Trump lost the state by 6 percentage points in November, a 10-point swing in his direction compared with his 2020 margin.
Fulop didn’t compete for Democratic county party endorsements, and Gottheimer sat some out, as well.
The county party endorsements were no guarantee of victory: The Essex County Democrats, for example, endorsed Sherrill.
Outside of a quick thanks to Trump, Ciattarelli kept his focus tightly on Sherrill and New Jersey Democrats in his victory speech.
On the Democratic side, Sherrill won despite having been outspent by some of her opponents whose outside groups dropped millions of dollars on the race.
The matchup for the governor’s race in New Jersey has been finalized. Following the first significant intraparty contests since the 2024 election, Tuesday’s primaries also established important markers regarding the status of both political parties.
Trump’s considerable influence over the GOP electorate was demonstrated when Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state lawmaker, easily won his party’s primary with his endorsement.
U. S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill emerged victorious from the crowded Democratic primary, positioning herself as the candidate who had the best chance of retaining the governorship and navigating the anti-establishment and ideological tensions that were already present in her party. Both candidates on her right and left were defeated by her.
The contest to replace the Democratic governor with a term limit. One of two gubernatorial contests this year, Phil Murphy’s, is anticipated to be fierce. When compared to his 2020 margin, Trump’s November loss was 6 percentage points, a 10-point swing in his favor.
Five things to remember from Tuesday’s primaries are listed below.
The Democrats bring back the 2018 playbook.
Since each Democratic candidate offered a distinct strategy for the party’s future and many Democratic voters were considering which candidate would be the most electable, Sherrill prevailed.
Sherrill’s win indicates that some Democratic voters wish to revisit the party’s successful strategy from the 2018 midterm elections, in which she defeated a House seat that had been held by Republicans for a long time. Sherrill used her experience as a former federal prosecutor and Navy helicopter pilot to highlight her “ruthless competence” as a counter to Trump during that campaign and this year’s primary.
“It just seems so clear to me what the next steps are. Sherrill told NBC News recently that it is effectively governed. And I’ve been doing this since my first run in 2018, correct? I ask individuals, “What keeps you up at night?”.
“I tell people that ruthless competence is what people in New Jersey want to see in government,” Sherrill later added, acknowledging that it may not be the most sexy tagline. And that’s what I’ve always offered, and, in my opinion, it contrasts sharply with the most inept federal government this country has likely ever seen. “”.
Nevertheless, the results showed a divided party even though Sherrill won with more than a third of the vote.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who positioned themselves as more progressive, received a combined 36 percent of the vote. Among the more centrist contenders are U. S. Rep. Sean Spiller, the president of the teachers union, received 10%, while Josh Gottheimer and Steve Sweeney, the former president of the state Senate, received 20%.
Trump demonstrates his control over the GOP and gives Ciattarelli a boost with the MAGA faithful.
Ciattarelli made it clear in his bid four years after he narrowly missed defeating Murphy by three percentage points in 2021: He is fully committed to Trump.
Like many well-known Republicans, Ciattarelli wasn’t always in agreement; in 2015, he called Trump a “charlatan.”. He also did not campaign with Trump, despite the fact that he had embraced him during his prior run for governor.
Because of this, Ciattarelli’s rivals, including his main rival, former radio host Bill Spadea, attempted to paint him as not being strongly enough loyal to Trump. Prior to Trump’s reversal, Spadea had criticized him. ).
However, Ciattarelli’s support from Trump solidified his position as the front-runner, hastening the campaign’s conclusion. In addition, Trump attempted to shield Ciattarelli from any attempt to undermine his Trump credentials, a reference to his previous criticism.
In a Truth Social post declaring his support, Trump wrote, “Jack, who after getting to know and understand MAGA, has gone ALL IN, and is now 100 percent (PLUS!).”.
The outcome on Tuesday indicates that the majority of GOP primary voters found Trump’s approval rating satisfactory. All 21 of the state’s counties were under Ciattarelli’s control by late Tuesday night.
By late Tuesday night, Ciattarelli had 67 percent of the vote, while Spadea had only 22 percent. Senator of the State. The candidate who had criticized Trump, Jon Bramnick, received only 6% of the vote, followed by two others who each received less than 3%.
As he joked that he was a “part-time New Jersey resident,” Ciattarelli thanked Trump for his “endorsement and strong support” during his victory speech. In Bedminster, Trump owns a house and a golf course. ().
