Though Trump had a 2-point lead in a poll from The New York Times/Siena College released on Sunday, Harris maintains a national lead of between 1 and 3 percentage points on average.
Given Republicans’ current advantage in the Electoral College, Harris’ current national lead is slightly closer to Hillary Clinton’s insufficient, 2-point popular-vote victory in 2016 than Biden’s 4-point win in 2020.
It also makes her generally more popular than Trump, whose average favorable rating stands at 44 percent.
It was notable that The New York Times/Siena College poll showed both with near-identical favorable/unfavorable ratings: 46 percent favorable/51 percent unfavorable for Harris, and 46 percent favorable/52 percent unfavorable for Trump.
Now some polls — like the New York Times/Siena College poll — don’t even include Kennedy as an option for respondents.
In the New York Times/Siena College poll, Libertarian Chase Oliver earned 2 percent of the vote, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein had 1 percent.
It’s a near-identical split among both candidates’ supporters: 62 percent of Harris voters and 58 percent of Trump voters said they are “almost certain” to vote.
In the New York Times/Siena poll, Trump had a 13-point advantage on which candidate respondents trusted to handle the economy, 55 percent to 42 percent.
In the New York Times/Siena College poll, a majority of Harris voters, 56 percent, said the country is on the right track.
Trump voters are nearly unanimous: 89 percent said the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
Harris continues to lead the country by an average of one to three percentage points, even though Trump had a 2-point advantage in a poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College on Sunday. Harris’s current national lead is marginally closer to Hillary Clinton’s insufficient, 2-point popular vote victory in 2016 than it is to Biden’s 4-point victory in 2020, considering Republicans’ current advantage in the Electoral College.
In addition, the race is fiercely competitive in the states that serve as battlegrounds. All seven states that the two campaigns are vying for are within three points of each other in three major polling averages that use different methodologies: RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin. The states where Harris has the biggest lead are Wisconsin (2 points in the FiveThirtyEight average) and Arizona (2 points in the Silver Bulletin average), respectively.
If you look more closely, it’s simple to see why Harris has narrowed the difference and why, heading into Tuesday’s debate, neither candidate has pulled away.
The positive rating of Kamala Harris.
39 percent on June 27 (average based on RealClearPolitics).
In August. 14: Forty-five percent.
At this moment: 48%.
After Harris rose to the top of the ticket, Americans came to know her again, but it seems like her energy has peaked for the time being.
While Harris is far from being extremely popular, her standing as a political figure in these divisive times is not too bad, with roughly as many voters viewing her favorably as negatively. Additionally, she enjoys a higher level of popularity overall than Trump, who has an average favorable rating of 44%.
Notably, nearly identical favorable/unfavorable ratings were found for both in the New York Times/Siena College poll: 46% of respondents rated Harris as favorable and 51% as unfavorable, while 46% of respondents rated Trump as favorable. However, a slight favorability gap favoring Harris is suggested by the majority of the other noteworthy data.
In the debate on Tuesday, Harris faces greater danger as well as opportunity. Ninety percent of respondents to the poll claimed to know almost everything there is to know about Trump, while only seventy-one percent claimed to know everything there is to know about Harris. That implies that, depending on how well she performs, her numbers may go up or down, but Trump’s are unlikely to change.
vote share of third parties.
July 21: 12 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
August. 14: 7 + 1 = 1 point.
Points now: 3 (RFK Jr. not included). ( ).
Record levels of third-party voting were once expected in the 2024 election, but after the Democratic candidate switched and the subsequent demise (or semi-death) of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign.
Kennedy is no longer even an option for respondents in certain polls, such as the New York Times/Siena College poll. Kennedy endorsed Trump and called it quits, but he will still be on the ballot in a few states, possibly even a few battlegrounds. Kennedy was included in just three of the ten surveys that currently make up the RealClearPolitics average.
Polls reveal sharply lower interest in third-party candidates due to rising satisfaction with major-party candidates and less well-known options lacking the same level of name-ID as the scion of a prominent political family. Libertarian Chase Oliver received two percent of the vote in the New York Times/Siena College poll, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein received one percent. Less than 1% of likely voters offered the names of Cornel West or Kennedy, neither of whom was offered.
Kennedy had the opportunity to set the stage for this debate once. Based on his position earlier in the year, he needed to receive fifteen percent of the vote in four qualifying polls between August 1 and early September. This was challenging but not impossible. Despite not meeting the ballot-access requirements for the June Biden-Trump debate, he received three qualifying polls for that event.
Voter fervor.
Seventy-two percent of Democrats identify as “very enthusiastic” (New York Times/Siena College poll).
69 percent of Republicans describe themselves as “extremely enthusiastic.”.
Democrats have closed the enthusiasm gap with Republicans, similar to how they did in the state polls conducted last month, after falling significantly behind them during Biden’s campaign.
As of right now, the two parties and candidates are virtually tied in terms of enthusiasm: according to a Times poll, the same percentage of voters—63 percent of Harris supporters and 63 percent of Trump supporters—described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about casting ballots in the November election.
This carries over to voting intentions as well. Compared to 61 percent of Republicans, sixty-three percent of likely Democratic voters stated they were “almost certain” they would cast a ballot. The percentage of supporters of the two candidates who say they are “almost certain” to vote is almost equal: 62 percent of Harris voters and 58 percent of Trump voters.
Who has the most economic acumen?
Trump has 52% of the vote, Harris has 40% (source: Wall Street Journal poll).
Right now, Trump is at 51% and Harris is at 43%.
For voters, views regarding the economy remain the most crucial issue, which is an ongoing advantage of Trump’s.
When it comes to who is thought to be the most qualified candidate for the No. 1 spot, the majority of Democrats don’t think the vice president will surpass Trump. 1 issue, but they’re hoping she can close the enormous disparity that existed between Biden and Trump prior to July.
When it came to which candidate respondents trusted more to manage the economy, Trump led by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, in the New York Times/Siena poll. (Since the Times and Siena have never asked that particular question, the Wall Street Journal poll is mentioned above because it included a trendline. ).
Between now and election day, Harris’s top priority will be closing the gap to just ten points. In the 2020 exit poll, the same proportion of voters trusted Biden (49%) and Trump (49%) to manage the economy.
direction of the nation.
On June 27, 25% were headed in the right direction and 65% were headed in the wrong direction (average from RealClearPolitics).
In August. 14: 25% are headed in the right direction, and 65% are headed in the wrong direction.
Presently: 27% in the correct direction, 63% in the incorrect path.
Harris could use more development as the country’s direction continues to aggravate Americans.
A majority of Harris voters (56 percent) believed the nation is headed in the right direction in the New York Times/Siena College poll. Nearly all Trump supporters (89%) believe that the country is going in the wrong direction.
That shows Harris is not reliant on people who are content with the status of the country as it is now because more than a quarter of her voters, or 28%, still believed it is headed in the wrong way.
For this reason, the vice president—despite belonging to the current administration—is attempting to stake out a “change” persona. Making the case is difficult: only 40% of respondents to the New York Times/Siena College survey stated she represented “major” or “minor” change, compared to 61% who said the same about Trump.
The “New Way Forward Tour,” Harris’ multi-state post-debate campaign blitz that was announced earlier on Sunday, is one indication that she plans to stick to this theme in the debate on Tuesday. “.
