How much does a Russian drone attack on Ukraine cost? The question is more complicated than it sounds

Civilians spent hours underground as Russia launched three nights of massive aerial attacks on Ukrainian villages and cities, starting overnight on Saturday, May 24. The attacks involved nearly a thousand drones and missiles.

Over a dozen people were killed and numerous others were injured by Russia’s bombardment, which was one of the most well-planned attacks since the war began.

Although it is not inexpensive to launch such lethal drone and missile storms, the price of these weapons is classified military information that Russia keeps private.

Attacks such as the one that occurred this past weekend cost Russia hundreds of thousands of dollars in weapons, according to estimates from experts and media outlets. The estimated numbers, however, differ greatly, and that’s before factoring in additional expenses beyond their retail price, such as the cost of launching a missile or the cost of storage prior to use.

Angelica Evans, a Russia analyst with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), stated that “Russia goes to great lengths to obfuscate the cost of the missiles and drones, so it is quite difficult to estimate the cost of these large strikes in the open-source.”.

It’s challenging to determine the true cost of all the different projectile components, let alone the production cost, especially in light of the imposition of Western sanctions and Russia’s numerous sanctions evasion tactics. “..”.

What weapons did the most recent attack use?

Shahed drones, decoy drones, three different kinds of cruise missiles, and Iskander-M and KN-23 ballistic missiles were all used in the weekend attack, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.

903 of the 995 weapons were Shahed kamikaze drones, also known as decoy drones, which were designed to imitate Shahed behavior and overwhelm air defense systems.

Additionally, Russia launched 69 cruise missiles, including 4 Kh-59/69 missiles, 64 Kh-101 missiles, and one Kh-22 missile.

North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles or Iskander-M ballistic missiles made up the remaining 23 weapons.

What are the costs of the weapons?

Some experts have attempted to use open-source information, such as analyzing hacked procurement contract data, comparing missiles to similar weapons in the West, and analyzing the components of downed weapons, to create price tags for various weapons systems.

These techniques produce a range rather than a precise number, but they can provide a clearer picture of the cost Russia incurs to execute its aerial attacks.

For example, the Shahed. A frequently quoted amount is $50,000 for each Russian-made Shahed drone. Others claim that the cost has decreased to possibly as low as $20,000 due to Russia’s recent production scaling.

Meanwhile, hacked Russian-Iranian documents reveal that, depending on the quantity ordered, Russia had previously negotiated prices for Iranian-made Shaheds ranging from $193,000 to $290,000 per unit. Russia is increasingly manufacturing drones domestically in order to save money. The growth of the facilities used to manufacture Shahed drones in Russia has been noted by satellite imagery.

Thus, the price of a Shahed used by Russia is largely determined by when it was purchased and whether the cost is being calculated as the original purchase or production price or as a replacement.

These estimates also do not take into consideration changes made to the drones by Russians at the unit level or in the field. Whether or not to factor in the expense of compensating the soldiers who use the weapon is another factor.

According to recent reports, Russia can produce about 100 Shaheds every day. “.

A major attack involves hundreds of drones, which increases the uncertainty.

However, the use of decoy drones adds another layer of complexity to the cost calculation of the recent Russian attack: how many of the 903 drones were Shaheds and how many were the much less expensive decoy drones?

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Service estimates that the decoy drones’ engine, which costs between $350 and $500 online, is their most costly component. The price of a full decoy is probably in the low thousands.

According to Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat, nearly half of the drones that were deployed might have been decoys.

And these are just factors to take into account when determining a drone’s price. Missiles can range in price from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars, making them more expensive to purchase.

accumulating for “rarer but more intense strikes.”.

However, the degree of variability limits the usefulness of such a metric. Most ballpark estimates would place the recent three-day aerial attack’s dollar price tag in the high six figures.

Evans of ISW stated that comparing the number of weapons being launched to the number of weapons Russia is capable of producing would be a more useful metric.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared last month that he would keep increasing the production of weapons, and drones in particular, citing their importance in winning battles.

“We have seen recent reporting that Russia has been increasing its ability to produce Shahed drones and decoy variants for many months, and recent reporting estimates Russia can produce roughly 100 Shaheds per day,” Evans stated.

This means it would only take a little more than a week to resupply the drones used in the attack over the weekend.

Evans continued, “Russian missile production capabilities are much more limited, particularly of Iskander ballistic missiles, and the Russians may be trying to stockpile cruise missiles so they can conduct rarer but harder strike series like we saw over the weekend.”

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