Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 5/25: Tarik, The Captain (Tarik), The Captive in 5/2:

Welcome to the SP Roundup, where I analyze the performance of each starting pitcher from every Sunday game for my daily fantasy baseball article. I’m sorry for the jokes I wrote in my delirium beforehand. You can reach me on Playback Dot TV weekday mornings between 10 am and 12 pm ET if you have any questions.

CLE (W) vs. Tarik Skubal (DET): 94 pitches, 9point, 0 IP, 0 ER, 2 hits, 0 BBs, 13 Ks–26 Whiffs, 41 percent CSW.

Ace pitchers are rarely the main topic of articles I write, but today seems like a fitting exception. Against the Cleveland Guardians, Tarik Skubal threw one of the best games you’ll ever witness, returning 9 points, 0 innings pitched, 0 runs scored, 2 hits, 0 batters beaten, 13 strikeouts to 26 strikeouts, 41 percent CSW, and 94 pitches (W) for a Golden Goal. On certain days, you simply have to take a step back and admire a master of his art.

Do you know how hard it is to toss a Maddux and strike out thirteen batters? It takes at least three pitches to punch out, which means that thirteen outs require at least 39 pitches, leaving a maximum of 61 pitches to get through 4.2 IP (55 pitches here, for a total of 94 pitches!). That takes a lot of hits, and Skubal never stopped attacking. While the changeup went 52 percent CSW and 14/29 whiffs, all five pitches (yes, one curve for a whiff!) returned at least a 72 percent strike rate. A 47 percent chase rate was returned by the four-seamer, a 46 percent CSW was held by his sinker, and even the slider enjoyed himself over the plate.

Perhaps the velocity is the most impressive. Skubal saved the best for last, fanned his last batter at 102.6 mph after cruising through the outing and gasping it up to 101.6 mph to end the seventh. What a beast the man is. He is the real deal. Put fantasy baseball aside for a moment and express gratitude for witnessing one of the best pitching performances in history.

See how the other SPs fared on Sunday.

TOR (W) vs. Ryan Pepiot (TBR): 91 pitches, 32 percent CSW, 3 hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks, 7 Whiffs, 7point 0 IP, and 0 ER.

When you get a line like that, you’d think I’d be all giddy and all that, and of course I am. His pitch performance is what I care about the most, and it’s still lacking. In contrast to the slider, the changeup went only 1/15 whiffs and floated a lot. At 90 mph and 12point 7 inches of vertical (yes, you read correctly), that slider has transformed into a true cutter. With a 75% strike rate but only 2/16 whiffs, it was effective. Maybe that’s what we want. The cutter (he also threw a cutter at 15point 6′′ of vert and almost 5′′ less ‘cut,’ FWIW) could be the strike pitch along the way, allowing him to keep track of hitters leaning into fastballs. The changeup and four-seamer could be the whiff pitches. With 1/10 hits on balls in play, that definitely worked in this instance, and it might be the solution we’ve been seeking. Better efficiency, Papa John’s, and fewer hard-hit balls. We’ll see if it holds up against a team that is more likely to be RHB-heavy and more vulnerable to the bigger slider break.

MIA Edward Cabrera @ LAA (W): 5point 2 IP, 0 ER, 3 hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks–18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 87 pitches.

Wow, there’s a lot to talk about here. First, the final two batters he faced and the 75 pitches before, those two walks? A ball, a 3-1 fastball strike, was called first, followed by a 3-2 count. I hate it. Aside from that, the breaking balls were the main story here. With five punchouts, six whiffs, and a 7/20 whiff curveball, 11/11 STRIKES are made on the slider. That is. What is. UP. The heaters are the result of a changeup that was hidden away and had a few moments but was too far down to play a significant role. Cabrera needs to find strikes and avoid obstructions if his breakers are this good. The sinker is performing well, but I’m still concerned about his four-seamer (57 percent strikes and his most thrown pitch at 26 percent usage). He switched back to four-seamers, and I’m not sure why. I hope he can keep hitting those at 97/98 mph (+1 point five ticks!) with 13/31 breaking ball whiffs. Doesn’t that sound like something? This is a risk you must take because the Giants, Rays, and Nationals are up next.

Dean Kremer (BAL) vs. BOS (W): 5.1 IP, 8 hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks, 13 Whiffs, 31 percent CSW, 95 pitches, and 0 ER.

Look at you, hot dang! The sinker + cutter handled RHB, but the splitter and four-seamer went BSB against LHB and did miracles (especially the splitter!). For a brief moment, he may not be Dean Werewolf after he signs with the White Sox.