Ciattarelli, however, spent the majority of his speech arguing for a general election rather than strengthening his base, which is a sign of the line he will have to walk in a state that Trump lost three times despite his progress last year.
Some influence is still held by traditional political machines.
There is anti-establishment sentiment, and both parties are struggling with how to deal with it, channel it, or simply stay out of its way. However, Tuesday’s outcomes also served as a reminder of the enduring strength of political institutions.
Last year, Democrat Andy Kim’s lawsuit during his Senate campaign dealt a blow to New Jersey’s traditional political machinery when a court ruled that county parties could no longer provide their favorite candidates with favorable ballot positions.
That made those parties less influential on Tuesday, but they still showed some strength.
The only Republican to run for county party endorsements was Ciattarelli. Gottheimer also did not run for Democratic county party endorsements, and Fulop did not either. Sherrill received the most endorsements from 10 of the 21 counties, while some county parties divided their votes among the candidates.
Late Tuesday, Gottheimer was winning his home county of Bergen, which endorsed him, while Sherrill was holding 15 of the 21 counties in the state. The sole South Jersey contender, Sweeney, performed noticeably better in the six counties that supported him. He was receiving 7% of the statewide vote and 40% of the Gloucester County vote.
Sherrill’s endorsement by the Essex County Democrats, for instance, did not ensure victory. However, she was lagging behind Baraka as of late Tuesday night in Essex County, where he serves as mayor of Newark, the biggest city in the state.
However, even in that case, Sherrill might have been able to reduce Baraka’s margins in his home base with the party’s support.
The November battle is framed by both parties.
Important table-setters that showed how each party plans to frame the general election were the victory speeches on Tuesday night. Additionally, the general election in New Jersey this year might predict a lot of what will happen on the national campaign trail in the 2026 midterm elections.
With the exception of a brief thank you to Trump, Ciattarelli’s victory speech focused firmly on Sherrill and New Jersey Democrats. She has “enabled every extremist and costly idea Phil Murphy has put forth,” he said, denouncing her as “Phil Murphy 2.0.” He even brought up a crucial criticism of Murphy from his 2021 campaign.
Additionally, he criticized Sherrill for using Trump as a diversion.
“Believe me when I say that my Democratic opponent will exert every effort at her disposal while we concentrate on these important New Jersey issues. Believe me, sweetie… Between now and November, you would be inebriated if you shot yourself every time Mikie Sherrill said “Trump.”. 4,” he uttered.
“But I want you to understand what it really means every time you hear her say ‘Trump,’ which is that Mikie has no plan to fix New Jersey,” he added.
While drawing heavily from her biography, Sherrill also highlighted a dual mandate, which Democrats have used to their advantage in previous midterm elections: fighting both Trump and the Republicans of New Jersey.
“Trump and MAGA Republicans in D.C” chastised Ciattarelli, calling him a “Trump lackey” who shouldn’t be in charge of the state. [who] seek to increase taxes while snatching away funds for education and healthcare. “.”.
“This nation is too lovely to be subject to the cruelty and self-interest that Trump and Jack are attempting to impose on her,” she declared.
“Hard work and hope are the foundation of the future, and here in New Jersey, we’re known for our grit and tenacity — maybe a little bit for how loud we are — but I think it will take a strong voice to cut through the noise from Washington and deliver for the people,” she said. So that’s what I’m doing here tonight. And as a mother of four teenagers, you are all aware that I will not tolerate the inept, whiny nonsense from resentful MAGA Republicans. “”.
Money’s power and limitations.
The outcomes on Tuesday demonstrated the importance of money in elections as well as its limitations.
Even though some of her rivals, whose outside organizations spent millions of dollars on the campaign, outspent her, Sherrill prevailed on the Democratic side.
Spiller is the leader of Working New Jersey, a super PAC supported by the state’s teachers union and the biggest outside spender. The most recent campaign finance reports show that as of May 27, the group had spent an astounding $35 million on the race, compared to $342,000 spent by Spiller’s campaign. Spiller held roughly ten percent of the primary vote as of late Tuesday.
Outside organizations that spent millions of dollars on the airwaves also helped Gottheimer and Fulop. Gottheimer spent all of his congressional funds to support the outside organization that backed him. One Giant Leap PAC, which spent less than Gottheimer’s or Fulop’s organizations but primarily used its money in the last few weeks of the race, promoted Sherrill on the radio.
The other Republicans were outspent by Ciattarelli and Kitchen Table Conservatives, an outside organization that shared their views. Ciattarelli also cited his impressive fundraising experience as evidence that he would make a strong general election contender.
