An asteroid that burst onto the scene with an unusually high risk of striking Earth has just had its collision risk upgraded.
In February 2025, asteroid 2024 YR4’s maximum collision risk with our homeworld when it swoops back around in 2032 was projected to be 3.1 percent.
Now its collision risk has risen to 4.3 percent – not with Earth, but the Moon.
The Moon, however, remained in the firing line, with a collision risk of 3.8 percent.
That’s probably still not the final word on the matter; tracing an asteroid’s trajectory takes repeated observations, and 2024 YR4 is now too far away for us to see.
The collision risk has been upgraded for an asteroid that exploded onto the scene with an exceptionally high chance of hitting Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4’s maximum chance of colliding with our homeworld when it swoops back around in 2032 was estimated to be 30.1 percent in February 2025.
Its risk of colliding with the Moon, not Earth, has increased to 43%.
I mean, that’s not very high. However, it is high enough to be quite thrilling. Although this impact wouldn’t destroy the Moon or even change its orbit, it would be fascinating to observe how a large crater forms—and it would be really cool, too.
2024 YR4 made a big announcement. According to preliminary estimates of its trajectory, it might strike Earth in December 2032. The risk wasn’t very high, but 3 percent is still worryingly high for a city-destroying event. The size of the rock fragment is between 53 and 67 meters (174 and 220 feet), which is similar to the size of the asteroid that destroyed Tunguska in 1908.
Fortunately, the risk was quickly reduced to less than a fraction of a fraction of a percent, thereby completely eliminating the chance of an Earth-2024 YR4 collision.
But with a 3:8 chance of collision, the Moon was still in the line of fire.
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The risk has now been increased to 4point 3 percent by astronomers led by Andy Rivkin of Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, who improved that calculation using new JWST observations acquired in May 2025.
Since it takes repeated observations to track an asteroid’s trajectory and 2024 YR4 is now too far away for us to see, that’s probably still not the last word.
