The Pacers need just one, and their next opportunity is back at home in Game 6 on Saturday (8 ET, TNT).
Here are four things to watch as Indiana tries again to book a trip to Oklahoma City.
Nesmith had some success guarding Brunson through the first four games, but Brunson shot 5-for-5 against him in Game 5.
The possession game always matters The possession game was pretty even in each of the first four games.
Either team could win any game in this series and road teams have won nine of the last 14 Game 7s overall.
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In exchange, the Knicks received 48 more minutes of basketball and a trip back to Indianapolis.
In Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks gave their best defensive effort of the series (and possibly the entire season) as they faced elimination for the first time. Before Thursday, they had slowed down the Pacers offense, which had scored over 120 points per 100 possessions in eight of its previous 14 games.
In NBA history, just 4% of teams trailing 3-1 have recovered to win a best-of-seven series, but the Knicks have finished Step 1. On any given night, either of these teams could win, and if the Knicks win two more of those nights, they will advance to the NBA Finals.
Game 6 will take place at home on Saturday (8 ET, TNT), and the Pacers only need one more chance.
Here are four things to keep an eye on as Indiana makes another attempt to schedule a visit to Oklahoma City.
1. Can the Knicks replicate that level of defense?
With the Pacers scoring 126 points per 100 possessions in their three victories and only 101 points per 100 in their two losses, this series has been almost entirely about their end of the court. The offense of the Knicks has been considerably more reliable during the past five games.
In Game 5, the Pacers’ worst offensive performance of these playoffs occurred as Indiana only managed 94 points on 97 possessions.
They were not forced to work as late in the shot clock by the Knicks as they were in Game 3. A little less frequently than they did during the first four games, 19 percent of the Pacers’ shots occurred in the final seven seconds of the game, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
Compared to other games in this series, the Pacers moved the ball more. In contrast to their previous peak of 335 passes per 24 minutes of possession (Game 4), they recorded 384 passes per 24 minutes of possession.
It’s possible that the Pacers’ initial actions didn’t give them an advantage, which is why the ball moved more.
Aaron Nesmith rolled into space halfway through the second quarter after setting up Tyrese Haliburton, but Karl-Anthony Towns turned around and took away the lead. After that, Jalen Brunson switched to Towns’ player, Myles Turner, forcing the Pacers to make another attempt.
The Knicks played with greater effort and made fewer errors. They rotated and switched perfectly. In addition to their offensive shortcomings, the Pacers’ shooting may be returning to normal after they recorded the highest eFG percentage in NBA playoff history through Game 2 of this series and their first 12 games.
We may see another Game 7 at Madison sq\. Garden on Saturday if the Knicks can put up another strong defensive effort or if the Pacers are unable to make open shots.
2. Will the Pacers be able to stop Towns or Brunson?
During the first four games, the Pacers’ offensive effectiveness concealed the fact that they weren’t receiving many defensive stops. With 117 points per 100 possessions through Game 5, the Knicks have scored 7 points more than they did in the first two rounds. And that comes after Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby shot a combined 4-for-24 (17 percent) on 3-pointers from the corner.
The issue with Brunson and Towns has been especially problematic for Indiana. They have been the series’ top two scorers, averaging 58 points per game on a true shooting percentage of 64 points per sixth, up from 49 points per game on 57 points per sixth during the first two rounds.
In the first four games, Nesmith was able to keep Brunson in check, but in Game 5, Brunson went 5-for-5 against him. Both at the beginning of the game and early in the shot clock, the Knicks star was aggressive.
Nesmith put pressure on Brunson full-court early in the third quarter, but Brunson used the pressure to his advantage.
In addition, Towns was defended more by Pascal Siakam than by Turner for the first time in Game 5. The Pacers have not played well in either game, but Towns can play bigger in the Siakam matchup, which is one of the reasons the Knicks led by 26 points in the paint (60-34) on Thursday.
Second Spectrum reports that the Knicks scored 29 points on 19 opportunities (1 point53 per game) in Game 5 when either of their stars was doubled. The Pacers have had some success sending a double-team to Brunson or Towns.
3. It’s always about the possession game.
All four of the first four games were fairly evenly contested possession games. The Pacers made fewer mistakes, but the Knicks pulled down more offensive rebounds. Shooting opportunities (field goal attempts or trips to the line) were plus-4 in Indiana’s favor before Thursday.
However, the Pacers had 12 fewer shooting opportunities than New York in Game 5. It was their best differential of the playoffs, as the Knicks won the battle of the boards once more and, for the first time in the series, committed fewer turnovers than the Pacers.
As it has been generally, the Pacers’ end of the court saw the largest disparity. In addition to setting a postseason record with 20 turnovers, the Knicks scored 24 transition points, a N. Yep. greatest for the series.
Four out of the five games have seen the Pacers get better shots, but they are unable to take significantly fewer shots than they did in Game 5. Both teams must be careful with the ball and grab rebounds in order to win the possession game.
4. Is home-court advantage significant?
In addition to crushing the Knicks in Game 7 at Madison sq\. Garden last year, the Pacers have won two of their last three games in New York. They wouldn’t be doomed if they lost Game 6. Road teams have won nine of the last 14 Game 7s overall, and either team could win any game in this series.
They would, however, undoubtedly enjoy doing business at home on Saturday. On the biggest stage that the majority of these players have played on, Indiana does not want their winning streak to end. They haven’t lost two games in a row since March 10. The Knicks would gain confidence and vitality from another defeat.
Despite being statistically superior at home, the Knicks, like the Pacers, are 6-2 away from home in these playoffs. Over those six games, the Knicks held their opponents to 46 points on 59 clutch possessions (0.78 per game), and all six of those victories came by a margin of six points or less.
On Saturday, there may be another clutch scenario. All possessions are important.
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