MIN (ND) vs. Kris Bubic (KCR): 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks–11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 91 pitches.

Bubic, you are a great man. With a few changeups, breakers, and four-seamers over the plate, you faced RHB primarily once more, but it made no difference. As the Twins consistently rolled over the changeup, the four-seamer was the only pitch with 60 percent or more strikes (81 percent!). As a result, 10 out of 21 strikes were called. This is our ideal way of living.

KCR (ND) vs. Bailey Ober (MIN): 30 percent CSW, 89 pitches, 7 hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks, 11 Whiffs, 1 ER, 6point 2 IP.

Ober, the atta boy. Allow the Royals’ nightmares to disappear. I’m wearing the crown now! Maybe you can win the next time. I’M DOnning the crown. All right, all right, yeesh. You have my gratitude for bringing your four-seamer upstairs for this one. These days, the command is essential, and you’re still traveling at 90 or 91 mph.

90 pitches, 6point 0 IP, 1 ER, 3 hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks–11 Whiffs, and 27 percent CSW were all recorded by Robbie Ray (SFG) at WSN (W).

Robbie, you’re a great guy. “April’s ERA correlates least with season ERA than any other month” is aptly embodied by him. Additionally, he explains why it’s critical to look ahead rather than extrapolating past performance to the future. In his first five games, Ray was throwing more than 60% of four-seamers and losing to his secondaries in terms of strikes. Just once since April 26th has the fastball usage surpassed 52%, and dominance ensued. Instead of focusing on box score performance or individual pitch performance, we need to take a moment to ask ourselves, “Is this the approach and pitch performance we expect to see moving forward?”. Ray’s slider was much worse. There was no use for the curve. The focus of the four-seamer was excessively large. It didn’t add up, and it’s crucial to pause and consider how those outcomes are developing. Despite everything, Robbie isn’t receiving AGA and will probably experience ups and downs during the season. I am merely attempting to describe how his early season was a glaring anomaly and serves as an excellent example of the kind of analysis I advocate. With a ridiculous strike rate of over 76 percent on both breakers and only 1 in 21 whiffs on the slider, this one can be partially attributed to the Nationals. That line is strange, but it doesn’t matter. Expect a fun June ahead, as the schedule is fantastic.

NYM (L) vs. Landon Knack (LAD): 6point 0 IP, 1 ER, 4 hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.

He permitted Alonso to have an HR that was removed from the books because of a mistake, and the kick-change performed a fantastic job for 76 percent strikes. But that curve messed him up, and even though the slider returned six outs that night via two strikeouts and numerous outs in play, it’s really odd to see it return just 2/17 whiffs. I don’t think his entire arsenal will be enough to keep him past the Yankees for the Cardinals + Giants after he reaches 91 pitches. Even the Dodgers’ plans for his June are unknown to us.

Kodai Senga (NYM) vs. LAD (W): 5hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks, 7 Whiffs, 1 ER, 5.1 IP, 28 percent CSW, 101 pitches.

Although we don’t enjoy the walks, we’ll accept the Dodgers. We’re just glad he made it through and got a win despite that WHIP; nothing new here.

Logan Henderson (MIL) at PIT (ND): 89 pitches, 5point 0 IP, 1 ER, 5 hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks, 9 Whiffs, and 26% CSW.

After yet another successful start, it’s difficult to resist falling in love with Henderson’s fastball/changeup combination, but we have a problem. It’s unclear how much more Logan will play as Milwaukee’s rotation fills up. Although I’m not happy about it, I’m not shocked that he was just optioned because he was the reinforcements and their rotation is now healing. Why do you like him so much? Because the four-seamer can command a very flat attack angle at the top of the zone and throw a changeup to both LHB and RHB. Whoa. THE MAN IS UNCONCERNED. Even though he doesn’t have a lot of spin, those two pitches alone should be enough to earn him a spot on the 12-team. Dangit, just give him the reps. He is going to return.

ATL vs. SDP (L): 7point 0 IP, 2 ER, 7 hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks–20 Whiffs, 37 percent CSW, 101 pitches.

Two HRs were off two-strike sliders down and in to LHB, one of whom was quite good at 0-2, the other not so much. With those exceptions, he was unreal. The four-seamer maintained an 85% strike rate at 11/39 whiffs as the cutter, splitter, and curve cleaned up. This is a more “Mr. Although four-seamer dominance hasn’t been the conventional approach, it’s the “cressnedo” we’ve been searching for. Not seeing the slider excel more is kind of strange, but do we care? I didn’t think so.

