Was the opening weekend of Dwayne Johnson & Chris Evans’ Christmas action movie ‘Red One’, which earned over $200 million, an error by streamer?

SATURDAY AM: Traditional big studios have been screaming at me, “Treat them the same way you treat us! How dare you?!” in response to the poor box office performance of the $200 million Christmas action film Red One, starring Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans. An informed former Amazon employee exclaims, “No! It’s $250M!”. With a $30 million opening after a $10–9 million Friday, we also can’t deny that, in terms of The Rock’s solo, non-Fast and Furious endeavors, we’ve seen better.

Furthermore, this budget is extremely high. That is Red One’s main issue in general. That is, however, what you get when you deal with the Rock, an industrial complex. The issues of tardiness, entourages, water bottles, schedules, studio executives dozing off behind the wheel, and an excessive quantity of jelly beans in Rock’s trailer are all irrelevant. capisce. This is what it costs to do business with Johnson, and only streaming services like Netflix (with Red Notice) and Amazon MGM Studios (with Red One) have the guts to put money into this venture. The Rock hasn’t cut the spending on one of his tentpoles yet.

Today, there is some Christmas optimism that Red One could be boosted by family audiences, though it may not be that much. The film did receive an A- CinemaScore last night, which is higher than Black Adam’s, Skyscraper’s B+, and Rampage’s. Additionally, viewers gave it an 88 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which is the same as Black Adam’s.

In order to appease the irate, traditional model studio brass who want to pair Red One with Joker: Folie a Deux, let’s first acknowledge that Red One’s opening is comparable to the lower end of Johnson’s original IP, such as Skyscraper ($130M production cost yielding $24.9M domestic opening, $68.4M domestic final, and $304.8M worldwide booted by $98M+ from China). One could argue that the film’s execution is more akin to a lethal weapon for viewers than a family movie, which explains why the latter group isn’t showing much interest.

That being said, Red One is possibly the best opening for a streamer-conceived film, surpassing Apple’s Killers of the Flower Moon ($23.2M), and it opens close to the Christmas live-action film premiere. The Rock is arguably the first Hollywood star to have two No’s, so don’t discount his star power. It is anticipated that Disney’s Moana 2 will soar to a $135M 5-day over Thanksgiving opening, which is one opening in a given month from two different films.

The fact that any loss from Red One won’t rock Amazon in the same way that it does the entertainment content divisions of Lionsgate, Warner Bros. Discovery, Disney, etc. is where the established studios of the past—even those with streaming services—can’t handle the truth. According to an industry source familiar with the inner workings of the shopping site studio, “Amazon is a place where there are no stakes.” This means that failure doesn’t hit them in the gut on a Monday morning the way it does for a studio in Universal City, Burbank, or on Melrose Ave.

Red One’s advantages, according to Amazon, will be felt in other ways in the future. That’s what they said about their $100 million acquisition of Ben Affleck’s Air, and we haven’t received Amazon’s financial report on the spike in sales of Nike sneakers or the short tennis dresses from the Zendaya film Challengers. Red One will eventually have advertisements sold against it when it launches on Prime, most likely in its second window the following year. Amazon MGM Studios began offering films for sale at MIP this past autumn. There is essentially a downstream.

I’ve heard from Zen-minded talent representatives and streaming industry sources that, despite Red One’s poor performance, Amazon has won. Oh my god, how? Since this film was created with streaming in mind, Amazon had already covered its extremely high price through its Prime membership. Amazon MGM Studios made the right decision by deciding to go with theatrical. Movies have been shown to have a longer shelf life on streaming services. In addition, the justification for Amazon MGM Studios’ decision to go theatrical in this instance depended on a big-screen release that would cover the film’s marketing expenses, which we’ve been told total $100 million worldwide. Compared to traditional film studios, Amazon MGM, Netflix, and Apple have a different definition of success. In the new Trump era, the entertainment industry is competing with the public’s perception of Hollywood and movies. Instead of sniping at rival studios, let’s address the fact that fewer people are going to the movies after COVID.

It’s a fact that Christmas action films, like Jingle All the Way or Polar Express, have always received a negative review. With an estimated $170 million in production costs, Polar Express stood the test of time and is still a successful library holiday film for Warner Bros. along with Christmas Story and Christmas Vacation. Critics scoff at most of these films, and their extravagant budgets make them instant box office failures. But again, Amazon, that depends on how widely these films are distributed outside of a studio’s own streaming service. Titles like these can make tens of millions of dollars in their theatrical afterlife for decades. Anecdotally, I will say that they should have played it up more for laughs with one-liners; that might have helped it stand the test of time, like in the Christmas Story with “You’ll Shoot Your Eye Out!” However, it is impossible to predict how much love Red One will receive in the future.

Every November weekend can bring in a lot of money at the box office, but this one is relatively low for all titles at about $69 million. Because Red One didn’t do well, Exhibition doesn’t need Amazon MGM Studios to cut back on their theatrical plans. This is especially true after Apple’s attempts to pivot their $200 million+ features from streaming to theaters failed. However, tech companies do consider their bottom lines, as I made clear during the Argylle tanking. Amazon once realized, shortly after Jennifer Salke assumed content control, that the strategy of low-to-mid-budget arthouse prestige fare a la The Aeronauts, Neon Demon, Beautiful Boy, etc. was working, and Apple’s film division is reevaluating its costs. was only directing Prime subscribers. If these new big players go home after failing with a big-budget, underripe product, it doesn’t help the theatrical ecosystem. Additionally, any development executive will undoubtedly be concerned about the poor performance of large-scale original IP when they take on new projects.

Is Red One a success or a failure for Amazon MGM Studios, then?

