Image credit: Georgia head coach Wes Johnson (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) The NCAA Tournament bracket was announced Monday afternoon, and unlike in years past, this year’s bracket came with almost no surprises.
Baseball America correctly projected 63 of the 64 teams selected, with the lone miss being Kentucky, our first team out.
9 Florida State Regional opponents: Northeastern, Mississippi State, Bethune-Cookman We’ve been high on Florida State all year at Baseball America—and for good reason.
14 Tennessee Regional opponents: Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Miami (OH) This one doesn’t require a deep dive.
16 Southern Miss Regional opponents: Alabama, Miami, Columbia Of all the teams that landed on the host line, Southern Miss might be the most surprising.
Picture courtesy of Wes Johnson, head coach of Georgia (photo by David J. Getty Images/Griffin/Icon Sportswire.
In contrast to previous years, there were hardly any surprises when the NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed Monday afternoon.
Of the 64 teams chosen, 63 were accurately projected by Baseball America; Kentucky, our first team out, was the only one to miss. Our final bracket projection included Xavier, but he did not make the field.
Six regionals have been identified as being especially susceptible to early chaos when tournament play starts on Friday, May 30. This is in accordance with the official bracket.
No. 7. Georgia.
Regional rivals: Binghamton, Oklahoma State, and Duke.
Especially to right field, where even low-90s exit velocities at the right angle can leave the yard, Foley Field is one of the most infamous launching pads in the sport. As the nation’s top home run-hitting team going into the postseason, Georgia has embraced that identity. But it will need to outslug three teams that are capable of causing a lot of damage if it wants to make it through its own regional.
Duke is number one. brings two pull-happy left-handed mashers, Jake Hyde and AJ Gracia, who lead the country in home runs at 14. Nolan Schubart, a left-handed slugger with 70-grade power and one of the most dangerous bats in this year’s draft based solely on power, counters Oklahoma State, which is tied for 39th in home runs. Despite being the clear underdog, fourth-seeded Binghamton is among the top 80 teams in the country for long balls and could participate.
The only truly exceptional pitching that none of the top three teams in this pod offer, though, is Oklahoma State, which has an ERA in the top 50 nationwide. Although Georgia still has a good chance of making it to consecutive super regionals, this grouping feels like a powder keg. There will be more variation and unpredictability in Athens if the wind is blowing out, so be prepared for fireworks.
No. 8 Oregon State.
Neighborhood rivals: Saint Mary’s, TCU, and USC.
The most unexpected team to earn a top eight national seed was Oregon State, which finished its first year as an independent with a strength of schedule ranking just 42nd in the country and a 6-10 record against tournament opponents. The Beavers, in our opinion, sneaked onto the top line and caused some people to take notice.
Their prize: a very difficult draw. TCU remains a serious threat, despite having been on the periphery of host contention itself. The flamethrower Tommy LaPour, who has assumed a true workhorse role at the top of the rotation, is the mainstay of the Horned Frogs, who went 14-11 against teams in the field. TCU also finished the week of the conference tournament in the top spot. 19th in ERA nationally—best of all the regional competitors.
Saint Mary’s and USC don’t have the same arsenal. With a 2–6 record in their last eight games, the Trojans barely made it to the end, and Saint Mary’s starts as a conventional four-seed. However, Oregon State cannot afford to ignore anyone, particularly not a TCU squad that has the resources and track record to cause trouble in Corvallis.
No. 9. Florida State. .
Regional rivals include Bethune-Cookman, Mississippi State, and Northeastern.
At Baseball America, we have had a lot of faith in Florida State this year, and for good reason. With a roster geared toward postseason success, the Seminoles have consistently appeared in our Eight for Omaha predictions. Alex Lodise, a serious contender for National Player of the Year, and outstanding freshman Myles Bailey lead a strong lineup, while Jamie Arnold leads a deep, draft-eligible pitching staff.