TEX (ND) vs. Davis Martin (CHW): 6P 0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 100 pitches.

The changeup was excellent (8/8 outs on balls in play!), and it’s obvious that RHB is concentrating on the cutter rather than the slower slider. Does starting him against the Tigers and Orioles suffice? In 15-teamers, sure. Even though the Orioles and CrySox have remarkably similar records, I wonder how much value he adds for 12-team teams without a high strikeout upside or a good win chance.

Bailey Falter (PIT) vs. MIL (ND): 84 pitches, 5 out of 2 IP, 2 ER, 4 hits, 3 BBs, 1 K, 6 Whiffs, and 24 percent CSW.

It’s okay for 12-teamers, but those three walks and a HAISTBMBWT?! without a win are ridiculous. While I wait for the trade deadline, the four-seamer will always take the lead. Is there going to be a call to the Pirates already?

Walker Buehler (BOS) vs. BAL (L): 5point 0 IP, 2 ER, 4 hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22 percent CSW, 85 pitches.

According to me, the basic plan for Buehler to become a dependable starter is as follows: curves + sliders to LHB, sinkers in to RHB, sweepers to RHB, cutters over the plate to stabilize, and high four-seamers at 25% usage. Refrain from making the change. With the exception of a few sweepers and a four-seamer scattered everywhere, we have almost all of that here. We at least achieved 94 mph (rather than 93!) and a better slider than we typically see. It’s beginning to come together to form a Toby, if not a possible Holly, but I would exercise caution because two Yankees are on the docket at Atlanta. Ouch. It seems unnecessary to me to put Buehler through that ordeal in 12-teamers. That’s just me.

Will Warren (NYY) at COL (ND): 4 points, 0 innings pitched, 2 runs scored, 2 batters walked, 7 strikeouts, 17 strikeouts, 37 percent CSW, and 57 pitches.

Don’t worry, the rain gave him the early hook, but wow, that’s unfair. I was worried that he might not get enough movement in the thin air after the guy had a horrible first inning, calmed down, and was about to go BONKERS for what, seven innings of double-digit strikeouts. 17 whiffs in 57 pitches? I should note that the HAVAA was not nearly as flat in this one (1.2 HAVAA), but that is probably due to the thin air producing a steeper angle (more drop on the heater). PHYSICS, ALL OF YOU.

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ ATH (ND): 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 hits, 1 BB, 10 Ks–18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 105 pitches.

Allowing an HR on the game’s opening pitch is undoubtedly not enjoyable, and the ratios aren’t either. Of course, there was a lovely rebound after that, and that sweeper is still a huge help. It has changed the man completely.

6point 0 IP, 3 ER, 9 hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27 percent CSW, 114 pitches, Luis Castillo (SEA) @ HOU (ND).

The pitch was fine, and Castillo, as anticipated, went hard into the slider against the Astros lineup, which was centered on RHB. While the fastballs did step up at 96/97 mph velocity instead of the ~95+ mph we’ve seen so far, the strike rate was low and there were some whiffs with some damage. But in the end, a VVPQS is not what we want for our squads, and it was a tiresome six frames. Castillo has hit his ceiling, and it’s crucial to remember that going forward, he’s a borderline Holly.

SFG (L) vs. Michael Soroka (WSN): 91 pitches, 27 percent CSW, 3 ER, 5 hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks.

It worked, of course, but not for a win. Still, I think a PQS with a 1.00 WHIP is awesome. The breaker remains authentic, and Soroka is effectively distinguishing between the hook and four-seamer. Unfortunately, there is still work to be done on the sinker and changeup, which makes me nervous about his start against the Diamondbacks. I would rather wait for Soroka to get Rockie Road in a few weeks. But this is a thumbs up.

MIA (L) vs. Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 6point 0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks-5 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.

Even though this was blaming the Marlins, it’s always a good thing to get anything of value from Hendricks and have another PQS on Sunday. Fun fact: Hendricks’ four-seamer, which he hit at 86 points per minute, had five whiffs. Kids, keep in mind that location and sequencing can help you accomplish anything.

Sonny Gray (STL) vs. ARI (ND): 30 percent CSW, 89 pitches, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks, 9 Whiffs.

When it comes to the Sneks, Sonny’s VPQS is fine. This is acceptable, but I had hoped for a bit more from the sweeper and fewer hittable pitches over the plate. We never stop moving.

5point 2 IP, 3 ER, 5 hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30 percent CSW, and 91 pitches were recorded by Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) at STL (ND).

