stern message and discipline regarding immigration and work requirements rather than becoming comfortable with repeating the same mistakes from 2017. “”.
In 26 Republican-held districts, House Majority Forward, a political organization dedicated to electing Democrats, began a six-figure advertising campaign Wednesday, accusing the lawmakers of voting to increase costs for average citizens through Medicaid cuts.
According to an advertisement in the 8th District of Pennsylvania, freshman GOP Rep. In order to fund tax breaks for the ultra-rich, Rob Bresnahan “just cast the deciding vote to raise the cost of your groceries and cut your health care, including Medicaid.”. Similar tactics are employed against other incumbents, all of whom played crucial roles in last week’s 215-214 vote that approved the legislation and sent it to the Senate.
Interestingly, Republicans are concentrating their own new advertising campaign on highlighting the tax cuts in the bill rather than its spending cuts.
The NRCC released new advertisements on Friday that claim that 25 Democratic incumbents in competitive districts voted “for the largest U.S.”. A. tax hike in generations” by rejecting the bill that would prolong the Trump tax cuts that are set to expire in 2017. The commercial, which claims that “illegals get freebies, you get the bill,” subtly alludes to citizenship verification for benefits. “.”.
Medicaid does not appear in the advertisement.
