“Operational predictions from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) are good, but what we’re missing is more data from all sides of the sun.”
Space weather forecasting doesn’t yet command the same resources as Earth weather forecasting, even though the stakes are growing.
As our world becomes more dependent on satellites, navigation, and global power infrastructure, we are increasingly vulnerable to space weather extremes.
That’s assuming consistent investment and a clear prioritization of space weather infrastructure — neither of which is guaranteed.
Another vital piece of our current space weather warning system is the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) located at Lagrange 1 (L1).
Imagine being informed that a storm is approaching, but only minutes before it actually occurs, you won’t know how strong the winds will be or whether they will cause power outages. That is the difficulty that scientists encounter when attempting to forecast solar storms.
The understanding of space weather has advanced significantly. With sometimes as little as a day’s notice, we are able to detect solar storm eruptions, monitor their velocity, and predict when they will reach Earth. However, one crucial piece of information—the Bz component, or the orientation of the storm’s magnetic field—remains frustratingly unattainable until the very last minute.
Our star’s plasma and magnetic field are carried by a coronal mass ejection (CME) that erupts from the sun. How strongly the incoming solar storm interacts with Earth’s magnetic field depends on the magnetic field’s orientation, which can be either northward or southward Bz or a combination of the two. In extreme situations, a southward Bz can interfere with satellites, radio signals, power grids, and GPS systems. It also connects more readily with Earth’s own field, allowing energy to flood in and intensify auroras. In contrast, a Bz moving north might pass by with little effect.
According to scientists, being aware of the Bz component of an approaching CME can greatly aid in our readiness for a solar storm’s effects. When attending the science and music festival Starmus La Palma, Valentín Martínez Pillet, a solar physicist and director of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, told Space . com, “We need to start predicting what Bz is going to be as soon as the CME has occurred, not when we measure it at L1 [Lagrange 1], where we only have one or two hours’ warning.”.
We lack the data, but we have the science.
According to Martínez Pillet, space weather forecasting will not be as accurate or predictable as weather forecasts on Earth for roughly 50 years.
According to Martínez Pillet, “We are getting close,”. “The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has good operational forecasts, but we need more data from all directions of the sun. “,”.
Only one point of view is used for the majority of our current monitoring: spacecraft near Lagrange Point 1 (L1), which is about 1 million miles (1.05 million kilometers) sunward of Earth. These satellites, such as NASA’s ACE and DSCOVR missions, are able to measure Bz and identify solar wind characteristics, but only after the storm is almost here. The advance notice is only one or two hours at that point.
We must take measurements much earlier in order to accurately predict the strength of a solar storm before it occurs. It would be ideal if we could observe these magnetic structures as they are still departing the sun by placing satellites at multiple Lagrange points, not just L1.
Martínez Pillet states, “We don’t have good data, but the models are there, so we know the equation we have to solve.”.
Martínez Pillet stated that while parking sun-observing satellites at L5, L4, and L3 won’t be inexpensive, it is definitely feasible.
“It will be ours. “I firmly believe that’s our direction,” Martínez Pillet declared.
Why it might not be time to wait fifty years.
Well, the short answer is complexity and cost, so why don’t we just build this system now? Even though the stakes are rising, space weather forecasting still lacks the resources that Earth weather forecasting does. Our reliance on satellites, navigation, and international power infrastructure makes us more susceptible to the extremes of space weather.
Implementing the necessary improvements could take decades. That is predicated on steady investment and a distinct focus on space weather infrastructure, neither of which is assured nor guaranteed.
But it could be too late in fifty years. Although they are uncommon, severe solar storms do occur, such as the well-known Carrington Event of 1859. A comparable incident today might disable satellites, cut off power for weeks or months, and seriously disrupt aviation and communications, resulting in trillions of dollars’ worth of damage worldwide.
“We have no idea how bad it could get,” Martínez Pillet stated.
The sun sent a massive CME into space in July 2012, but it only missed Earth by a week. This is a more recent example.
If the 2012 eruption had occurred a week earlier, Earth would have been in the line of fire and “would still be picking up the pieces technologically,” according to a 2013 paper by Dan Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado Boulder.
Missions, both present and prospective.
Because of our growing reliance on technology, we are more vulnerable than ever.
“The sun is not changing, it’s doing what it does,” asserts Martínez Pillet. However, we are the ones who are increasingly reliant on technology. “,”.
How are we currently monitoring the sun, and what upcoming missions are we anticipating?
Already in action are some of our most reliable instruments for monitoring the sun. The Global Oscillation Network Group, or GONG, is one of these. This global system of six identical telescopes covers the sun almost continuously. administered by the U.S. A. Since the 1990s, GONG, the National Solar Observatory, has been tracking solar activity and is still an essential component of our space weather forecasting toolkit.
With updates every minute, GONG provides a continuous flow of pictures displaying the sun’s whole face. Information about solar motion and magnetic fields, which are essential components in forecasting the potential timing and location of solar eruptions, are included in these images. By employing solar “vibrations” to identify active areas that are hidden from direct view, the network even assists scientists in monitoring the sun’s far side. Forecasters can identify possible solar storms before they occur and improve models that predict the storms’ potential effects on Earth thanks to all of this.
The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), situated at Lagrange 1 (L1), is another essential component of our current space weather warning system. DSCOVR offers real-time data on the solar wind, which aids forecasters in issuing warnings about impending geomagnetic storms, much like a sensor buoy at sea alerting people to an approaching tsunami. DSCOVR is capable of providing a warning of 15 to 60 minutes before a solar storm reaches Earth, depending on the solar wind’s speed. Operators of communication systems, power grids, and satellites depend on that brief window.
These missions create a patchwork of solar monitoring tools with other satellites such as NASA’s ACE and ESA’s SOHO, but coverage gaps persist. That is where Vigil and other upcoming missions hope to have a significant impact.
In the future, the Vigil mission of the European Space Agency, which is scheduled to launch in 2031, is one of the most promising additions to our solar storm warning system. The Lagrange Point 5 (L5), where Vigil will be positioned, offers a distinctive sideways view of the sun-Earth line. After that, it will track solar eruptions from the side, assisting researchers in determining the form, velocity, and—most importantly—the magnetic orientation (Bz) of approaching CMEs before they approach Earth.
Martínez Pillet told Space . com, “I am very interested in seeing how we will begin integrating data from various perspectives into the forecasts.”.
About a week ahead of time, L5 observations will alert scientists to what is approaching Earth.
According to Martínez Pillet, “it’s better than nothing.”.