It’s awful. The instant I show Pfaadt The List’s featured image, he decides to back off of his curveball to LHB. We’re going back to fastballs with sweepers and changeups after just a few are thrown here. I want the one-two punch of curves and changeups to LHB, but at least the slowball is there and the sweeper works for RHB. That’s what got me so excited! The Nats + @CIN are coming up, so that’s definitely the ideal moment to rekindle the vibe.

5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks, 14 Whiffs, 31 percent CSW, 87 pitches, Patrick Corbin (TEX) @ CHW (ND).

As Corbin gave up a solo shot and a double (ER later) before being pulled, he came dangerously close to that PQS with a Careful, Icarus. Corbin’s exploiting bad lineups has been entertaining, and there’s a case to be made for pursuing an STL + WSN schedule in the future. For deep leagues, perhaps, but the floor is too low for conventional formats.

SEA (ND) vs. Colton Gordon (HOU): 84 pitches, 3 ER, 7 hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks, 8 Whiffs, 35 percent CSW, 5.0 IP.

With so many sweepers and fastballs over the plate at 90 and 91 mph, I’m genuinely shocked he didn’t get more hits in this one. You don’t want him on your fantasy teams.

5point 0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21 percent CSW, 92 pitches, Gunnar Hoglund (ATH) vs. PHI (ND).

Hoglund leaning so heavily into his sinker for this one is interesting. 33 sinkers against… I’m not sure I love it, and 20 four-seamers aren’t the guy we’re used to (an inch less vertical, too). Hoglund still has some things to work out, and I believe I’m moving away from him at the moment. Leaning away from four-seamers doesn’t seem like the best course of action, breakers aren’t all that good, and whiffs are down.

5point 0 IP, 3 ER, 6 hits, 1 BB, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 31 percent CSW, 88 pitches, Dylan Cease (SDP) @ ATL (ND).

I hope to see Cease develop a more sophisticated strategy for LHB eventually. A DAY LIKE THIS. Yes, he made a few mistakes with RHB as well, but it’s obvious that he wanted to leave with both the heater and the slider, and he did so consistently. LHB? A lot of sliders spiked into the dirt, middle-middle sliders, and a few heaters in the zone. Well, eight strikeouts, though. 19 whiffs. We continue to do so.

91 pitches, 5point 0 IP, 3 ER, 6 hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, and 27 percent CSW were all recorded by Nick Lodolo (CIN) against CHC (ND).

He made a difficult decision against the Cubs, and I wish he hadn’t chosen to have the Sneks next. However, Lodolo increased the speed to 94/95 mph here, and I really enjoyed the changeup and curve command to RHB. I remain inside.

Antonio Senzatela (COL) vs. NYY (L): 19 percent CSW, 75 pitches, 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks, 7 Whiffs.

It may sound strange, but Senz-A isn’t really affected by this. Coors + the Yankees! You all know how awful this could have been, and he didn’t even let the ball hit the longball.

Logan Allen (CLE) @ DET (L): 3 points, 2 innings pitched, 4 runs scored, 6 hits, 4 batters stricken, 2 strikeouts, 6 strikeouts, 25% CSW, 97 pitches.

Due to Tarik’s dominance, he was unable to throw the ball over the plate because he was so distressed. Sincerely, Allen gave it his all, but in the end, he isn’t that good and isn’t worthy of your attention.

Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ TBR (L): 82 pitches, 4point 0 IP, 5 ER, 9 hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks, 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW.

With a sigh. Bassitt has a busy schedule ahead of him and isn’t doing enough to be valuable. Now that the curve has left him like the waning recollections of a fantastic dream, it’s time to make the most of our day. I can almost see where I was—I believe I saw a balloon in the sky, but it was also there—in a pool, perhaps?

Ben Brown (CHC) at CIN (ND): 34 percent CSW, 85 pitches, 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 7 hits, 2 BBs, and 4 Ks with 13 whiffs.

We certainly expected better than this, don’t we? He’s playing around with a kick-change, and as you all know, that’s not the pitch I’m hoping Brown finds throughout the season. The fact that he is a pronator makes it hard to find a cutter and sinker, so there aren’t many options for a dependable strike pitch that isn’t the four-seamer. They will continue to pound away in the hopes that he will discover the correct course. As a precaution, you might want to try this again in a rematch away from GABP. After all, he still received 13 whiffs and a 33 percent CSW.

Game of the Day.

Yamamoto Yoshinobu versus. Yoshi has been killing it, and I’d like to see the cutter come back for Gavin Williams. Is he capable of succeeding against the Dodgers?

I’ve moved the streaming picks to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article, but Nick, where are they?

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Photo courtesy of Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter).