Donald Trump’s so-called Golden Dome missile defense program – which will feature space-based weapons to intercept strikes against the US – is not expected to be ready before the end of his term, despite his prediction that it would be completed within the next three years.
The Golden Dome program is effectively becoming operational in phases as opposed to it coming online all at once.
Initially, the Pentagon is set to focus on integrating data systems before developing space-based weapons later, the people said.
There would be no capability to take out the missiles using space-based weapons at that stage.
The final cost could be higher but Pentagon officials have said privately it depends on how ambitious Trump orders Golden Dome to be.
Although Donald Trump has stated that his Golden Dome missile defense program will be finished in the next three years, it is not anticipated to be ready before the end of his term. The program will use space-based weapons to intercept strikes against the United States.
The US space force will be in charge of the project under Gen. Michael Guetlein, the president said in the Oval Office last week, adding that he was sure it would be “fully operational” before he left office.
By the end of 2028, however, the Pentagon’s Golden Dome implementation plan, according to two people familiar with the situation, calls for the defense weapons to be ready only for a demonstration and under ideal circumstances.
In effect, the Golden Dome program is not going online all at once, but rather is becoming operational in stages. Before creating space-based weapons, the Pentagon will first concentrate on integrating data systems, according to the people.
Within 18 months, the United States could have the start of a fully functional Golden Dome, where hundreds of incoming missiles could be tracked by a military satellite network and space-based communication systems.
The ability to destroy the missiles with space-based weapons would not exist at that point. In Alaska and California, the United States possesses approximately 40 Patriot defense batteries that are capable of eliminating possible intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Instead, the Pentagon might have the space-based communications and sensor network by the end of Trump’s administration and try to combine it with unproven space-based weapons to shoot them down.
The “aerial moving target identifier,” a next-generation tracking system being developed by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, is probably going to be a major component of the space-based network. During the Biden administration, the first prototypes were purchased by the defense department last year.
However, Golden Dome’s flagship concept, which aims to detect and eliminate ballistic missiles during the “boost phase,” or the first 30 to 2 minutes after launch when their heat signature is at its highest, is not anticipated to be ready.
The people stated that the technology is still in its infancy and that it might take years before a counter-missile fired from space could penetrate Earth’s atmosphere sufficiently to destroy a ballistic missile.
Ground-based interceptors have been developed since the 1980s to destroy missiles in their so-called “glide phase,” but the defense department already faces difficulties with them. Their success rate is only about 20%.
A request for comment was not answered by a White House representative. The defense department “will not publicly disclose specific technical details regarding the capabilities or acquisition strategies of certain advanced systems,” according to a statement released by Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell.
According to two people with knowledge of the situation, the Pentagon budgeted $17.6 billion for Golden Dome in 2026, about $50 billion for 2027, and about $100 billion for 2028. The Trump administration has stated that the project could cost around $175 billion.
Although Pentagon officials have stated in private that the ultimate cost may be higher, it will depend on how ambitious Trump directs Golden Dome to be.
According to one of the people, Golden Dome may need to have thousands of satellites that will naturally de-orbit every few years and require replacement if Trump wants to be able to defend against 100 ballistic missiles, for example.
In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump stated that Canada could take part in Golden Dome but would have to pay $61 billion or become the 51st US state to receive it entirely free. How Trump came to that number was unclear.
When Trump first ordered Golden Dome months ago, the idea of Canada joining the program was discussed at the Pentagon, according to one of the people, but it was more about Canada providing Golden Dome with its satellite and radar data.
The program was initially dubbed “Moonshot” by the White House’s national security council, according to the people. Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary, thought the name was awful and proposed three levels for a potential missile shield system: platinum, gold, and silver. Gold was the only tier that had a cost.