Whether I receive a press release on Monday morning stating that the studio is fully committed to the next $250 million Dwayne Johnson film will determine that.

We will provide more box office updates later. Come on down to the DGA Theater on Sunset, ya hear? It’s Deadline Contenders today.

FRIDAY MIDDAY: Red One, the Dwayne Johnson-Chris Evans Christmas action film from Amazon MGM Studios, will come close to hitting $30 million on Saturday. According to the estimates we heard today, this family feature will cost close to $12 million today and $30–33 million over the course of three days.

This three-day period would surpass Christmas films like The Polar Express (2004) ($23.3M opening, $170M production cost, final domestic $189.5M), the Will Ferrell comedy Elf ($32.1M opening, $33M production cost, $178M domestic box office), and the 1996 Arnold Schwarzenegger action film Jingle All the Way ($12.1M opening, $75 production cost, $60.5M domestic), which was considered a seismic bomb in its day. They’re all not adjusted for inflation.

Johnson’s Instagram videos, which have received 227 million views from his 557 million fans, are driving Red One’s online marketing campaign, according to social media analytics company RelishMix. Kristofer Hivju at 3.2M, Lucy Liu at 6.3, Kiernan Shipka at 7.1M, and Chris Evan at 17.9M are other social media celebrities.

But without the cast, the social media reach is only 258.2M, which is comparable to The Fall Guy but higher than Paramount’s IF (193.9M followers). In March, the original action film starring Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt made $10 million on its first day and $27 million over its three days.

According to RelishMix, some admirers and viewers who have seen the film in advance are expressing their excitement about it. Many people are excited by the emphasis on holiday mythology and creatures; comments like “I’m happy for a Christmas movie that builds on mythology!” and “To be honest, this looks quite fun to watch” are common. I came here because of the giant snow man fights. Comments like “I see this as a fun watch for the holidays! something to laugh & relax with” and “Saw this tonight” demonstrate how attracted viewers are to the lighthearted tone and enjoyable atmosphere. I enjoyed it from start to finish. It was a ton of fun. “.”.

“This movie make no sense … so many fakes in cgi,” and “CGI mess with no heart or magic” are among the criticisms of the visual effects that are prevalent in the negative discourse. “”.

FRIDAY AM: Dwayne Johnson’s Red One, a very costly but normally priced $200 million+ Christmas package, opened last night with $3.7 million in previews. Note that funds from a Sunday special screening are also included in the figure. With an opening frame budget of $30–35 million, the film has been stagnant for a while.

If you exclude Amazon’s release of MGM’s Creed III ($58.3M), it would be the largest opening ever posted for a streamer’s feature production, surpassing even Apple Original Films’ Killers of the Flower Moon ($23.2M). Before Amazon MGM decided to go theatrical after receiving positive test results, Red One was originally planned as a straight-to-service Prime Video release.

Red One has more preview comps than Elemental ($2.4M previews, $29.6M opening), IF ($1.75M previews, 3-day $33.7M), and The Wild Robot ($1.95M, 3-day $35.7M). Notably, there have only been four non-IP films that have made between $30M and $40M since COVID: Bullet Train ($30M), M3GAN ($30.4M), The Lost City ($30.4M), and IF ($33.7M). Regarding non-IP films that debuted to $40M to $50M after COVID, Jordan Peele’s Nope ($44.3M) is the only one.

There is a lot to discuss this weekend because Red One, which was approved by Jennifer Salke, the head of Amazon MGM, and directed by Julie Rapaport, the head of Film Production and Development, is only anticipated to make $35 million in its first stateside release, give or take. With no major production in the market since October 25, when Venom: The Last Dance debuted to $51M, it is hoped that the film will surpass expectations.

With its anticipated domestic opening, Red One would be a black eye for a traditional major motion picture studio. Take a look at what Warner Bros. Discovery (market cap: $22.8 billion) had to go through with a $100M loss on the nearly $200M+ PA Joker: Folie à Deux, which ended up making $206.3M worldwide. However, Red One’s price represents a rounding error for Amazon (market capitalization: $2.01 trillion).

Amazon MGM argues that Red One’s monetization will eventually be fully realized because it spurs other aspects of the shopping conglomerate’s operations, including Prime Video. Traditional film studios, even those that offer streaming services, will find it difficult to accept that. Unfortunately, Apple is reconsidering its film strategy as a result of its $200 million productions and numerous box office missteps. I’ll go into more detail later.

Amazon hopes this Christmas movie will be a part of the service for many generations to come as it continues to expand its collection. Like Netflix’s Christmas Chronicles, Candy Cane Lane was already available to watch on Prime last year, and these shows reappear on menus every holiday season.

At 34 percent, the Seven Bucks Production film about the kidnapping of Santa Claus (J.) has terrible reviews. K. . Simmons), and his security chief Johnson, with assistance from an underground dark web hacker (Evans), saves him. In this reunion between Johnson and Jake Kasdan, the director of Jumanji, Shipka and Lucy Liu also co-star. It is common for Johnson films to receive negative reviews because they have a history of trying to win over more people than critics. A. Rampage (51 percent), San Andreas (48 percent), and Black Adam (39 percent) are examples of recent RT scores on Johnson fare. Johnson has demonstrated greater strength in his CinemaScores; for instance, Black Adam received a B+ while Rampage and San Andreas both received an A-.

Naturally, Red One has complete control over all PLF and Imax screens.

Through the international output agreement between Warner Bros. and Amazon MGM Studios, Red One has already earned $36 million in 75 offshore territories. That isn’t particularly impressive. However, bear in mind that not all countries celebrate Christmas.

For the remainder of the week.