The most likely scenario in polling analyst Nate Silver’s presidential model is that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, wins all seven swing states in November’s election.
The seven swing states are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
Harris won all seven swing states 15,273 times out of 70,000 simulations of Silver’s model run on Sunday.
The next most likely scenario is that Trump wins all seven swing states.
Silver said there is roughly a 40 percent chance that either Harris or Trump will take all of the swing states amid this year’s election.
According to pollster Nate Silver’s presidential model, there is a high probability that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will win all seven swing states in November.
Leading pollster Silver, who founded the now-defunct polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, has released his own presidential model for the 2024 contest. He stated in his Substack blog post on Sunday that a sweep for Harris is the model’s most common combination involving the seven swing states.
Given that the Electoral College is used to elect the president, either Harris or Trump must receive 270 votes, which are distributed among the states based on the number of senators and representatives each has, in order to win the presidency.
Swing states are those where the electorate is more divided in terms of the political party they have previously supported, and these states are the route to victory in the Electoral College system. The states that comprise the seven swing states are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.
In 15,273 out of 70,000 simulations of Silver’s model run on Sunday, Harris emerged victorious in all seven swing states. The next most plausible scenario is a Trump victory in each of the seven swing states. 13,912 of the 70,000 simulations were won by the former president, including all the swing states.
In this year’s election, Silver estimated that there is a forty percent probability that either Trump or Harris will win every swing state.
Trump’s director of communications, Steven Cheung, provided Newsweek with a link to Polymarket’s election prediction, which shows Trump winning the Electoral College 290 to 248 and taking Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. Newsweek reached Cheung for comment on Sunday afternoon. Harris only wins North Carolina and Nevada in this scenario.
By email on Sunday night, Newsweek also requested a response from Harris’s campaign.
In each swing state, how are the candidates doing?
Silver’s presidential model indicates that Harris is currently ahead of Trump in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The former president is supported by 46.8% of Michigan voters, while Harris is supported by 48.7%. In Nevada, Trump leads Harris with 47.1%, to Harris’s 48.9%. Whereas Trump has 47.5% of the vote in Pennsylvania, the vice president has 48.8%. Harris also leads Trump 47 points to 5 in Wisconsin, with 49 points.
In the meantime, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona favor Trump over Harris. In Arizona, 48.6% of voters support the former president, compared to 47.3% for Harris. Trump has 48.6% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 47.9% for Harris. Furthermore, Trump leads the vice president in North Carolina, 48 points to 47 points.
With the exception of North Carolina, where Harris leads Trump by 0 points (1 percentage point), both candidates are still ahead in the same swing states according to FiveThirtyEight’s most recent polling averages.
In Michigan, Harris leads Trump in support with 48 points to 46 points. In Nevada, Trump leads with 46.5 percent, while the vice president has 48 percent. Harris has 48.1% of the Pennsylvania vote, while the former president has 47.1%. Furthermore, Harris leads Trump 46.7% to 48.6% in Wisconsin.
While in Arizona, Trump leads Harris 46 points to 49 points in support; in Georgia, the former president leads Harris 48 points to 47 points.
How Do the Candidates Fare on a National Level?
While national polls are a better indicator of the outcome of the popular vote than they are of election victory. It does, however, reflect the public’s perception of each candidate.
Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points on the national stage, according to Silver’s presidential model (49 points to 46 percent). Additionally, the vice president is leading Trump by 2 points (8 percent) in FiveThirtyEight’s national poll average (48 points to 45 points).
Changed 9/29/24 at 6:29 p.m. me. ET: A response from Cheung has been added to this article.