But because of Northeastern, this regional needs to be given careful consideration. The Huskies, who finished with a 48-9 record and won the CAA regular-season and tournament titles, just concluded one of the greatest mid-major seasons in recent memory. They have a genuine chance to slow down any offense they encounter in Tallahassee as they enter as the national leader in ERA and ride a 27-game winning streak.
Mississippi State also makes an impactful arrival. In May, the Bulldogs fired head coach Chris Lemonis, but they bounced back under interim Justin Parker to finish with 15 SEC victories and a berth in the NCAA tournament. They have been in the trenches before and are at their peak when it counts.
For good reason, Florida State is still the favorite. However, this is one of the most interesting regionals in the bracket because it is paired with a dominant SEC team and a scorching mid-major. In this case, an upset wouldn’t be completely shocking.
No. 13. South Carolina’s coast.
Fairfield, East Carolina, and Florida are the regional rivals.
With one of the strongest and most dependable rotations in the nation, Coastal Carolina is well-positioned to match its record from 2016, when it stunned the sport by winning the entire championship. The core of Coastal’s success has been its staff, which includes Jacob Morrison (1.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP), Cam Flukey (3.16 ERA), and Riley Eikhoff (3.19 ERA), all of whom have consistently logged over 70 innings.
The Chanticleers’ greatest worry is on the opposing team. In an unforgiving regional, their lack of offensive thump could prove costly, as both their .854 team OPS and .154 ISO are below the 70th percentile nationally.
Florida, the terrifying two-seed that no one wanted to see, is a major presence in this group. Last season, the Gators were among the last teams to make it to Omaha, and they have a roster that is designed to turn things around when it comes time for the tournament. The difficulty becomes even more apparent when you include East Carolina, led by Cliff Godwin, who has guided the Pirates to four super regionals.
This regional is expected to go through Coastal’s arms and the pedigree of its two formidable rivals, with Fairfield most likely playing the role of four-seed formality. Conway’s road out won’t be easy, especially considering Coastal went 3-4 against the top 30 RPI teams this season. Any host that drew Florida was certain to make this list.
No. 14 Tennessee.
Rivals in the region: Miami (OH), Wake Forest, and Cincinnati.
A thorough analysis is not necessary for this one. Tennessee is talented enough to make it back to Omaha. With a lineup that can outslug almost anyone in the field, the Volunteers have one of the most explosive rotations in the country.
However, what matters is that they are cold. There are serious concerns about Tennessee’s momentum and postseason readiness after the team lost six of its final seven series to end the regular season. A 7-5 victory over Texas in the SEC Tournament provided some hope, but it was quickly followed by an 10-0 run-rule defeat to No. Vanderbilt is the top national seed.
Here, Wake Forest is the clear danger. Although they aren’t as powerful as they were a year ago, the Demon Deacons are still a threat, especially when they are on the mound. Though they are more conventional underdogs, Cincinnati and Miami (OH) are not to be taken lightly, particularly the Bearcats, who went on an incredible 11-5 run to secure a postseason berth.
Tennessee still seems like a serious contender for Omaha. However, it must quickly flip the switch. It’s difficult to ignore the trend line at the moment.
No. 16. Southern Miss.
Regional rivals: Columbia, Miami, and Alabama.
Perhaps the most unexpected of the teams that made it to the host line was Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles enter the tournament with the lowest RPI (19) and schedule strength (67) of any host, having placed second in a Sun Belt with two bids.
They also drew one of the bracket’s harshest regionals. The best RPI team, Alabama (No. 13) to lose out on a host bid, brings 20 wins in Quadrants 1 and 2, as opposed to just 13 for Southern Miss, and exits the SEC with a 16-win league slate and 41 overall victories. The Crimson Tide are deeper, more experienced, and equipped to inflict damage with bats like the standout shortstop Justin Lebron and high-octane pitching.
Miami is also a threat, particularly after a dominant second half forced it into the field, but Southern Miss is firmly on this upset watch list because of Alabama. This is a difficult draw for a team that might be performing marginally better than its metrics already.
